What happened to Tom Brady? It wasn't the Giants Defense that beat him yesterday, not one bit. Tom Brady showed us that he is human, that he makes mistakes, that he is an aging Vet. He always reminded me of Derek Jeter, saying the right thing, and acting the right way in front of the camera; most importantly being CLUTCH. Yesterday Brady showed us that just like Jeter he isn't perfect, isn't always clutch, and is on the decline of an illustrious career.
Tom Brady checked out in the biggest game of the year. Sometimes I wondered if Tom actually just closed his eyes and chucked the ball down the field like a young Eli use to do to Plaxico and Tyree. The physical tools are still there, but mentally from the preparation to split second decisions I don't it anymore from Brady.
I know Tom will bounce back and make a few more runs, but is this the beginning of the end for "Captain America" ?
Bama -2 (1.5 units)
This is my "opening day". I typically start off the wagering season with the BCS NC Game and usually stop sometime around the MLB playoffs/World Series. After a very profitable season last year starting with Auburn, then the Mavs, and grinding out the bases, I have been waiting for this day for a long time. I don't mess with the NFL or College football during the regular season because I personally can't find a trend.
As for this game: I was at the first match up, it started off as a nice sunny day in T Town, the sun went down and it got in the 30's with the wind howling. Nick Saban made some terrible calls, didn't trust his team, and the 2 kickers for Bama were terrible. Their long distance kicker was even worse finishing the year something like 2/11 ish. Can't trust that kid, but the Tide won't need to, I see them winning this game convincingly. Pulling away at the end to win by 10.
The game will be close for 3 quarters, but Trent will run like a beast, a young Stephen Jackson, following his blockers and stiff arming people in the face. Nick Saban will not lose to the same team/coach twice in one year, he will have a scheme that is superior and will confuse the heck out of both LSU QB's. Bama has the best defense in college in 50 years, a serious revenge factor, a better coach, a better team, and the line is moving in our favor. Public is all over LSU and the odd's keep going up on Bama. I just grabbed it on a .5 point pull back from -2.5. I was waiting all afternoon for it to drop back down and it did. As soon as it came out, I knew the sharps were going to be on Bama.
Either way just my 2 cents, haven't posted in a few months, just been watching very closely. ROLL TIDE!!!!!!!
+9.99 units last week
+1.22 units this week
Under -9.5 (Even)
I like Oakland in this game, but can not bet against the pinstripes.
Harden shuts down the Yanks, and Phil is unpredictable. Look up all the advanced stats, I can't list them I am working. Good luck guys.
A 5-4 game wins the under for 1 unit.
+60 units: Season (+/- 4 units)
+9.99 units: last week
+2.50 units: week to date
REDS -113 (2 Units)
Well this one is for you 7257Melrose, just for telling me that this game "screams" Marlins. Well I'm here to tell YOU my research tells another story. The outcome is unknown, but I will take my chances on the big red machine with a full and healthy lineup, vs Javy "junk" Vasquez and a limited and beat up Fish team.
The current Reds lineup has seen Javy a lot. This boy has been around the block and back, everyone knows Javy's stuff. He won't be fooling anyone today at 4pm ET. The 2 power hitter for the Reds are Lefties and the Righties- Ramon Hernandez, Renteria, and Philips have seen him 67 times total.
The Fish are dismal right now. If by slight chance they get a lead, they blow it. The team is "reeling" pun intended, and without Sanchez and Ramirez in the lineup, I don't see them out scoring the Reds. Additionally, there is an element of surprise, Homer Bailey has only faced this Fish lineup for a couple AB's each with their best hitters this afternoon, Stanton and Morrison having 2 AB's vs him. Homer shuts down Righties which make up 80% of the Fish team, the left side worries me with Dobbs going 3/4 last time head to head. Homer lets up .75 HR/9 against Righties strikes out close to 7 per/9 from both sides, with a 3.50 FIP vs Righties. Gota go back to work, done listing stats. Win or lose, I still booze, lets go REDS.
Starting pitching favors Reds here, Hitting favors the Reds(BIG TIME), Pen favors the Reds IMO (they are ranked lower, but fish are falling apart and tired in the pen), Injuries, splits all favor the Reds.
Let the haters hate, but I collect $ every Wednesday. Which happens to be today
Last week +9.99 units
Texas -146 (1 unit)
This is a Bedard fade. There are many respected cappers on the under in this one, but I see Texas getting to Erik early and often. When Bedard throws over a 100 pitches (threw ~102 last time out) he typically has command issues the next outing. I see him being pulled in the 4th-5th. Additionally Texas has seen him so many times with all their big guns having 10-15 at bats with great success, I think there is a big time pitching advantage, hitting advantage, home field advantage. With the revamped bull pen (Arthur Rhodes is gone and now is STL's problem) Texas is going to make another run at the AL title.
Boston is spent tonight. They have only Gonzalez and Crawford who can cause trouble in the line-up and CJ owns Crawford, Gonzo has hit CJ hard but the sample size is small and I will take my chances with a lefty vs lefty match up as the only real battle this game.
Texas should take this one easily, but anything can happen. Appreciate any discussion.