Posted Tuesday, January 06, 2009 12:10 PM47-31-4 YTD Posted
- Well, went 3-4 last week. Went against my instinct on San Diego and tried to get cute with plays on Miami and Minnesota. Thats the price I paid for laying money on Tarvaris and ignoring an enormous matchup mis-match against the Eagles blitz. Lesson learned.
- On to this week, still alot of homework to do, but my first play I am going large on. I really, really like this play, although I would have preferred Arizona would've had to play the Giants in the cold.
Playing
Carolina -9.5 (Large)
Fun Stats to start it off:
- Arizona is 2-7 this year against either playoff teams or teams that were in contention and barely missed. (Losses to NE, Washington, Carolina, Philly, Minnesota, Giants, and the Jets, wins at home against Dallas and Miami very early). The combined average loss for these games was by 18 points.
- Arizona is 0-5 playing on the Eastern Time zone, losing by an average of 20 points.
- Arizona is also 0-5 against Physical style football teams, which Carolina certainly qualifies at.
- Defensively, Arizona is giving up 31 points per game on the road. Their rushing yardage allowed is not bottom tier but their road stats are skewed by playing a few poor rushing teams in the first place.
As for Carolina, the only teams that gave them any trouble whatsoever were physical style teams with either strong running games and/or strong defenses they played on the road (Minnesota, Giants, Atlanta, Tampa).
- Carolina went undefeated in their home games, winning by an average of 17 points per game, including a ppg average of almost 30, which combined with Arizona giving up 30 on the road is a glaring stat.
- Carolina rushed for an average of 173 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry at home. Being this is a playoff game, the ground attack will be more prevelant.
Other relevant points and Bottom Line:
- I tried to fade Carolina a few times at home this season and learned a hard lesson. This team takes pride in smashing defenses in the face on the ground, and their two-headed monster rushing attack led by Deangelo Williams is absolutely on fire right now. I think they are going to run all over the Cardinals in this game, and with a large spread like this running the ball is of paramount importance because it is the best guard against a back door cover.
- Defensively, Carolina has been had a few times but rarely at home, as they are only giving up 14 yards per game. Being that Boldin is banged up, Lucas and Gamble should have moderate success against the Cardinals air attack, and I expect to see alot of 3 and outs. I also see Peppers and Jon Beason absolutely wreaking havoc on Warner. A statute like quarterback against a resurgent Peppers is not good news for Cardinal backers. Warner is going to be put on his back and hurried for most of this game, and I expect alot of three and outs and poor field position for Arizona, which sets up right into the hands of a Panthers rushing attack that is rolling along like a tank right now.
- The bottom line is Arizona is a soft, pass first team. That works fine when they are playing at home against a rookie quarterback or the NFC West. It does not bode well on the road versus a physically tough team that takes pleasure in punishing opponents. I have a small worry about laying this much chalk with Delhomme but I don't think the game is going to be in his hands that much.
I am aware this Cardinals team almost beat Carolina earlier this year, but Zona was playing better at the time and Carolina wasn't really rolling along yet.
Arizona has proven to be a patsy against both physical teams and when they have to travel cross country, and being that playoff games are more physical this game is setting up to be a complete and utter rout.
Carolina 31 Arizona 13
BOL more to come later
Well I was going to wait until after Thanksgiving to post to see how I made out but I don't see myself having much time this weekend with travel and all.
On a bit of a lucky run with my 4 unit plays, 4-0 so far, so I'm either going big or going home this week as I'm going to play two. I might be making up for the slaughtering I took in college last week, and lets hope I don't get burned for being cocky here, but I see two standout plays this week:
Playing
Buffalo -6 (Hook) Over San Francisco (4 Units)
(Normally I don't buy the hook on 6 but I have a general rule when I'm putting larger money down its better safe than sorry, and 6 is a very possible score differential. Weather may be less than stellar in Buffalo and I'll be damned if I lose on a fluke missed extra point or some shit like that).
Stats:
San Franciso's Defense has allowed 30 points or more six times this season. They are also third to last in scoring defense surrendering over 28 ppg, including almost 31 on the road. Their high priced hodgepodge of expensive free agents are allowing almost 380 yards per game on the road, including almost 280 vs the pass (way to earn that 60 Mil Nate Clements). Their 3 wins have come against Seattle, St Louis, and Detroit, who sport a less than impressive 4-28 SU record collectively. Against teams at or above.500, they are being outscored by more than 11 points per game. In some fairness, alot of these stats are indicitive of the performance of Hall of Fame nominee JTO O Sullivan, but Shaun Hill is not exactly what I will call a massive improvement, so I am putting stock in them.
- I wont thrill you with Buffalo's majestic stats at home, cause they really don't exist, but they allow 100 less yards per game than San Fran and statistically play much better at home, even including their impressive rout of Kansas City last week.
Real Reasons and Other Factors:
- My main reasoning behind this play is a fade of both Shaun Hill and San Francisco's defense in a bad body clock game. Here we have another case of a West Coast team travelling east to get gashed by their East Coast bretheren in a 1 PM matchup. Buffalo is 1-1 ATS so far in this situation, with a win over a talent-wise superior Chargers squad, and a victory they skinned out late vs Oakland. The difference between this and the Oakland game is the weather will be under 40 degrees and the Hawk may be coming in, not exactly a great scenario for a California team. Note, I am also aware that Miami failed to cover against both Seattle and Oakland in body clock scenario's but 1) the line was larger in both cases, and 2) they were playing in balmy Florida, not the Minnesota-esque Buffalo.
- After incurring a 4 game losing streak and a heartbreaking loss to Cleveland on MNF, the Bill offense woke up and destroyed KC last week. Note - I am not over-reacting to this as I understand KC's defense couldn't stop San Diego State but it shows that Edwards may have pulled his head out of his ass and the offense appears to be playing with more confidence. Edwards' achilles heal is turnovers, something that San Fran's D struggles to create. The Bills should have success in the run game as well as I can count one player on the Niners defense who poses any threat whatsoever to containing Buffalo's attack, and that is Patrick Willis. Willis will be a challenge but I expect Lynch to have a big day, setting up play action for Edwards, and allowing Lee Evans to potentially get deep and torch either the overpaid Clements or the over-rated Walt Harris, if you can even call him that.
- I am aware that the Niners offense has had a bit of resurgance under Shaun Hill, but I see him struggling mightily in this scenario unless they can pound the ball. Since The Niners offense rushes for barely over 70 ypg on the road and Buffalo's Defense only allows 100, it does not seem likely that Gore will be able to take the load off of Hill's shoulders, which means he will be attempting to cut through the hawk and most likely throwing a pick or two.
- Aside from line of scrimmage, offensive, defensive, body clock, and weather scenarios in favor of Buffalo, they also hold an edge in coaching and more prevalent, special teams. Being that San Francisco will be punting often the Bills return attack should have great success setting up a short field for Edwards to work with. Jauron isnt exactly HOF material but Singletary is an assistant coach at best and Martz's schemes do not work well in cold, windy, and potentially snowy weather.
Almost every situational advantage favors Buffalo here, and I am confident they emerge victorious by at least a TD.
GL
Well, I almost literally flipped a coin here. The football Gods have blessed us with another difficult game to cap, but at least this should be an entertaining matchup. Neither team has a major advantage in this game as their strengths or perceived strengths fly into the faces of the other teams strengths as well. If I wasnt a degenerete I might even lay off this game but God knows that would be an impossbility so here we go:
Playing:
New Orleans -1
Thinking about Greenbay +7.5/Over 45 as both a middle opportunity, a hedge, and just for the hell of it as I see this game going over and staying within a touchdown differential either way.
Stats:
As I mentioned above this is a strength versus strength matchup. Brees is on pace to break Marino's single season record which is actually quite an accomplishment with the injuries they have had. NO has the number one passing offense in the league and they are averaging over 330 passing ypg at home and also over 420 total yards. Conversely, GB has been very strong against the pass this season only surrendering under 160 passing yards per game on the road.
GB has been gashed on the ground on the road but the Saints pose little threat of running the ball, so this will fall completly on Brees vs GB's amped up secondary. Defensively, the Saints have had all of the stoutness of a used giz rag but at home they have performed much better, giving up 7 less points per game and 50 less yards at home than away.
Statistically, very small edge to the Saints, and I mean very small.
So now that we have established strength vs strength statistically the only way to make a decision is to examine matchups and other situational factors.
Factors in NO's favor
- The Packers have had alot of success against the pass this year because they disguise their coverages well, mixing in bump and run with zone, and their corners do a good job jamming on the line. They are a major mismatch to a quarterback that fails to read defenses effectively but Brees is proving that he has little trouble moving the ball versus any defense. The Saints have little ground game and have major issues with short yardage situations but the Packers run defense is one of the worst in the league and Deuce may have a chip on his shoulder since he has one more chance to roid up before his suspension hits. Short Yardage will be critical in this game.
- Although their secondary has been stout, losing Nick Harper is a blow to the defense in the middle and Al Harris can be had in the open field. Harris does a good job of jamming receivers and is a physical corner but lacks the speed to run with quicker receivers. I'm guessing they will matchup Woodson on Colston which may neutralize him somewhat, but if Henderson or Moore can get by Harris on the line they could have downfield success.
- On the other side the Packers offense is built primarily around the stretch play and slant routes across the middle, with the occasional bomb to Jennings sprinkled in. NO's defense fails miserably against smashmouth type teams but luckily for them the Packers running game is built more on misdirection than slamming the defense into submission. The Saints linebackers are not exactly run stuffing beheamoths but Fujita, Shanle, and Vilma all have above average speed with could allow them to get to the outside quickly to jam up the stretch play, which Green Bay relies on heavily to set up play action for Rodgers. Of course, with their run game built on the stretch and counters they could expose over-pursuit by the Saints linebackers, small worry about that. New Orleans secondary will most likely be somewhat exposed as Mike Mckenzie and Jason David have little chance of reigning in Driver and Jennings, so stopping the run for the Saints will be critical.
- Really, there are only two factors here I see that are overwhelmingly in the Saints favor: 1. they are more desperate and 2. they have a big home field advantage as is and havent played in the Dome in over a month in a half.
- Im not saying Green Bay has nothing to play for here as Chicago and Minnesota both won yesterday, but even with a loss they are only one game back in a division where there is zero chance of a wild card spot. Not a let down spot for Green Bay but if the Saints lose this game they can pretty much pack it in for the season, as a loss would put them 3 games back of Carolina with only 5 left to go. The home field crowd will be lathered up and i am counting on this to force a Rodges mistake or two. Rodgers played very poorly in a similar environment in Minnesota and the only reason the Packers kept it close was their defense and special teams. They are facing a different beast on offense tonight so Rodgers will have to match Brees in a shootout and I am giving Brees the slight nod.
- Finally, most of the bets are rolling in on the Pack because of their rout of Chicago last week and the fact Bush isnt playing. Im not putting stock in that rout as Orton was clearly rusty and the Pack jumped on them early, and the Bears are ill prepared to play from behind, which led to the wide scoring differential. As far as Bush goes he is elite in special teams but i believe would not be a huge factor on offense. The Saints will be better off going straight at the Packers in the run game rather than trying to get outside, so this may actually help New Orleans.
Either way, tough game to cap. I see alot of points scored and will be close either way.
GL
Well let me state that I am joining the public on this one and laying almost two touchdown chalk on the road, so normally this play would scare the shit out of me and would probably be a no-play, but in this case I see so many mismatches I can't resist.
Play:
Texas -13.5 over Kansas (2 Units)
- The line seems to be about right as Kansas opened as 17 underdogs at Oklahoma, and the Sooners and Horns are pretty much evenly matched across the board. I will state I was on Kansas in that game and got extremely lucky on the backdoor as it looks like Reesing himself had two units on the Jayhawks and engineered a touchdown to Briscoe with less than 30 seconds left. A funny thing I noticed is Stoops looked pissed about it despite the fact he was getting a two touchdown victory against a ranked conference opponent. Goes to show that coaches and boosters probably lay action too.
ANYway,
I see this as a good spot for Texas, and while Kansas has plenty of motivation still being in contention for the Big 12 North, the talent disparity here is big enough for me to lay the road chalk.
Key Stat:
- First of all, Kansas is losing by an average score of 47-30 against any opponent that actually resembles a Division 1 College Football Team (Texas Tech, Nebraska, South Florida, and Oklahoma.) This doesnt take into account the 33 points they gave up to Iowa State where they needed a furious comeback to win straight up versus probably the worst team in the Big 12 and one of the worst in the country. Their wins consist of a laundry list of doormats that is far less than impressive.
- Texas on the other hand is winning games by an average of 24 points including a 25 point rout of MIssouri which wasnt even that close. And on a neutral field I have condifendence that Missouri would house Kansas by a minimum of 10 points.
Common Oponent at the same site:
- Some will say it doesnt pay to base opinions on common opponents, but one of the games I saw this year gives me more than enough confidence to make this play. Anyone who witnessed how Texas Tech completly tore this Kansas team apart in Lawerence by a score of 63-21 (with a meaningless KU touchdown at the end) witnessed a porous defense that got shredded at will by well oiled spread offense. Texas isn't as exotic or quite as advanced as Leech's schemes but the talent level is equal if not greater and both teams take advantage of creating space and allowing their elite quarterbacks to pick apart hapless defenses. Tech scored absolutely at will in that game and I almost felt embarrased for Kansas although I have no allegieance to them and had two units on Tech.
Motivational Factor:
Both teams have motivation and there is no let down or potential tank scenario here. KU is still in contention for the Big 12 North, and Texas is 3rd in the BCS and is very much still alive, especially if Oklahoma takes down Tech next week which is very possible and some will say likely. Add in that Alabama is no shoe-in to win the SEC championship and old Mack has everything to play for and absolutely every reason to run this one up. He is going to need style points as other famous run it up intentional spread coverers Urban and Carroll are going to be pulling out all the stops this weekend as well. Which leads to my next point:
Backdoor threat:
- KU does have a solid offense and Reesing is fully capable of engineering a backdoor, but in this case I don't think it will matter. I think Texas will be up by at least 3 Touchdowns late due to the fact they should be able to score at will versus the less than stellar KU Defense and have a good enough defense to stop Reesing at least 4-5 times. Add in the fact that Mack will not step on the breaks and I could see Texas themselves getting a backdoor if KU somehow manages to cut the deficit to 7.
There is no look-ahead factor as the Longhorns have A & M on deck and they don't even play them for another 11 days with a bye next Saturday.
Bottom line, KU is a solid program at this point but they are not in Texas' league and if they can't handle Nebraska they are certainly not going to stop Colt and Company. If this was an early season matchup I would probably stay away but the BCS and conference championship scenario combined with no real lookahead threat for the Horns makes this a juicy spot for them IMO.
Best of luck this weekend guys.
I've been reading this site for three years now, never thought about posting until this year. Mostly because I was the definition of a square bettor living on ten point teasers, parlays, and the like. I've learned alot from these forums and from losing those ridiculously stupid bets, and while I do not consider myself an expert I have learned enough to have had some success this year.
In any event, I should preface by saying I am a Cowboys fan but I have a strong play for this weekend, and that is fading the living hell out of Dallas. Being a Cowboys fan living in Minnesota, I am also intimately aware of the skills (or complete lack thereof), of Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger, both former Vikings and the latter who played high school ball 50 miles from my town.
Here is my attempt at a writeup as to why I think NY will win by double digits at a minimum.
1. NY Pass rush vs Bad Brad or Brooks. This is probably obvious to most but is one of the biggest matchup mismatches on the board this week. Johnson as we all know is a complete statue that doesn't have the arm to punish teams for blitzing. If Brooks plays, the guy has the moxy and toughness of a field mouse. Add in the fact that Dallas' "vaunted" offensive line is much stronger at run blocking than pass blocking, and we have a recipe for disaster.
2. Cowboys are completly decimated by injuries. The most vital part of the offense, Witten, is banged up and may not play. The secondary is completly decimated and is considering playing Anthony Henry at free safety (almost as slow as Roy the Safety Williams). TO is going into full sulk mode, Patrick Crayton dropped not one, not two, but three crucial balls vs New York last year after talking smack all week, Roy the WR Williams has no clue how the offense works yet, and their best playmaker, Felix Jones, is out. Add in the fact that Bradie James is lumbering now, and Dallas' defense has a very slim chance of containing Eli, Jacobs and company. I know that alot of people are patting Wade on the back for dialing up blitzes against Garcia last week, but Tampa did not have the punishing threat of Jacobs.
3. NY smells blood in the water. This would be an opportunity for the Giants to go up 2 1/2 games on Dallas, effectively 3 1/2 with the head to head win. The crowd will be in a lather as while the Giants fans toy with hating the Eagles and Redskins, their fury pales in comparison for Dallas. Flozell Adams will have at least 2 false start penalties with the noise and the fear of NY's feroucious pass rush. Marc Columbo is no match for either Justin Tuck or Kiwianuka (spelling?).
4. Bottom line: NY will dominate the line of scrimmage and pound Jacobs, setting up play action for Plax (even a banged up Plax over-matches Mike Jenkins and Anthony Henry). Whoever starts at QB for Dallas will encur at least 4 sacks, and will be constantly hurried into mistakes. I predict at least three Dallas turnovers. Dallas' only chance is if Barber has a monster game, which I do not see happening against New York's D on the road.
In my heart I hope I am wrong, but I will be taking NY -8.5 for at least 4 units.
Of course being a first time poster I may be good for fade material, but I see this as my strongest play on the board this week.
GL to all.