99.5% of gamblers over their lifetime will lose money longterm, 98% every year lose online and if you guys are honest with yourself you expect to lose. So how do you beat the book, well this is what I was taught to do by my mentor.
The book right off the bat has a 5% edge on you and that's if you don't take anything over -110 and 99% will take higher than -110 which makes it even tougher. That 5% edge is what is going to beat you over the long haul over the coarse of 500 or 1,000 or 5,000 wagers. No way around it and that's assuming if you show good money management. So how do you finally put the odds in your favor?
You must wager ML dogs. The magic number should be +140 or higher. Why +140? If I win on an average of +140 and hit at 45%over a say a 100 wagers that would be +63 units -55 I lost which would be +8 units gained for every 100 wagers. Now you can't lay any kind of juice for the formula to work. If the juice is -105 even on a total you can't take it. I've had years where I hit 47% and now I'm going to have a very big year. You can't go in trying to win every wager because studying the matchup page won't give you any winners or everyone would win money. Stats mean nothing and the moment you realize this the better off you will be.
Trying to pick a winner is tough because most of it is so much more random than any of you will ever realize, especially at the pro level. The difference between the best and worst is a hair, many times a coinflip no matter how high the odds whether you realize it or not so you might as well take the ML dog. If you don't take ML dogs you just can't win.
Football season is coming up and so is the NBA. How should you wager these sports. Again you must avoid the juice so this is the best way. First off no pussies allowed, no taking +3 or less in football. What is 3 points going to do for you longterm other than pay juice on your losses? These might be the worst wagers you can make. Do you want to push on 3? Than don't make the wager if you want to push, you should always bet to win, not push. Please don't tell me if I lose by 1 or 2 points because it doesn't happen enough times to make it profitable longterm. Say the line is over 3 and it's 4 points. You want to wager 1 unit on this game, 0.75 units on +4 and 0.25 on ML. You will win much more on the ML than most of you realize. The times you win will more than offset the juice you payed on the losses over time and for once you aren't paying that 5% juice that everyone else is.
NBA is coming up, what the fuck are you going to do with 5 points in basketball? Most games in the NBA finish 7 points or more because teams stop fouling at 3 possesions so there isn't much difference in point differential or value between 1 point or 6. Take 0.70 on +5 and 0.30 on ML. If you take a +5 dog in hoops you have to win the game anyhow to cover most of the time. You guys are doing the book a favor by taking the points and again laying the dreaded 5% juice. You have to incorporate ML wagers anytime you want to take points unless it's something like +12 or higher.
You might say well I had a great year in football last year. Who gives a shit, how'd you do last year or the past 5 years or 10 years. Be honest with yourself. 99.5% of you are down longterm and have no chance of winning every year. This is nothing but a simple mathmatical formula where for once you have the edge and aren't paying the 5% juice by incorporating the magic +140 and getting a return on your investment.
I have gambled 12 years and have won 12 years in a row, it's impossible for the book to beat me over the course of a year. It's just not going to happen because the more wagers I make the more money I make and I not only avoid the juice but am getting a healthy return on my wins. I haven't met anyone who has beaten the book with any consistancy every year or even if they do win it's not much. If your serious this is the only way I have ever heard of.
Gambling is nothing more than simple math and putting the %'s in your favor. Winning money on games has nothing to do with teams or players or matchups. Just remember that the next time you think you have an edge when you wager on MNF. One last thing you must flat bet. By wagering more or less you take away the value and formula of your wins. Once you get to a certain amount of the books money than increase your flat bets. No matter how much you love a game remember it's more random than you think so you can't justify putting more on the game.
These are just some very brief and general thoughts I have about gambing theory. I am in the process of writing some chapters on the different sports and how I attack each sport and what I look for when I make wagers. I have some good stuff on 2nd halves in the NBA and NFL and some loopholes I found with certain spots that hit well over 70%. Don't ask either what those loopholes are because I'm not going to tell you. Maybe one day I will write a book about all of this. The book would probably reach 12 people who still wouldn't listen, lol. If you enjoyed this I got some other stuff I could share.
There's only one type of pitcher the Yanks have more trouble than any other is sinkerballers. Other than Jeter and Cano occasionally there isn't anyone that looks to go the other way with consistancy. Obviously if Porcello gets the ball up he will get shelled but he has pitched well since coming back, only one bad start his last 7 and at this price it's more than justified in taking him. Tigers +220 and first 5.
A's -1.5 +170- Cross country flight with no day off and than you have to face Cahill coming off a home sweep? GL with that, A's should roll and Sonnastine should get hit. Watch what a public dog they become getting +$.
Zona +116- Feels like it's a coinflip game and will take my chances.
361-424 +122.56 units Yesterday 6-3 +14.15
The Nets are flat out under machines at home and as a Net fan I watch a lot of their games and take these unders quite often. I always noticed that when they come off a trip they play some of the ugliest games you have ever seen. So I checked and how does 12-3 ATS to the under after a road game sound. Nice let down spot for the Spurs and see them as sluggish in the outset coming off a nice road win in Boston. This is the only game I will be taking and perhaps the under in the LAL game. I don't like anything else but will give my thoughts on the other games because the card is so small.
Den/Mavs- In my wildest dreams I couldn't fathom taking Denver who is a mess and in shambles. Last game of a trip they are 2-6 ATS. The line movement alone would scare me off this game as it's already jumped a point. Sharps moved that up and you guys act like they don't know the Mavs home ATS record. Mavs will crush the Nugs today but I will don't bet the Mavs at home. PASS.
Tor/Char- I think Cats cover but the real line should be -7 not -8. The reason is because Raps are so bad on BB and well it's BB. Even though Cats are the right side I would never give a free point away on a spread let alone lay -8 so PASS.
LAL/NOH- Really wanted to take the NOH because a bad schedule spot for LAL with 3 of 4 and 4 of 6 on the road. But I can't take a team that's still trying to figure out how they want to play the three gaurds and how many minutes since Collison has showed what a big time player he is. This team shot 58% from 3 and the field and still lost by 11. I don't think I've ever seen a team shoot that well and still lose by DD. PASS.
Nets/Spurs- Spurs will win by DD easy today. Nets simply don't match up with them at all and haven't for about 7 years now. I can't take the Spurs coming off a blowout win on ESPN looking great. Line is begging for NJ money and the Nets are happy to get to 9 wins. PASS.
NY/Jazz- All the numbers point to a Knick cover. I'm sure most of you will be on them and for good reason. My gut is telling me they will lose by 30 tomorrow. Could be wrong but I would be shocked if NY covered tomorrow. Those ATS streaks so many of you are in love with two teams mean nothing for todays game. Would never lay DD at gunpoint. PASS.
Season record: 82-50
Yesterday: 5-0
20-12 yesterday 5-2 Thank goodness St Mary's won.
Sixers ML- I hate trends but the one on Covers article last month I have been tracking and really like. Road dog wins SU next game on road they cover. Last time Sixers were in this spot though they lost but it has worked well for me. This isn't about trends or the Sixers but more about fading the Pacers. I really dislike this team and makeup in general. 3 times in this spot coming off a road trip of 3 or more games and they lost at home. Not much to go on there but I think they get their asses handed to them tonight.
Heavy lean DePaul- Only game I really like tomorrow in CBB tomorrow. Jumped out to me SFL giving that many points on a neutral court in a conference tourney seems really really high. Would like to hear from NBA and KS on this. Anyone else please don't chime in as I could give a fuck what your opinion is on this game . Also will the sheep get killed with UConn tomorrow? Won't play it but a home game and getting 4 to one of the most inconsistant teams in the country. Line seems too easy to take them and can see peoples bankroll getting killed on this game. What do you guys think on this. Thanks .
Heavy lean with Sac as they are 13-5 getting 7 or more. I think they will keep this one close. Portland cannot be trusted at home laying points of any kind as they are a much better road team ATS.
Only other game that interests me is the Magic game.
Waaaaay too many of you guys salivating taking the Lakers, just be careful on this game. Won't be as easy as you guys think.
Washington Wizards-If you follow my threads you know I've been on this team now for a week now and it won't stop until the oddsmakers stop baiting people to bet against them. Love how they open Memphis at -1.5. Books did this to see where the sharps were going with this one. Sure enough it dropped a half point. First move is always the sharps, last move is usually the correct one. If it went to -2 it would shoot to -2.5 quickly but didn't. That -1 for Memphis backers is for a security blanket to make them feel safe. No more big 3 and the ball is moving and they are playing as a team, Blatche has been great since the break and playing uptempo fun basketball. Now lets get to the Memphis who has an impossible spot, BB on the road after Kobe ripped their heart out. This team is not making the playoffs and just a .500 team nothing more. When young teams have a heartbreaking loss they can't come back strong the next night as it takes maturity to do so. This team will be hanging their heads and will get run off the court tomorrow by a team that is having fun playing team basketball. Don't be a fool and take Memphis.
Other games I am looking at is Philly,nice spot for them to cover the number and Dallas who should take care of business at home. I'll explain in greater detail later but want to see some line movement and where the forum is going with these games.