Posted Sunday, May 03, 2009 09:59 AMNYM / PHI --
John Maine comes into the game having a brutal start to his young 2009 campaign as he has struggled to a 1-2 record with a 5.40 ERA. His overall stats for 2009: 4GS 21.2 IP 17H 14R 13ER 12BB 15K -- 1.34 WHIP .218 BAA. On thee road in 2009, both Maine and the NYM have yet to record a W as he is 0-1 with a 5.91 ERA away from Citi-Bank Field this year. His stats on the road in '09: 2GS 10.2 IP 9H 7ER 6BB 7K -- 1.41 WHIP .231BAA. In his two road starts the NYM are also 0-2 as they have lost to FLA (5-4) and STL (5-2). In 2008, Maine was decent on the road going 5-6 with a 3.69 ERA. The NYM in his 14 road starts had a total record of 6-8. Against PHI in 2008 Maine was a respectable 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA (3GS 18.2 IP 12H 7ER 4HR 9BB 11K -- 1.13WHIP .190 BAA!!!). In his lone start at Citizens Bank Park, Maine was equally as decent as he threw 5.2IP and gave up 3ER on 1H in a 9-4 NYM win. The NYM loved when Maine was on the hill against the Phils in 2008 though - as they were 3-0 overall against the Phils in games Maine started. In 2007 against PHI - it was more of the same as Maine had one start in PHI and he and the NYM came away with a 5-2 victory. He threw 8 innings of 1R ball in that contest. In his career against PHI at Citizens Bank ballpark Maine is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA (3GS 19.2IP 13H 7R 6ER 2HR 2BB 15K -- 0.76 WHIP!!! .186BAA!!). As a matter of fact, a deeper look at his career stats and you will see that the NYM have never lost a start Maine has made in Citizens Bank Park (3-0)!
Some of the PHI regulars against Maine: Rollins (4-25/32B, 2RBI, BB, 3K); Victorino (6-19/HR, RBI, BB, 2K, 3/4SB); Utley (7-22/2 2B, HR, 3RBI, 3BB 2K); Howard (5-23/2HR, 6RBI, 3BB, 4K); Ibanez (0-3); Coste (2-7/2 2B, BB); Feliz (3-7/2B, HR, RBI, BB, K); Ruiz (4-11/BB, K).
On the flip side, Blanton is still looking to get off the schnide in '09 as he comes in with an 0-2 record and a horrendous 8.41 ERA (4GS 20.1 IP 33H 19ER 6HR 7BB 20K -- 1.97 WHIP .371BAA!!!). The Phils, obviously, have struggled to keep up with the amount of R allowed in his games, but they are a respectable 2-2 overall in starts by Blanton. In the 2 games they have won, they have gotten the W with scores of 12-11 and 13-11. At home in 2009, Blanton has even worse stats as he is 0-1 with a 10.05 ERA at Citizens Bank Park through three starts against ATL, MIL, and WASH (3GS 14.1 IP 25H 16ER 5HR 6BB 15K - 2.16 WHIP .391 BAA!!!). Somehow, the Phils are 2-1 WL in his home starts overall. In 2008, Blanton made his first start after being aquired by PHI in the trade against the NYM - but it was at Shea stadium - and the Phils won the game 8-6. He pitched okay overall (6IP 8H 5ER 2HR 3BB K). Blanton did face the NYM in 2007, although not while with PHI and also in NY, but pitched very well in a 1-0 loss. He threw 8 innings of 5H shutout ball against them.
One thing that stands out in this game is the Phils love for Blanton at Citizens Bank Park. After the trade last year - PHI was 6-1 in games Blanton started at home and add to that they are 2-1 in his home starts this year and you can see that the Phils just find ways to get the W at home when Blanton starts the game (at an 8-2 clip overall!!!). Even though Maine is 5-0 in his career against the Phils, I think especially after their walk-off W last night, they will coast to a low-scoring victory today.
My official lean for this game:
PHI (-102)
UNDER 10.5
YOU ARE NOT IN ON MY PAY SERVICES!!!!
THIS MORNING PROVIDED ANOTHER HUGE PAYDAY AS WE WENT 2-0 WITH A MONSTROUS (+220) LAA PICK OVER NYY AND THE OVER 10 IN THE GAME!!!!
16-4 IN MY LAST 20 FREEBIE PICKS AND WRITE-UPS -- WHAT MORE ARE YOU WAITING FOR????!!!!
GET ON BOARD!!! STILL TWO STRONG PLAYS IN TONIGHT'S ACTION -- GOING FOR $15 ONLY!!!!
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GOOD LUCK AND LET'S KEEP CRACKING THOSE BOOKS!!!!
ANOTHER 2-0 DAY OF FREEBIES SO FAR WITH YOU ON THE CHC RL -1.5 AND THE OVER in the game!!! YOU CAN'T BEAT THESE PICKS!!! 13-3 IN THE LAST 16 FREEBIES!!
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KC / MN --
Kansas City comes into the game continuing to impress so far in this young 2009 campaign as they are 12-10 overall and just managed to take 3 out of 4 at home against TOR - handing them their first series loss of the season. This KC just continues to hit and their pitching has been - as we all well know thanks to the recent media coverage of Greinke - nearly spectacular making KC an easy fit to be the media darlings of the MLB season. Although I have to admit, it would be nice to see KC return to their baseball legacy roots a la the '80's -- but could this bunch really be the 2009 version of the Rays??
KC enters with a winning record through the month of April for the first time since the 2003 season as they are 12-10 overall. On the road so far in 2009, KC is 5-4 with two of those wins coming from Greinke starts. They have had a total runs count of over 9 runs in only 3 of their 9 road games -- and they all came in a 4 game span in TEX and then CLE. Although, 1 of those games was a Ponson start. The game total in KC games has hit at least 9 in their last 3 games overall. KC comes into the game with a shocking .235 BA against RH (14 HR 57 RBI) and a paltry .317 OBP. Although on the road they are hitting at a slightly more acceptable .267 clip (9 HR 36 RBI .338 OBP .417 SLG).
First they have to get through another tough series in MIN and they send a former Twin, albeit quite a brief one, to the mound in Sidney Ponson. Ponson has been just short of brutal in his 4 starts for KC this season as he is 0-3 with a staggering 5.79 ERA overall (23.1 IP 26H 15ER 10BB 17K -- 1.54 WHIP .286 BAA). KC has yet to get a W in any of his 4 starts - although somewhat surprisingly only 1 of his starts has actually gone OVER 9 total runs (one other did push on the number). On the road in '09, Ponson is 0-1 and with an even more horrible 16.20 ERA (3.1 IP 8H 6ER 4BB 2K -- 3.60 WHIP .471 BAA!!!).
Against MIN in his career, Ponson has been dominant going 11-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 113 IP. In his career at the Metrodome - Ponson is 5-7 with a 4.41 ERA (although those stats do include his time with MN). In 2008, Ponson faced MN 4 times and he was 2-1 with a 2.93 ERA overall. At the Metrodome in 2008, he was 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA (16.2 IP 13H 5ER 3BB 7K -- .96 WHIP!!! .224 BA). Some of the Twins regulars have hit Ponson fairly well: Span (3-7/2B, 3B, K SB); Harris (4-8/2B, BB, K); Morneau (4-20/3RBI, 2BB, 2K); Kubel (4-13/2RBI, K); Crede (4-10/2 2B, RBI); Cuddyer (1-13/HR, RBI, 2K); Young (5-15/2B, HR, RBI, BB, 2K); Mauer (5-15/2 2B, 2BB); Casilla (3-6/2 RBI).
On the other side of the ball - MIN sends yet another one of their young phenoms to the hill in Kevin Slowey. Slowey is a talented RH who has had a pretty decent start to the season and his young career so far. In 2009, Slowey is still perfect at 3-0 and has a decent 4.44 ERA overall (26.1 IP 36H 13ER 2BB!!! 19K -- 1.44 WHIP .324 BAA). The run total has gone over 9 in 3 of Slowey's first four starts to the season and all 3 times while starting at the Metrodome (MIN was 2-1 in those 3 games). At home in '09, Slowey is 2-0 with a 5.89 ERA (18.1 IP 28H 12 ER 2BB 12K -- 1.64 WHIP .354 BAA). However if we delve a little further we see that MIN is 10-2 overall in Slowey's last 12 GS at home (dating back to last year). Overall in his young career, Slowey is 11-4 at home with a decent 3.75 ERA.
Overall KC hits Slowey about as expected: Dejesus (3-11/2B, HR, 4RBI); Teahan (4-10/2B, HR, RBI, 2BB, K); Guillen (2-10/K); Butler (1-5/K); Callaspo (2-6/K); Aviles (3-9/K); Olivo (1-5/K); Buck (1-5/2K).
Despite the recent success of Sidney Ponson at the Metrodome and his overall dominance of MIN overall - MIN will be getting back a very key cog for the lineup in Joe Mauer for this affair. Not too mention as a team, they hit Ponson well and have scored a few runs against him. This game is SCREAMING for us all to take the OVER 9!! Take it and go straight to the bank!! This game will be OVER early. I also have to make a smaller lean on MN. I have confidence that MN playing at home has enough to beat a young KC team coming off a huge home series victory. Mauer is back and all will be right in MIN and the AL Central again.
MY PICKS AGAIN:
MN (-172)
OVER 9 KC/MN
GOOD LUCK AND LET'S KEEP POUNDING THE BOOKS!!!!
The Angels enter the 2nd game of the series having blown an early lead in last night's contest before finally bowing out in a 7-4 loss. They were playing better in their last few games as they came into NY having swept a short 2 game set with BAL. The loss snapped a 3 game winning streak for the Angels overall. LAA is wretched on the road this season as they have started 3-6 (1-6 if you take away the BAL 2 game sweep). On FRI night games, LAA is 1-2, including 0-1 on the road. In game #2 of a series, LAA is 1-6 on the young season - including 1-2 on the road in game #2. In FRI games, the LAA have had the total game runs scored go over 10.5 two times (out of 3). On the road, the LAA have a road BA of .249 with 7HR and 36RBI. Against LH in '09, LAA has a .251 avg. and 6HR 17RBI (although Vlade bats .364 and has 1HR 2RBI and he is still out).
The Yankees on the other hand are blistering hot after having a 10-run 7th inning the other night @ DET and are 3-0 in the 3 games. They ended up winning that game 11-0 and then followed it up with an 8-6 W and the 7-4 opening victory against LAA. In their new ballpark the Yanks are 5-3 overall, but have won 4 in a row and 5 out of 6 since starting 0-2 there. In the 8 games at Yankee stadium, the run total has failed to go over 10.5R only 2 times. On FRI night games, NYY are 2-1 overall including 1-0 at home. In game #2 off a series, the Yanks are 5-2 overall - including 2-0 at home in that situation. At home the Yanks are hitting .289 with 15HR and 38RBI. Against RH the Yanks are hitting .261 with 24HR and 83RBI.
On the mound the LAA send their young phenom in Weaver who has always managed to W against the Yanks in his young career. Overall in 2009, Weaver is a very good 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA (25.2 IP 24H 8R 7ER 6BB 21K - 1.17 WHIP .247 BAA). On the road in '09, Weaver is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. He went 5IP and got knocked around in an 11-3 loss in his only road start of the season in SEA. Other than that, the LAA are a perfect 3-0 in his other starts, although all those were at home. All 3 of his other starts on the season were "quality starts" and the only start he had that has had the run total go over 10.5R was in that SEA loss. Against NYY in 2008, Weaver was brutal stats wise going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA (11IP 15H 11ER 3BB 8K -- 1.64 WHIP .319 BAA). The Yanks roughed him up in his lone start at Yankee Stadium as he only lasted 5IP giving up 8H and 6R in and 8-2 loss at Yankee stadium.
Some of the NYY regulars are decent against Weaver in their careers: Cano (3-7/3B); Damon (2-11/BB, 4K); Jeter (1-9/3BB, 2K, SB); Matsui (1-3/2B); Posada (1-5/2B, RBI, K); Swisher (3-19/HR, RBI, BB, 3K); Cabrera (0-7/RBI, K); Teixeira (3-13/2HR, 5RBI, 3BB, 3K); Molina (2-5/HR, RBI).
On the flip side the Yanks have the luxury of sending one of their all-time greats Pettitte to the mound for the second game of their 4 game set. AP is having a pretty solid start to '09 as he is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA (27.1IP 24H 10R 9ER 6BB 16K -- 1.10 WHIP .240 BAA). NYY is 3-1 in his 4 starts -- including 1-0 at home so far. However, there has not been a game that Pettitte has pitched in that has gone over 10.5R. In AP's lone home start he pitched solidly, getting the W and pitching 7 innings of 2R, 9H ball in a 5-3 victory over OAK. In 2008, Pettitte faced the LAA 3 times and lost to them all 3!! His only start against them in NY (at the old Yanks stadium) he was on the losing end of a 12-6 loss. His stats in that game -- 5.1IP 11H 9ER 3BB 4K 2HR. His overall stats against LAA in 2008 weren't any better as he was 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA overall against them (17IP 30H 16R 15ER 6BB 12K -- 2.12 WHIP .390 BAA!!!!). In his career against LAA though, Pettitte is a little better than 2008 would suggest. He is 12-8 with a 4.48 ERA against them in his career.
Some of the LAA regulars hit Pettitte pretty well throughout their careers: Figgins (5-11/3RBI, K, SB); Izturis (2-4/BB, K); Abreu (2-13/RBI, 2BB, 4K); Hunter (6-28/2B, HR, 9RBI, 1BB, 11K, SB); Morales (0-3); Matthews, Jr. (7-21/3 2B, 4RBI, 2BB, K); Kendrick (3-9/K, SB); Napoli (3-5/2B, BB, K); Quinlan (5-12/2B, 2RBI).
I really see this game becoming an offensive explosion - if not for only one team. And the obvious lean after viewing the starting pitchers in this game would suggest the LAA (+142) for a nice dogg victory. I also am suggesting that despite the fact that both of these pitchers usually pitch in low scoring affairs - this one will be different and I believe the will go OVER 10.5
My official picks:
LAA (+142)
OVER 10.5
GOOD LUCK AND LET'S KEEP CASHING!!!!
WE DID IT AGAIN!! WE ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED THE BOOKS ONE MORE TIME!!! MY PRIMETIME PLAYERS HAD ANOTHER UNBELIEVABLE 8-2 DAY, WHILE THE ROOKIE CAPPERS HAD A 4-1 DAY!! EVEN THOUGH THE FLA/CHC UNDER 9.5 GETTING BLOWN UP IN THE 10TH INNING KILLED ONE PICK -- WE CRUSHED ON ALL THE OTHERS!!! THIS IS TO EASY!!!
TO GET MY BEST PICKS OF THE DAY'S BOARD - CONTACT:
BIGDADDYBIGGZ@GMAIL.COM
TODAY IS GOING TO BE ANOTHER HUGE DAY!!! EVEN THE FREEBIES ARE HITTING AT AN AMAZING CLIP. AFTER LOSING ON THE OAK/TEX OVER 11 -- IT KNOCKS MY FREEBIE RECORD TO 11-2 OVER MY LAST 13!!!!! YOU SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH MONEY BY NOW TO SEE THAT WE ARE LEGIT HERE AND NOW IS THE TIME TO JUMP ON BOARD AND START WINNING BIGG!!!!!
For the Morning Write-up:
FLA/CHC --
This one should be an interesting contest as these two teams battled it out for 9 innings last night to a 2-2 duel, before going to the 10th where FLA broke the game open and made us love them for that -- until they came up with the 6th run and pushed the total over what seemed like an easy under 9.5 Today both these teams should be coming back for more as they had a great start to the series - everything you would expect from two division contending teams.
FLA comes in looking like they have gotten back on track - winning 3 straight. This comes on the heels of a previous 7 game losing streak - which was preceedede by a 11-1 jumpstart to the 2009 season. Can you say consistently inconsistent?? So which FLA team should we expect? Based on their offensive explosion in the 10th - you would think they might still be pumped from the win when they arrive for the afternoon game. On the road for the 2009 season - FLA has started out well - coming into the game with a 9-4 record away from Miami. Another interesting trend is FLA is 3-1 in game #2 of a road series and 4-3 in game #2 of a series overall. Also, in those 3 road wins in game #2 of a series - they have scored at least 11R total in the game. Overall on the road FLA has had 9 games with a total at 10 or higher and 7 games with 9 total runs or lower. FLA does however come into the game with a paltry team road BA of .232 overall to go with 12 HR and 61 RBI. In Day games in 2009, FLA has a .253 team average with 10 HR and 50 RBi in 9 total games.
On the hill for FLA is G.Taylor, a young rookie making his 2nd major league appearance. He has not had the best starts to his young rookie campaign as of yet either - coming into the game with an 0-1 record and a horrendous 9.82 ERA in just 3.2 IP (4H 4ER 6BB!!! 2K -- 2.73 WHIP). His only start came in a 13-2 blowout loss to PHI at home. We'll see how he holds up in his 2nd career start - especially in the unfriendly confines of Wrigley Field.
On the other side of the field, CHC has been a little bit of disappointment this season -- especially at their home field where they now carry a 4-5 record. They have currently lost 3 in a row at home and will be looking to avoid their 4th straight in the early morning contest. In CHC four W at home they have scored at least 9R in 3 of the 4 games - with 2 going over 12. Coming into the game CHC has a paltry .236 BA at home (7 HR and 34 RBI) and they hold a team BA of .254 (8 HR and 34 RBI) in day games as well.
On the for CHC is Harden and as we all know, when Harden is healthy, he is damn near the ace of a staff. So far in 2009, Harden has been decent going 2-1 overall with a 3.86 ERA. Even more impressive are his stats: 21 IP 15H 10R 9ER 10BB 35K!!!! -- 1.19 WHIP and a .195 BAA. Some impressive numbers indeed. In games that Harden has started at home (in '09) the Cubbies are 1-1 winning one game 7-2 and dropping the other 2-5. Going back to since his trade to CHC, the Cubbies are 7-2 WL in games that Harden has started in Wrigley Field. In his career at Wrigley, Harden is 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA (9GS 49 IP 31H 16R 14ER 23BB 77K -- 1.10 WHIP .175 BAA).
Some FLA regulars have had some moderate success against Harden in their careers: Ramirez (2-4/2B, BB); Cantu (1-9/BB, 3K); Helms (1-2/K); Hermida (1-5/HR, RBI, 2K); Ross (0-2); Uggla (2-5/2B, HR, RBI, 2K); Amezaga (0-6/BB, 2K); Baker (0-2).
CHC is going to explode with the bats today and you can bank on that. I see a lot of value in playing the OVER when it is released because this is going to be a game dominated by CHC. Although the Cubbies don't usually push the total to an OVER when Harden is on the mound - I think the unfriendly confines of Wrigley will be too much for the young rookie to handle and I expect him to be out of the game by the 4th-5th inning with about 5 runs hung on his head.
I love CHC in this spot but the (-266) price tag is UG-LEEEEEEE!!!! I would say take the CHC RL (???) in this game and cash in the end! DON'T BE FOOLED -- FLA is going to drop this game.