Betting totals are the toughest things to cap in baseball and make money. What works for me is go to four of five books online and check what their lines are.
What you want to look for is a consistency of say four of five or three of five books that have -115 or -120 and go the other way. The books do this because subconsciously people think they have an advantage laying higher juice and they want you take it.
These are little tricks the books use and when you see -105 or +100 they think the total is going to win around 66% of the time. Getting a line watcher is a must, you have to know where of the majority of money is flowing, paying a couple hundred bucks a month is worth it.
Some of you bet thousands of dollars a game and dont have every resource available to you is mindboggling. by laying -110 to -120 you have to hit at a very high rate to make money after the juice.
Look for East or West Coast teams traveling across the country w/out a day off and look to fade them and take the under, they tend to sleepwalk through these games. NEVER BET THE OVER, in baseball it should always be under or nothing UNLESS you have two dominant pitchers on the mound and the total is 7 to 7.5 than look to take the over.
Whenever something looks obvious go the other way wins more often than not. you often see two shitty pitchers on the mound and the total is only 9 or 9.5 take the under. the best park to take unders is fenway park and philly. your getting a free run most games because of the good hitting teams and small parks.
If you dont believe me the phils and sox play to the under at home more than any other team and can look this up, this is year in year out. look to take NL teams on the west coast more often as the parks are bigger for some reason and weaker offenses.
On getaway days especially day games these players are swinging early and often in the count and wanna get out of that city it seems. dont look to take unders on sundays, i cant back this up but i know for a fact sunday games hit at a much higher rate with the over.
Sunday night baseball games the under hits it seems almost every game, maybe someone can look this up but i cant even remember the last time an over hit and the fav. after sunday night game the team that wins always seems to lose the next game and the line gets inflated as well.
Also the team that loses tends to do well. look to take the redsox and bluejays tomorrow as well as the under in the sox game. totals are very streaky and when you see a team with three unders in a row dont be scared to take it and take it until it loses as you will see often teams go on 7 or 8 games with unders in a row.
If you think its going to get to within two runs of the total than dont bet it, you have to think two runs breathing room on the bet. if you follow these rules when betting totals you will start to show a profit because 99% of you reading this are losers who couldnt pick their nose.
I would recommend that 99% dont even attempt to bet totals as you will lose on the juice alone, but if your going to remember these principles you will do much better and start to show a profit although i doubt it as most are too dumb to follow these rules. maybe ill add some more to this thread later on some other tricks to look for to increase profits.
231-231 overall +102.33
172-159 2 unit plays +103.33
4-4 +1.8 units first winning day in like five days, time to get rolling
cubs-110 4 units, first 4 unit play of the year, thats how much i like this play
under 9 cubs 2 units