29-27-2 overall, 9-7-1 on GOY plays....
Thursday recap: Lost with North Texas +5 as they completely left the building at half time. 21 points in the second half was a complete joke after leading by one.
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Friday:
This is it for the BANK.......the GOY plays have been "close" but no cigar lately. I game myself an ultimatum today.
WIN OR GO HOME.
I feel like the write ups have been right on the money with how the game has been played. The variables that exist were simply outweighed. I did my research and I know the two games I am playing very well. I am going to leave the write ups out today in order to change the "mojo" Here is the ultimatum terms.....
GO 2-0 ON TODAYS' PICKS OR GO HOME! That's right, I'm done posting on Covers if one or both lose today. Do what you wish but here we go......this isn't a tout ploy, simply a request to myself to take a break if I can't get the wheels rolling again.
WIN OR GO HOME GOY : Siena Saints + 9.5
WIN OR GO HOME GOY : Cornell Big Red + 10
Good Luck!
24-17-1 overall, 9-6-1 on GOY plays....
Wednesday recap:
Lost last night with Rice in a tough one....Rice was outscored 19-9 in overtime to blow the cover. I guess if they would have scored more than 18 points in the first half things would have gone better. I definitely feel like it was the right play so the confidence isn't wavered. Went 3-1 on the smaller plays so there was some positive from that.
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Thursday:
For Thursday I am loving the Sun Belt Conference and 22nd ranked team in the nation at 78 points per game. North Texas is on the road, I know, not the best environment considering they have lost their last three road games and are coming off of a horrible home loss to Louisiana Monroe. That exact scenario is one of the reasons I love them tonight at Arkansas St. North Texas is 5-1 against the spread as a road underdog of 3-6 points. They are also 20-12 against the spread in road games over the past three seasons. The road team is 13-4-1 against the spread in the last 18 meetings while the underdog in the game is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings. For tonight, I am going big on the North Texas Mean Green!
The home team has only won 5 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. Of those 10 matchups, Arkansas St. only managed one home victory and three victories overall. Jacob Holmen's injury isn't going to be anything big to worry about. He has only averaged 15% possession production all season. North Texas shoots 48% from the field on the road which means they aren't intimidated. They also waxed Arkansas St. at home earlier in the year by 19 points. They shot 55% from the field and 58% from the perimeter. Arkansas State are only 3-6 against the spread at home this season. I know, I know....Arkansas St. is undefeated at home.
Besides the Denver blowout, here is Arkansas St.'s margin of victory in their home contests: 1, 3, 4, 9, 8, and 12. They haven't blown anybody out and they certainly don't play the defense to shut teams down. Arkansas St. has the 210th ranked defense in efficiency. North Texas dominate Arkansas State statistically in FTA/FGA, 3pt shooting, FG shooting, turnover ratio, and offensive efficiency. I know they aren't a defensive dominant team but when you average 78 points per game there aren't a lot of teams to worry about keeping up with you. Arkansas St. average 68 points per game and have only covered two of their last five at home.
One more thing to look at is coming on Saturday. Arkansas St. has a big matchup with rival Arkansas Little Rock on Saturday afternoon that could be a game to clinch the Sun Belt West division. North Texas have nothing to lose and are coming off of a crushing home loss. They are going to be playing with some anger and pride to revenge that loss. North Texas have an RPI ranking of 157 and Arkansas St. is at 193, mostly due to playing Texas Tech, Kansas, Rice, and LSU in the non-conference schedule.
Thursday Underdog Special GOY # 17: North Texas + 5
21 - 15 - 1 ytd, 9 - 5 - 1 on GOY plays.....
Tuesday recap:
Lost with Northern Iowa laying six points. This was a typical scenario of a team abandoning their strengths. The perimeter shooting and ball handling was inconsistent last night. There were too many times where possessions were lasting 6-10 seconds and rushed shots being taken. Either way, it was the wrong side. The final card was 2-1 last night so here we go for Wednesday.
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Wednesday:
When I look at the previous meeting between Rice and SMU I see a few things. First off, Rice lost the game by seven points at home. In that match-up, SMU shot 56% (27-48) from the floor and 42% (11-26) from the three point line. They only committed 15 turnovers which is a pretty solid stat line for a team that averages 22 per game. So I asked myself....shouldn't SMU have beaten this team by more? The answer to that question is no. I like Rice's makeup for tonight's game. Rice did shoot 40% from the three point line in that game, even though it was only with 15 attempts. Rice also out rebounded SMU 32-21 and 11-2 on the offensive end. What that tells me is that Rice gives itself 2nd chance opportunities.
Rice have covered three of their last five on the road including wins @ Tulane and Central Florida. They played UAB tough for 18 minutes and let the game get away in the final two. Rice are 6-3 against the spread on the road this season. Rice's last four losses have come by 6,6,7,and 11. In other words, they don't get blown out and tend to keep most contests close. I attribute that to their ability to keep teams off of the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding percentage to other teams while on defense is 27%, which ranks 10th nationally. SMU is a solid shooting team but if the rock doesn't fall, they aren't too inclined to get the offensive board. SMU ranks 337th in offensive rebounding and 264th in turnover percentage. Sometimes their quick pace gets the better of them and they let sloppy play dictate their play. SMU is an excellent shooting three point team but they tend to live and die from it.
The betting public is correct when moving money line in SMU games 29.8% (14-33) of the time over the past 3 seasons. In this case, the line is moving in favor of SMU as of 7:45am. Rice are 2-0 against the spread @ SMU over the past three seasons. Rice are 4-1 against the spread after coming off of a win while allowing 60 points or less. They are 11-3 as road underdogs and 11-3 against the spread in their last fourteen games overall. The road team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four meetings. That also goes toe in toe with Rice being 5-2 against the spread in the last seven @ SMU. Rice is 9-4 against the spread after coming off of three days rest, averaging 66.9 points per game. On the other side of things, SMU is 5-5 against the spread on three days rest while only scoring 59 points per game. SMU is 7-12 as a favorite over the past three seasons. Tonight's game will be a different story. Rice is coming off of a confidence building win vs Memphis and SMU is coming off of a puzzling beat down by Tulsa at home. I look for Rice to keep the tempo up tonight and play fundamentally sound basketball. If they play their style, covering the number and possibly winning SU shouldn't be a problem. I am going to make a strong run with the Rice Owls tonight! Good Luck.
Wednesday's Underdog Special GOY # 15: Rice Owls + 5
smaller plays (not GOY):
- Michigan +3.5
- Tulsa +4
- Drake -3
- Creighton +10
19-14-1 overall ytd, 9-4-1 on GOYs......
1-0-1 last night with Syracuse winning outright and UNC Greensboro giving up 4 points in 5 seconds to throw away the cover.
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For Tuesday, I love a good ole fashioned MVC home revenge game. Northern Iowa couldn't have looked more flat and uninterested in their last match-up with Indiana State. If you look at Indiana State's record over the past two months you'll notice they haven't fared well against the upper half of the league. This game will be a home invasion for Northern Iowa. The turnover battle will be huge as Indiana State averages over 21 turnovers per game and Northern Iowa causes 20 per game. Northern Iowa does not turn the ball over. They have excellent point guard play and have patience around the perimeter. They shoot almost 50% from the floor and knock down the critical FT's when necessary as they average 76% per outing.
Kwadzo Ahelegbe is a match-up nightmare for Indiana State and he has a counter part in crime, Anthony James. Ahelegbe ranks nationally in eight offensive/defensive categories. He brings the senior leadership that this team needs. This is the last regular season home game for Northern Iowa and you can expect the team to be fired up tonight. All of the underdog and ISU trends say to go with the Sycamores which is exactly why the Panthers of UNI are going to bury them. Don't sleep on a team that was one of the favorites to win the league this season. For tonight, I like the Northern Iowa Panthers to get revenge on their away blowout loss.
Home Revenge Special GOY # 15: Northern Iowa Panthers -6
Lost with St. Bonaventure +10 yesterday as Richmond played like their tournament lives depended on it...which it did. For tonight, I love Syracuse to write off the haters and UNC Greensboro to come out hot after losing 99-90 just a couple days ago.
Tournament time is around the corner and I think the Orange have something to prove heading into Big East tourney play. I don't have time for my extended write ups due to work restraints so it's pretty much up to you today.UNC Greensboro is 4-1 ATS against W. Carolina over the past three seasons. I can see both teams winning straight up. Greensboro are 7-1-2 ATS in the last ten meetings vs the Southern Conference opponents. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six. Syracuse have lost three road games this season against Louisville, Marquette, and Pitt.....this will not be one of them. Like I said, I cannot give you the extended write ups but these two games are the ones I am PRIME on tonight. Best of luck!
Underdog Special GOY #13: Syracuse +4
Underdog Special GOY #14: UNC Greensboro +4
Best of luck,
THE BANK