Taken from blog.trackthebet.com
TracktheBet.com is a sports betting analytics company that enables users to manage their wagers with multiple reports, graphs and alerts...
Bet tracking software has sprung up online over the past couple of years and now is the time to take advantage if you are a sports bettor. Back in the day, players used good old fashioned pencil and paper to track their games; Wins on the left, Losses on the right and a tally to keep track of how much you were up or down. Then came Excel and players took their tracking to the next level, using equations and algorithms to update their Profit and Overall Record. The bettor might have used columns to separate Teams, Bet Placed, Amount Risked and Profit.
Nowadays sports bettors have applications and software to assist with their sports bets and most don’t take advantage. Stock brokers have feeds and piles of data that allow them to choose the right stocks. Consumers login at banking websites and receive statements based on their spending. What’s the difference between those users and a sports bettor trying to gain an edge? All three are managing money, but for some reason, analyzing sports wagers seems to be a daunting task or a waste of time in the minds of some bettors.
Now, we still may be years away from having online gambling legalized and regulated, but players should still understand where their money is going and how it’s being invested. Below I have highlighted six reasons why tracking your sports bets can be beneficial to you and to your bankroll.
1. Less time updating and verifying records
This one is pretty simple. The more time you fiddle with your Excel sheet or add up your profits with a calculator, the less time you have to analyze games. Most online tracking software auto-grade each game, so updating your record is now as easy as logging in and viewing your stats.
2. Pinpoint misconceptions in gaming arsenal
Ever had a football weekend where you went 7-3, but ended up losing money? Don’t worry; it’s happened to most sports bettors at one point or another. But with a tracking system, you can analyze Straight bets compared to other types of high risk, high reward wagers such as Parlays, Teasers and Futures. Sure, every once in while you might get lucky and hit that five-team parlay, but are those wagers really paying off and increasing your ROI in the long run? Stay on top of the numbers and understand what percentage of bets are Straight wagers verse other, perhaps, more enticing types of bets.
3. Document money management habits
Having a strong handle on your money management skills is crucial in defeating the books year in and year out. Just like Parlay and Teasers bets can destroy your bankroll, going overboard on the ‘Lock of the Year’ wager is just as bad. Looking at past wagers and identifying places where you can improve from a monetary standpoint is very important and can have a serious impact on your long term profits if certain tendencies are not accounted for and adjusted.
4. Detailed bankroll and account balances
Make sure you have a running overall balance that’s updated after each night of betting. What’s your overall Net Profit or Net Loss? How much are you paying in juice? How much are you betting per game? You should know these answers off the top of your head. Having an automated system updating those metrics in real-time can be a time saver and allow you to focus on other aspects of your betting portfolio.
5. Identify irregular betting patterns
There are types of bets that, over the long run, are detrimental to your bankroll. But what about chasing games after a not-so-hot day? While those bets may be few and far between, I’m guessing they still exist. Isolating those patterns and understanding why you bet certain games or on certain teams, can go a long way in determining the kind of sports bettor you are and will become in the future.
6. Manage performance
Looking at overall stats, including Record, Profit, ROI and Bankroll should play an important part of your bet routine and should be looked at frequently. If certain stats are more important to you than others, highlight and take notice if those numbers start to shift severely in one direction or the other.
Overall, make sure to review as much data as you can, either on your own, or with the help of a bet tracking software. Analyzing data points will give you an in-depth understanding of what type of sports bettor you are. Figure out your tendencies. Are you a dog or favorite bettor? Do you prefer home teams or away? Any advantage you can muster is a significant one and already puts you in the upper echelon of sports bettors, even before a bet is placed.
Not saying they will, but if they do, they would have 4 wins over teams in the Top 25 (Arizona, Wisconsin, Penn St and Ohio St).
Texas, if they win out, would have 2 (Okl and OSU).
Is the B10 top to bottom really worse than the B12? Outside of Texas and Okie St, each team has 3 losses. If you compare the top 11 teams in the B12 vs. B10, who would be favored on neutral field.. My guesses are below
Texas -7 vs. Iowa
Oklahoma State vs. Penn St -5
Oklahoma -3 vs. Ohio St
Texas Tech vs. Wisconsin -4
Kansas St vs. Minnesota -1
Nebraska -3.5 vs. Michigan State
Texas A&M vs. Northwestern -2
Iowa St vs. Purdue -3
Kansas -6.5 vs. Michigan
Missouri -8.5 vs. Indiana
Baylor vs. Illinois -3
Don't see the B10 losing the majority of these games..
In conclusion, it might not be pretty, but if Iowa runs the table, their resume would be better than Texas and the Hawkeyes should jump the Horns..
Even though it will never happen..
I went back 3 seasons, beginning with 2006-2007 and looked at the Pre-Season AP Top 25. I took those teams and looked to see if they covered in Week 1. There were 2 parameters:
1. They had to play a D-I opponent
2. They were playing an unranked team
So, for example, Oregon plays Boise, both are ranked, so I didn't count either as a W or L, I simply erased both..
Here are the results by year:
Ranked teams went 14-3 ATS
Ranked teams went 10-6 ATS
Ranked teams went 6-5 ATS
Notice the drop off, in not only the cover %, but also the games played. Last year we had 14 teams either playing each other, or playing D-II opponents.
Anyway, this trend comes out to 30-14 or 68%.
There are 11 games this season that fit the mold. Trend states that between 7-8 of those 11 will be winners:
Utah v USU
Texas v ULM
USC v San Jose St
Ohio St v Navy
Penn St v Akron
LSU v Washington
Maryland v Cal
ND v Nevada
Nebraska v Florida Atlantic
Memphis v Ole Miss
Florida St v Miami, FL
Best of luck