1) Read, read, read...Phil Steele, Athlon, etc. Read about every team - who they retained, who they lost, coaching changes, scheme changes, strength of recruiting class, etc.
2) Subscribe to CPFN...great magazine for stats throughout the season.
3) Get your bankroll ready...and plan for good money management. Even units most of the time. Step out for a big play when the situation calls for it. (Yes, Big East big plays went 26-9 last year).
4) Always go with your first instinct. I still (occasionally) make the mistake of overthinking a play. When I flip on a game I usually regret it. The first instinct is right more than it is wrong.
5) It does not hurt to take a look at some of the respected handicappers on Covers to see who they are on. Don't tail blindly but if your play matches a respected, documented, winning 'capper that may be a solid play.
More thoughts will follow. Feel free to comment. I cannot wait for week 1!
Big plays are now 15-3 on the year. 5 unit play on OKL -6.5 easily crushes the number last night. GOY quality pick. Also jumped on Cincy -6 as a 3 unit play and that came through with a win and cover. 8 units won on those 2 plays alone. Key Big East total release crushed the number as WVU and the Ville put up 56 to go over the total of 46.5.
Recent record update:
> 8-3 last 11 plays
> November big plays are now 6-1
On to Sunday...
Giants -3
Looks like this may be a trap line and a trap game for the men in blue, but I see this defense giving Warner all he can handle today. Look for major pass rush by the Giants' front line causing errant throws. Cards D not impressive at all to me. Giants by 7 here as rushing game pounds away and Eli manages an efficient game.
More later.
Back from the Caribbean...a nice 2 week stay...limited posts lately but was able to send in Bama and Texas Tech last week as 2 big play winners.
Big play record YTD is 11-2.
Today...
NY Giants - Balt Under 40
Expect both offenses to stall here against great defenses...add in some cold and windy weather...money is split 50-50 on the total yet it has dropped 2 points.
More plays coming...
Ended the day in college with a 3-0 sweep of the 8:00 pm games as ILL, BC and (big play) LSU all took home the cash.
Big plays in football this year are 6-0 ATS.
On to Sunday...
Giants -10
I can justify the big number here as Giants are in a great spot to "bounce back" after Monday night debacle in Cleveland and SF travels to east coast after giving up 40 to Philly on their home field. Giants offense should have its way today against a soft SF D that gave up a total of 101 points over the last 3 games! Is that the kind of D that can stand up to Big Blue's receiving corp and stable of big and fast backs? I say no. G-Men here by 17.
More plays later.
NFL regular season: 10-4 ATS
NCAAF this week: 6-2 ATS
Big plays YTD 3-0 ATS
Let's get things started this Sunday. I have made some subtle but important changes to my handicapping methodology this season and so far those changes are paying off.
Totals have been red hot in both the NFL and college. I need to go back and figure out the ATS % for totals. Maybe later this week I will do that.
One total is jumping out at me so far.
Jets-Cardinals UNDER 44.5
I am still going through my analysis. More plays later.