Thought I might drop by and just say G'day to some of my Covers, old and new acquaitances.
Hope you've been doing well and nailing them books.
Most of you might know I've got my own site these days and have been doing pretty good. Not always winners but always profitable. Have a look for yourself at www.aussieguysportspicks.com and you will see what I'm all about. Hoops and Football have been amazing so far. Good luck with all your wagers.
Has the MNF Under draught been broken yet?! Well you wouldn't think so when the MNF Over sits so pretty at 8-0-1 this NFL season!!!!!! Therefore, would I be way too stupid to take a stab at the Under here???? Or is it more like a sucidial case, where one is stabbing his own self by taking this Under?!
Whatever the case, all i know is that Tennessee boast the stingiest defense, allowing just 66 points during their last six games, and they rank third in the league in total defense, where they've given up just 268.5 yards per game (179 through the air and 89.5 on the ground).
I also find it quite interesting that over 84% of the bets taken so far have been on the under, yet the total hasn't budged at all. I don't think it'll move much either. ... Sharp money has been on the under
Pick: UNDER 40.5 for a 2.5 Unit play
1- San Diego @ Buffalo
Did we all just witness the demise of the Bills?
Yeah, that's my big question for week 7: To rephrase it, Did week 5 produce the first of the many more to come losses for the Buffalo Bills - or was that just a slight bump on a very smooth path for them??? I really don't have the answer to my question, but I thought the Cardinals really smoked the Bills that week, exploiting some real vulenerable defense, which had not been exposed prior to that ugly loss (during their 4-0 run, they only surrendered 15 pts PG, before being given a free clinic by Arizona's offense) Not good news at all for the Bills! The only positive is that they now play in front of a home crowd who've been 'football-fasting' for a couple of weeks, and who'll be real hungry now to cheer their beloved team home to a victory after a bye-week.
Nevertheless, what worries me about the Chargers is that they come in to this encounter after a serious blow out win, and this is a perfect spot for a let down for them. Also adding to my concern is the fact that S. Diego isn't a very reliable team when they're tourists....
The good news for S.Diego however, is that they somehow know how to notch up a W when playing the Bills. Quite a few ifs and buts about this game, and that's why I have decided to only make a half time play here. Personally, I believe SD is a better team with alot of momentum and should carry that over in the first half. However, I am not sure if they'll be able to finish the job here....
Pick: SAN DIEGO Chargers to WIN FIRST HALF at pk, for 2 Units
2- New Orleans @ Carolina
Vegas opened the Panthers as 5 pts favourite, but the public has eased them down to 3 at the moment, as over 70% of the public action is on the Saints. But I am somehow confused and suprised by the lack of love that's been shown to the Panthers especially in front of their vocal home crowd! Why so much love for the Saints??? Is it due to that amazing blow out win last week? I don't know. Probably it is....
Whatever the case, the Panthers are very good at home, whereas N.Orleans are pathetic on the road. Carolina has some decent size that should be able to get on top of the "little" Saints. Look for JD to rescue his name and his team in this game, after an awful performance last week.
Another Half Time bet here, as I think it's a brilliant opportunity to make some sweet cash. It's virtually at PickEm, ..... I mean, it's -1, but if they don't lose than it's a push, or a clear winner! You following me??
Pick: CAROLINA -1 to Win first Half ONLY for a 4 unit play
3- PITTSBURGH @ Cincinnati
I really wish I had caught this when it was 3 pts higher, but the total here came down even faster than Brittney's undies! Las Vegas books opened this at 37.5 and furious money came flooding in on the Under, and now it can only be gotten at 34.5! Damn low isn't it? But I have had my eye on this play since Monday last week, and I am pulling the trigger nontheless.
The Bengals are backed up right against the wall, and are hoping to make at least a contest of this one. Cincy has Palmer still out of action and Fitzpatrick has been bloody awful. I don't think he'll be shining against a solid Pitt defense either. Therefore I am hoping (and wishing, more to the point) to see a Baseball type of a score in this encounter of two cripled and offensively challenged teams
Pick: UNDER 34.5 for 2 Units
Good luck to ALL
Before we get on with tonight's pick, let me get off my chest and say how sweet that blocked punt of Sean Morey felt! Seriously, when was the last time you all experienced such sheer joy (if you had your hard earned on Arizona, that is) in an NFL game finish??? Wow, kudos to that Beisel-Morey last minute combo play
Let's get to our play today now: LVSC put their heads down together and came up with a 42.5 total spread. The public put their heads down simultaneously and pounded the over, thinking that MNF on ESPN automatically warrants an over play, expecting another MNSF (monday night score fest) However, My 4 Unit question here is: Why is everyone so crazy about another MNSF? Is it simply because the couch potatoes at home want to see high scoring games on tele, or are they thinking these two teams have powerful offensive units?! Yeah I am aware that D.Anderson has been holding the fort somewhat, but who has he got on the receiving end tomorrow to throw to?! There are too many uncertainties, ifs and buts for the Browns. I'm not gonna' bother to cut paste numbers here from various nfl sites, but If you're a stat lover, they're definetely very unflattering for the home team.
Just to add more woes to Cleveland, they're about to run into a brick solid Giants' defense. Burres said that he doesn't care much about what happens off the field, he's there to intercept the passes and get the job done. I also love Hixon's work in the defense too. These guys will make sure that the Browns will be in for a looooooooong night.
Vegas opened the Browns as a TD dog, and I expect that line to be pretty accurate. It should be a close game and a hard fought encounter. NY ranks first in the offense total this season but I don't expect that stat to translate into a score fest here. In front of their vocal crowd, after a nice win last round, Cleveland is expected to play them tough, although I believe they'll come out short at the end. However I really don't care who wins this, as long as the guy in charge of the scoreboard has a night off.
Pick: UNDER 43.5 for a 4Unit Play
Best wishes and good luck to all
18W-11L Record ...
I really believe if you're a hard-core Dallas fan you should be concerned at the way they've performed so far. I know some of you are thinking, what kind of an idiot is this guy, critisising a team which has gone 4-1 in the first 5 games but yeah that's the kind of "idiot" I am, drawing my conclusion after witnessing perhaps one of the most unconvincing 4-1 ratios I've ever seen! Also, keep in mind all you Cowboys supporters, that this is the league's hardest division, and if Dallas is to finish on top of the NFC East, they have to desperately raise the bar here. The Cardinals' offense, lead by the ever exciting Kurt Warner, has really caught everyone's attention raking in some decent numbers that are definetly worth a look! While we're talking about levels of expectation, the 'Zona Boys sit at the opposite side of the spectrum to that of Dallas. Therefore they have been swinging freely, as no one expected them to be the major contenders in the West! I guess we can all identify with the fact that it is much, much easier to perform when you're not under pressure. This has been the case with the Cardinals so far.
Let me also add that I was quite astounded to see Dallas last week, give up 16 unanswered pts to Cincy before getting their butt into gear in the late stages of the game. I don't think they'll be able to afford such slackness against the Cardinals.
Lastly, I am fully aware and conscious that there still is a vast difference between these two teams, but not enough for the Cardinals to not cover the spreads here. The books are aware of what the Cardinals are capable of and they've only "offered" 5.5 pts to them. At home, I shall take the points, no worries, as I don't see Dallas winning more than by a FG (if they win that is!)
Pick: CARDINALS +5.5 for a 4Unit play
Best wishes and Good luck to all