I know thats a pretty ballsy statemtne but ive gone back several years to come to this conclusion. Let me quatify this a tad though. If you listen to cappers who specialize in situational or trend handicapping...you will loose this weekend.
I know many of you think im drunk and have a bit of brain damage, but every year around this time until about week 16 or 17...situations and trends do not matter nearly as much as pure fundamentals. take a look at thursday...there were VERY strong situations for arizona, detroit, and seatle and all of them go crushed.
as your capping this weekend, go with your gut and bet the better teams agains bad opponents...crappy teams playing crappy teams is a bit harder but there are some no brainers on the card this week.
BEST BET OF THE YEAR ill take buffalo at home over sf
STRONG STRONG OPINIONS...down the line ill take the jets, inidapolis, baltimore, miami, Giants
And becasue i have to pick the rest of the card ....atlanta, minesota, tampa bay, green bay, oakland, pittsburgh, jville
and if i dont go at LEAST 60% on the week ill eat my own shorts
Sorry i havent posted in a few days but i had to go into that closet where i have been keeping my capping notes from the past 10 years to find out what is going on. for the past 2 weeks i have been just 1 or 2 games over 500 which is not stellar...and then i rembmered, didnt this happen to me last year, and the year before that right around this time?
I opened the closet door, pulled out my sons glove and various balls, the old golf clubs and some crazzy thing callled a shamwel..im pretty sure that wasnt mine!
anyway ive been running about about 60% on the year until the last 2 weeks, so of course the first thing i did was go back and check my math, arizona, the big dogs, san diego christ my math was right, they should have won! at the very least ALL of them should not have failed! what in the hell is going on i thought
Then i found what i was looking for...every year about this time with about 5 weeks to go in the season, what had been working all year doesnt work anymore, MATH FAILS! ...SITUATIONS FAIL!....there are a few that hold up even through this but most of the good capping youve done and analysis simply defies all laws of reason....i challange you that have capped for a bit that do situation and fundamentals to go back and check your data....
And here is what i found without drawing out this post anymore...once the playoff picture starts to come into focus about 5 or 6 weeks out until about 1 week before the end....your gut is right and teams play the way they should.....BAD TEAMS ARE BAD! and dont cover, especially those that have covered all year, they just quit or cant keep it up anylonger, AND GOOD TEAMS ROLL! ....so as your capping this weekend look at what SHOULD happen and roll with that..
Im gonna start it out with tonights prediction based on this thought
Ill take GREEN BAY ! see you in the funny papers
Well tonight i was sort of in like with the cinci bet because it falls into my classing 8point + big dog class bet that is hitting 72% ATS on the year....but then i heard that they deactivated OCHO CINCO and now i LOVE LOVE LOVE this bet becasue it now comes into a secondary class bet of mine with the star player going down which is a 65% histroical ATS...there are a number of other situations that i like cinciatti for and was looking at them anyway but with Cinci falling into the dual strong class bets. Im calling this as one of my yearly RUBBER BAND BETS!
Take Cinci and the points and ill see you in the funny papers!
weather looks good and ill take a slight lean on the over.
Atlanta applies to a number of negative situations here over the past few years and the head to head matchup is not much of a telling point Carolina has a slight edge at 5-4-1. but more importantly the thoguht that Atlanta is going to have a huge bounce back game may not be supported by the numbers
since 200 Atlanta applies to a negative 16-24 ATS after a Home SU loss on their following game. Overall they are 23-39 Su following an SU loss and 26-27-2 ATS following a SU loss. to further drill down into the negative situaions for Atlanta they are 4-12-1 STS for home games when facing a wining road team.
The Panters on the other side are flowing into a few very positive situations . 5-0 ATS following an ats loss and a very nice 41-19-1 ATS following previous games with 150 passing yards.
Im taking carolina unless someone has a compelling argument against....thoughts?
I have 2 that i like
when i first capped the buttler - ball state game i really like buttler quite a bit but i did some digging and found that not only does buttler have a horrible ATS record covering big spreads but ball state also has a great record of covering large ATS spreads.
Give me ball state and the 15.5
the other bet i like quite a bit is the UNDER in the kent state- st louis game...nothing like rooting for no scoring...there it is
BALL STATE +15.5
Kent state- st louis - UNDER