Book is offering a Colts vs Saints S.B. at -120
Below that is: Colts vs Vikings S.B. at +220
I personally like the Colts v Saints and think that will happen. That being said, I think the Colts are there no matter what. So with those lines, surely you have to drop a -120 to win $100 on Colts v Saints and then turn around and insure yourself with 1/2 (or $55) your wager on original bet with Colts v Vikings at +220, right?! I mean, you win money or break even as long as the Colts win SU tomorrow. If I do what I just listed, I will get a return of $100 if Colts v Saints and lose $55 for a total of +$45.00 if Saints win. If Saints lose, I will lose the -$120 but but end up breaking even with $55 on the +220.
You have to play this, right? You are getting the teams on the ML in this deal. I love my chances on the Colts ML. As far as the other game, I like the Saints on the ML but still break even or mess with the money so I win a little bit if the Vikes do pull it off. VERY tempting to go large but can't do it due to Jets great defense, but I don't see how I can pass this up if I'm not missing something!
Screw the bad beats. I took an extra oxycodone and I'm now over the losing 4 games by a total of 5.5 points (and the unbelievable fashion of how they lost.) Screw it. I know I was on the right side even though my bookie account will show otherwise. You can't predict 4:00 minute droughts with no scoring or 3 inbounding turnovers in :24 seconds and another turnover with :08 seconds to go, or a dumbass Texas guy turning the inbounds over with :12 seconds to go and then missing 2 FTs at the end of the game (believe it was the same player that did both of those things for UT. Hmmmm...). Anyway, f*ck you, Thursday card. You are mine. And 2H Totals will once again be my biznatch.
*imagine the machine gun scene from Scarface here*
Did this last year toward the end of the year and had good success. Am doing it from the start of the Season this year and seeing if I'm onto something. Last week I had 5 plays that went 3-2, one of the losses being a backdoor. Ouch! Without getting really specific, I basically look for plays that have lower public action but a high % on the money. I then go in and look at which team was getting what percentage of action when the lines opened and how it has played out. Not a lot of matches in Week 2 but that's ok. Here is what I have:
Week 2 NFL: 3-2 LW
Carolina at Atlanta:
Right now, 32% of the public is on Carolina at +6.5 points while 78% of the money is sitting on the Panthers. These are the type of numbers that I look for, but once I went to see what type of action or % was on the Panthers when the line dropped, it wasn't a dominate percentage, which throws me off a bit. I don't know if sharps are waiting and hoping the public pushes this line up to 7 or what. I doubt that is going to happen. I think the best you will see is a +6.5 with some jacked up vig. However, if this line is somehow drops tomorrow before kickoff, I'm going to assume that some sharps settled for 6.5 on this one. As far as the Total goes, 73% are on the Over for this game, and it was hammered coming out of the gates. Oddly enough, it opened at 43 and has since dropped to 42.5 points. Not a huge change, but enough to make me nervous. Either way, a system is a sytem and these numbers say: Play Over 42.5 and lean on Panthers (but watch for line movement tomorrow)
St. Louis at Washington:
Another strange situation. Currently 22% of the public is on the Rams at +9.5 and 70% of the money. Despite the huge public favor, this line opened at 10 and dropped down to 9.5 points. I know it's not a significant drop, but 10 is a key number, so it took some heavy action to get this number down to 9.5, especially when 78% of the public are on Washington. When the line opened, the action coming in was rather even on both sides as far as percentages go, but I have to think that sharps hit up the double digit dog pretty hard to drive this number off of 10. I know some sharps will take any double digit spread in the NFL when the lines drop, as DD dogs have a crazy % of hitting. So once again, according to the %s that I look at, it's a play but not a super convincing one.: Play St. Louis +9.5
Cleveland at Denver:
Currently 41% of the public is on Cleveland's side and 91% of the money. The money being that high is not a big surprise since the number is sitting at 3 points. Like I said before though, a system is a system and I have to stay true to it in order to see if it holds up. Also in this game, the Total of 38 points is pretty even with the public, as 53% are on the Over. However, when this Total opened, the Over was pounded pretty hard, with upward of 90% of wagers coming in being on the Over. This last pretty much the entire first day that the line opened. So here go: Play Cleveland and Over 38 --- (Over looks to be a strong play.)
Baltimore at San Diego:
Another thing that I look for is when an overwhelming percentage of the public is on a play, and then I look to see how hard each side was wagered on when the line opened, as I believe the sharps make plays when the lines are made available. In this case, 84% of the public is on Baltimore at +3 and the Ravens were hammered when this line opened. I saw around 88% of the action was on Baltimore when the line came available. Since the line is sitting on 3, I have to believe the sharps nailed Baltimore when it opened. : Play on Baltimore +3
- Some other interesting stuff are these Totals:
NE / NY Jets: 71% of public on Over 46 yet line dropped to 45.5
Cincy / GB: 93% of public on Over 42 (where it opened)
Minny / Det: 67% of public on Over 47 but line has dropped to 45
NO / Philly: 93% of public on Over 46.5
AZ / Jax: 77% of public on Over 43
SF / Sea: 71% on Over 39.5
Balt / SD: 77% over 40.5
Pit / Chi: 80% on Over 37.5
Just crazy high percentages on a ton of Overs this week. I think something has got to give. I may update this as I take a closer look at the Totals and also a few games are missing the money % and I want to see that.
I was going to do my whole "Whatchya gonne do when Graig Cooper runs all over you, Brother?!" thing....or maybe throw in Jacory Harris throwing all over GTech, but I'm just going to be straight up, no gimmicks.
Yes, I'm a diehard Miami fan, however, I can look at Miami games objectively and pretty much be right on. I've stayed away from dropping money on (or against) Miami for the last 4 years so. I can tell you that things have changed this year. This will be my 2nd straight game dropping $$$ on Miami. People need to understand that the Canes had the worst possible guy running their offense over the last two year. Patrick Nix was HORRIBLE! Randy Shannon finally did something right and hired Mark Whipple to take over the offense. This guy has a plethora of experience at both the college and NFL level. You saw him exploit mismatch after mismatch vs. Florida State a few weeks ago. If you are one of those saying that "Florida St ain't shiiiittt" because J'Ville took them down to the wire last week, then think again. They clearly were hungover after devastating loss to Miami and didn't give a f*ck about that game but they were able to pull it out at the end to win it. All that being said, Miami FINALLY has an offense and a QB again! Shannon has put together some stud recruiting classes and they have studs at QB, WR and RB now. They will put up points on G. Tech, I promise you. For those of you concerned that G Tech put up 472 rushing yards on the Canes last year, let's consider a few things. Miami started true freshman all over the field last year and went up against legit D1 players with with their High School bodies. There have been talks about how the defense got bounced around last year, but they are now bigger and stronger and vowed to stop the run. These true freshman has no idea wtf a spread option was, and they had a little time to prepare for it last year. This year is different, as they are more seasoned and have had 10 days to prepare for this spread option attack. The other thing that people are missing is that Miami brought in John Lovett as their new D-Coordinator. As I wasn't real impressed with him vs. Florida State, I shall remind you that Lovett is from North Carolina and please look at the results from the UNC vs. G Tech game last year. If you don't want to go search for it, I'll just tell you that UNC won that game last year 28-7, which means Lovett and his defense held G Tech to just 7 points. So I feel secure that Miami will more than hold their own vs. G Tech's spread option this year.
I could probably go on, answer questions for you etc. , and I may just do that tomorrow. Anyway, I see some cappers that I really respect jumping on G Tech +5.5 and I see plenty of people following them. I'm NOT saying that they won't be right with their picks! But I'm saying that I think they are wrong. Too much emphasis on last year and the previous 4 years, guys. Miami finally got some studs back in there and finally found a great offensive coordinator that knows how to use those studs. Miami will most likely lose a few games this season, especially if their secondary doesn't get better. However, I don't see this year's Miami team losing to a one dimensional running team. Just won't happen, in my opinion. The defense has grown up, gotten bigger and stronger, and they almost know what they are doing now. Let me add that the Canes get back two starters in the secondary that didn't play against Florida State, due to injury, and they also get Moncur back on defensive end, who didn't play vs. FSU due to injury. The point of this board is to try and help people win money, and I personally think that Miami is the play this Thursday night. I will keep riding them until Vegas catches up on the fact that the Canes have an offense for the first time since Dorsey and company were walking the grounds in Coral Gables.
Miami -4.5 (what i got it at) or -5.5 over Georgia Tech.