YTD: 1-2 (-$110)
Lackluster last week, let's see if we can get something going today...
Prediction: Florida 21, LSU 17
3:30 PM Play: Florida +2 +103
This game reminds me of last week's Ohio State/Michigan State clash, in that something just seems wrong with LSU, as it has been with MSU. In last week's meeting with visiting Towson, LSU played a rather sloppy game, losing three fumbles and committing 10 penalties, and as for the LSU defense, it was taken to task by the Towson rushing attack, which amassed 188 yards and accounted for a pair of TDs. On the other side of the ball, Florida has used the run effectively so far, averaging 224.5 ypg on 5.0 yards per carry. RB Mike Gillislee has 402 yards and five TDs already. As for the Gators' QB Jeff Driskell he’s hitting the mark on nearly 70 percent of his throws. Defensively, Florida has enjoyed similar success to that of LSU, permitting a mere 12.8 ppg. The Gators have allowed only two passing scores all season, and they are giving up 102 fewer total yards per game that the offense generates. This will be a dog-fight, but look for Florida to again make the necessary 2H adjustments to pull away with a home win.
YTD: 8-10 Trying to get over the hump, 1 week at a time....
3:30 p.m. play: Georgia Tech +4½
Coming into this game, The Yellow Jackets have been solid against both the run and the pass, netting 13 takeaways and totaling 15 sacks. Meanwhile, last weekend the
Tigers managed only 213 total yards, including 94 rushing yards on 44
Parker, who has completed 53.4 percent of his passes for 866 yards and
seven touchdowns with four interceptions, really has no big play
receiver as no player has more than 18 catches thus far. Defensively, Clemson is permitting 21.8 ppg and 359.2 total ypg and they are allowing 12.7 yards per completion! While Nesbitt is a run first, option quarterback, Tech should have some options offensively and be able to move the ball & score.
Finally, the Tigers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall, the Underdog is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings, and the road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Georgia
Tech is playing inspired football right now, as the team has ripped off
three consecutive victories and the have won 4 in row in this series. I
look for it to be 5 as they should get the straight up win in Death
Valley on Saturday.
Looking at a few more here...
YTD: 6-9 -- Trying to fight back 1 week at a time....
3:45 p.m play: SMU +1½
The Mustangs come storming into Annapolis riding a two-game winning streak led by Kyle Padron fresh off a tremendous outing, throwing for 381 yards and three scores last weekend against Tulsa. Padron
has been sensational for the most part this season, as the sophomore
gunslinger has completed 58 percent of his passes and comes into this
weekend with 16 touchdowns against just five interceptions. On the
other side of the ball, Navy was torched for 326 yards through the air against Wake Forest last weekend. Additionally, the run oriented Midshipmen (their ground game has not been as prolific as years past) will be facing a defense limiting the opposition to just 115.2 rushing ypg, along with a mere 3.3 yards per rush attempt. Navy QB Ricky Dobbs is completing only 45% of his passes with 3 TD's and 4 INT's. The
Mustangs have played well heading into this contest, using a passing
attack to crush opposing defenses (with a rushing attack averaging 149.2 ypg),
while defensively holding the opposition to a low average on the
ground. That should add up for a nice road victory for the Mustangs.
7:00 p.m. play: Wisconsin +3½
halfbacks John Clay (the 2009 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year) and
James White have run wild all season, combining for 1,177 yards in six
games. So, Wisconsin's ground attack is something that coach Tressel is concerned about. "Their
running backs, I think Number 20 has added another dimension to --
obviously John Clay is extraordinary, but you bring in that tempo
change guy and all of a sudden, he hits you with a different type look
and I think he's added a great look." In addition, quarterback Scott Tolzien has completed nearly 70 percent of his throws, for 1,207 yards (9.1 yards/attempt), with seven TDs and just two INTs.
Meanwhile, Wisconsin's defensive play has been good, with opponents averaging only 19.0 ppg, on just over 300 yards of total offense. This
will be the Buckeyes' toughest challenge to date given the Badger's
balance, and OSU's weak schedule to date (The win over Miami looks less
impressive after last week). Finally, the Badgers have won 25 of their past 28 night games overall, and I expect Wisconsin to be right there at the end getting the ATS win (Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings).
8:00 p.m. play: San Diego State +1
SDSU quarterback Ryan Lindley has three times as many touchdowns (nine) as he does interceptions. He will be facing a defense allowing only 5.3 yards/attempt. However, the Aztecs also have Ronnie Hillman, the
leading rusher in the MWC with 118.8 ypg through five outings, who is
averaging better than six yards per carry and has scored a total of
eight TDs on the ground. Also
working against the Falcons is a San Diego State run defense that is
third in the Mountain West and 42nd in the country with 133.6 ypg
allowed. If the Falcons rushing attack stalls, they will have to turn to quarterback Tim Jefferson who has only thrown for 663 yards (five completed passes last week) for 5 touchdowns to go along with 3 interceptions.
I'm taking the home team here as I think the Aztecs will be able to move the ball, score, and get the home win.
A horrific first few weeks. I have a glimmer of hope as at
this time last year my system turned around. Shooters keep shooting...
3:30 PM: Texas A&M +5
Playing the RLM.
8:00 p.m. play: Florida State + 6
Miami is limiting opponents to only 15.0 ppg, while opponents are scoring just 15.4 PPG against Florida State, which is yielding a mere 293.4 total ypg and FSU tops the nation with 25 sacks. However, the Seminoles have a more balanced and potent offense (generating 35.0 ppg & Miami QB Jacory Harris 8 INT's) as in their last 3 games, the Seminoles defeated Wake Forest, BYU,
and Virginia by a combined 99-24 margin, covering all three games. They
also held those three teams to their lowest yardage totals of the
season. The Hurricanes have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home
games when meeting foes with an above .500 record. Miami is 6-12 ATS
versus ‘lined’ opponents at home since Randy Shannon became head coach in 2007. And they are 3-9 ATS as home favorites of less than 10 points. Finally, the underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. In a battle of defenses, I'm taking the points and the trends.
10:00 p.m. Play: Arizona State +1
The Sun Devils, led by Stephen Threet who remains the top passer in the Pac-10, travel to take on the Huskies who are giving up 32.5 points per game and rank 107th in the nation in total defense (440.25 ypg). Last
week, ASU freshman running back Deantre Lewis went for 104 yards on the
ground, marking his third straight game over the century mark. He will be facing a Huskies defense that has been particularly generous against the run, having allowed 234.75 yards per game to opposing ground games. Additionally, I expect a letdown as Washington is coming off a dramatic 32-31 win over 18th-ranked USC. Finally,
Arizona State has won 6 straight in the series and WASHINGTON is 14-28
ATS in home games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Some early games for today:
12:20 p.m play: Kentucky +3
Through four outings, Kentucky is generating 461.0 total ypg thanks to
tremendous balance. Led by Mike Hartline who has completed 65.8 percent
of his passes for 922 yards with six scores and two interceptions, the
Wildcat offense faces Ole Miss defense permitting 32.0 ppg and 346.8
total ypg. The defense has already allowed 14 touchdowns, including eight passing scores.
Opposing quarterbacks have been permitted to complete two-thirds of
their passes against the Rebels, who have yet to record an
interception. Further, the Rebels struggled against the pass in last
week's win over Fresno State, as the starting quarterback of the
Bulldogs finished 32-of-42 for 390 yards with four touchdowns and no
interceptions. Additionally, Kentucky are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road
games. I'm taking the more balanced team and the points.
12:00 p.m play: Clemson +3
While the 'Canes have only surrendered 39 points through three games,
they are giving up 6.5 yards/pass attempt on the road. That could be
the key as Clemson's Kyle Parker has completed 35-of-60 passes for 503
yards with six touchdowns and only one interception. Against Auburn
last time out, Clemson posted 414 yards and scored three touchdowns,
including two through the air. Parker completed 21-of-35 passes for 227
yards and was not intercepted. Meanwhile, opponents are scoring a
modest 19.3 ppg against Clemson, which is yielding 388.3 total ypg.
And, Miami quarterback Jacory Harris has 6td's and 6 INT's on the year.
Finally, Clemson are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 conference games. Clemson
is talented enough to beat Miami, and I look for them to rebound from
the heart-breaking loss to Auburn at home.
2:00 PM Play: Western Michigan +3 (-105)
Idaho coming off a tough 36-34 loss at Colo St (FG as time expired) while the home Broncos are fresh off a bye. I'll go with the home team as this is the second straight road road trip and on its 3rd away game in 4 wks for the Vandals.