CFB Week 4 Plays: YTD: 11-9 (+6.1 units)

Finally had a great winning week going 5-3 for +8.1 units. HUGE wins on all our 4* plays with wins on Penn St , Okie St. , and LSU. The Vegas lines are getting sharper so we may have to be more selective with our plays. Here’s what I like for week 4.

Thursday

3* Pitt Panthers +5

I can't believe betus gave me this beauty of a number when its 3.5 everywhere else. I will keep fading Miami on the road against decent teams until they prove they can win on the road. Miami definitely has the better athletes in this matchup, but the team with better athletes doesn't always come out the victor and I think that is the case on Thursday night. I just can't figure out Miami QB Jacory Harris, as it seems he is great one game and awful the next. I expect the Pitt O-line to play a bit better and open up some holes for the very impressive RB Dion Lewis. If Lewis can keep the chains moving and Miami's speedy offense off the field, Pitt will have a chance to win outright! Take the generous points as my numbers show Pitt -2.5.

Saturday

4* Fresno St Bulldogs +3

I believe the wrong team is favored here as I made this line Fresno -5.5. Ole Miss has some severe O-line issues and I think that weakness will be exploited here by an above average D-line of Fresno. Though I'm not crazy about taking a WAC team against an SEC team on the road, I still believe Pat Hill will have his guys fired up to knock off another BCS school. Something is just not right in Oxford right now and I think this one could get ugly. Take the points with the overall team.

4* Maryland Terrapins -11

At first glance I said why the hell is Maryland favored by DD over anyone? However, the more I looked into the game the more value I saw with the Terps. The only negative about this pick is that FIU has proved that they can cover against bigger schools since they have covered over Texas A&M and Rutgers . However, I expect FIU to be a little out of gas with this being their 3rd straight game against teams from BCS conferences. I know they have to be disappointed after narrowly missing out on upsetting Texas A&M last week. FIU is probably beat up mentally and physically, and with the “Fridge” coaching for his job I look for the Terps to make a statement here behind RB Da’Rel Scott. I made Maryland a -17.5 point favorite so value is on our side. Maryland also has Duke on deck so there is no look-ahead factor to worry about. I expect the Maryland D to put a good effort, similar to how they shut down Navy in the opening week. Lay the points and let’s hope for a 20 pt victory for the Terps!

3* Stanford Cardinal -5

Mad as hell that I missed out on getting -3 with the Cardinal in this one. Nevertheless, I still see a ton of value with Stanford and will gladly lay less thatn a TD here (even though that makes another road fav…geeez!). QB Andrew Luck is the real deal and may be the #1 pick in the NFL draft in a couple of years. This kid has a cannon and should be able to exploit the Irish secondary. I love Brian Kelly as a coach, but Jim Harbaugh is just as good as Kelly and he will have his guys fired up for this one! The only thing that bothers me is that ND is more battle tested, having already played michigan and michigan st. However, I still made the Cardinal a -11.5 point favorite so we’ll ride with Stanford. Lay the points, even though its on the road.

3* Oregon Ducks -11.5

It looks as if Chip Kelly is finally coming into his own as a head coach. He has this Oregon running game putting up playstation-like stats and even though this Ducks team hasn’t been truly tested, I still expect them to take care of business rather easily against AZ St this weekend. AZ St played Wisky tough last week, and nearly pulled the upset in Camp Randall . I don’t see that happening in this one, as I expect the Sun Devils defense to be worn out after going up against the HUGE O-line of the Badgers and their bruising 270lb RB John Clay. I don’t think they can get up two weeks in a row and contain 2 good offenses. Also, I just don’t think the Devils have enough team speed to contain LaMichael James and co. My numbers have Oregon-18 so we’ll ride the quack attack. Lay em on the road again boys!

Here's my leans for week 4 (which i may play later on)

Bowling Green +25 (can Michigan's swiss cheese secondary play well enough?)

Air Force (loved it at -11 but not too high on it now that its at -14.5)

Texas -15.5 (would love to see a -14 and concerned about lookahead with OU on deck)

LSU (only if it comes back to -7)

Best of luck this week boys!

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Mad as hell at myself for leaving 3 winners on the board in week 2 (of course the 3 leans I liked all won easily). Really surprised that Houston Nutt and Ole Miss didn't play a bit better and run it up on Tulane. All in all, we broke exactly even last week which definitely is NOT the goal. On to week 3 where I have played 3 plays early!

4* Penn State Nittany Lions -21

I jumped on this at 21 because I think it will end up at at least 24 or so. I have Penn St -27 so we'll gladly take that value. I think the oddsmakers made this line a bit low since the whole world just saw Bama dominate Penn St from start to finish a couple days ago. Well good news for the Nittany Lions, Kent St is no Bama. I expect JOEPA and the boys to come out fired up and ready to get back on track. Penn St has beaten non BCS opponents 19 straight times by an average of 34 points. The game will slow down considerably for young QB Bolden, who looks promising. Lay the big wood and look for a big blowout!

3* Central Michigan Chippewas -9.5

I know this is a so-called rivalry game but Eastern Michigan is flat out TERRIBLE. My numbers have this game at CM -21 so clearly I see value with the Chips. I know Lefevour is gone and CM is installing a new offense with a new coach, but I still think they will have the better athletes on both sides of the ball. And yes, I hate laying points on the road, but can't help myself on this one. Go Chips!

3* Oklahoma St Cowboys -7

Did anyone see how AWFUL Tulsa's defense was against the new spread attack of East Carolina? My goodness they just can't stop anybody and guess what: OK St now runs the spread. I made this line Ok St -13.5 and even though the Cowboys are in a rebuilding mode this year, I still see them handling a CUSA team with ZERO defense. I expect RB Kendall Hunter to run wild and have a HUGE day like he did against Wash St in the opener a couple weeks ago. Lay the touchdown with confidence boys!

Mad as hell at myself for leaving 3 winners on the board in week 2 (of course the 3 leans I liked all won easily). Really surprised that Houston Nutt and Ole Miss didn't play a bit better and run it up on Tulane. All in all, we broke exactly even last week which definitely is NOT the goal. On to week 3 where I have played 3 plays early!

4* Penn State Nittany Lions -21

I jumped on this at 21 because I think it will end up at at least 24 or so. I have Penn St -27 so we'll gladly take that value. I think the oddsmakers made this line a bit low since the whole world just saw Bama dominate Penn St from start to finish a couple days ago. Well good news for the Nittany Lions, Kent St is no Bama. I expect JOEPA and the boys to come out fired up and ready to get back on track. Penn St has beaten non BCS opponents 19 straight times by an average of 34 points. The game will slow down considerably for young QB Bolden, who looks promising. Lay the big wood and look for a big blowout!

3* Central Michigan Chippewas -9.5

I know this is a so-called rivalry game but Eastern Michigan is flat out TERRIBLE. My numbers have this game at CM -21 so clearly I see value with the Chips. I know Lefevour is gone and CM is installing a new offense with a new coach, but I still think they will have the better athletes on both sides of the ball. And yes, I hate laying points on the road, but can't help myself on this one. Go Chips!

3* Oklahoma St Cowboys -7

Did anyone see how AWFUL Tulsa's defense was against the new spread attack of East Carolina? My goodness they just can't stop anybody and guess what: OK St now runs the spread. I made this line Ok St -13.5 and even though the Cowboys are in a rebuilding mode this year, I still see them handling a CUSA team with ZERO defense. I expect RB Kendall Hunter to run wild and have a HUGE day like he did against Wash St in the opener a couple weeks ago. Lay the touchdown with confidence boys!

 

And here's my list of leans (not plays): would love thoughts on these:

Illinois -7 (would love to get -6.5)

AZ St +14 (someone talk me outta this one)

LSU (only if i can get -7 or better)

Northwestern (only at -6.5 or better)

East Carolina +19.5 (looks too easy, VT could get a blowout)

I will also be on Kansas on Friday but will wait to see if the line keeps going up!

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THANK GOD the season is almost here. I love baseball but it just isnt nearly as fun as college football. I like two plays for opening night and would love thoughts on these. I make my own power ratings system to cap these games. Plays range from 3 to 5*

3* Iowa St -3

I think the oddsmakers are giving a little too much respect to Jerry Kill and the Northern Illinois Huskies. IA St was much improved last year under QB Arnaud and I think he has a decent senior season. The only thing I don't like is that IA St has rival Iowa on deck, which means they may be looking ahead. Nevertheless, I made IA St a -9 point favorite so I see some value. Lay the small number

4* Middle TN -4

This may be a bit of a homer pick but my ratings do show value with the Blue Raiders. I've also seen them practice a few times this summer and they are looking sharp in my opinion. Should be the biggest crowd in school history with a BIG 10 team coming to the boro. I love Dwight Dasher and expect him to give the Gophers defense fits all night. My numbers have Middle by 10.

Any and all thoughts are welcome and appreciated. Good luck this season to everyone

So far I've played two Sat games as well...

4* UCONN HUSKIES +4

I see this as a FG game either way so the +4 pts at BetUS was too juicy for me to pass up. I see its mainly +2.5 or +3 everywhere else so I love that value. I do think Rich Rod will finally have a breakout yr for Michigan and I think QB Forcier has a ton of potential. However, UCONN and Randy Edsall are still on the up and up and I think Michigan is getting too much love just because they are Michigan. I actually made the Huskies a -5 pt favorite as I think they will be jacked for this game. And who does Michigan play next week, you got it rival Notre Dame, so there is a slight possibility they will be looking ahead just a tad. UCONN also returns 16 total starters (8 on offense and 8 on defense). They also have 4 out of 5 starting OL back, as well as the entire DL back. I know its in the BIG HOUSE, but Edsall has proven his kids arent afraid of big venues as they covered LY at PIT, at Cincy, at WV, and won outright at Notre Dame. take the points!

3* Clemson Tigers -23.5

Purely a value play for me as I hate laying this many points. I think this line might go as high as -27 or so, so I'll get down on it now! One nice Phil Steele stat is that Clemson is 4-0 against Sun belt teams, beating them by an avg of 29 points. Strong armed QB Kyle Parker is back, passing on the MLB draft to return to the football squad. Clemson loses stud RB Spiller, but Ellington has shown some promise and I expect him to have a good yr behind an experienced OL that returns 4 out of 5 starters. Clemson also returns 3 out of 4 on the DL. I'm looking for BLOWOUT city in this one. Clemson by 30+

I should have a couple more plays up, but I'm waiting to see some line movement.

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