I like to bet 1-2 dogs a week pretty big so I look for teams early in the year with betting value. Here is my list of teams I think are undervalued heading into the season.
Keep in mind, I'm not saying that these teams will be playing for the National Championship. This is just my list of teams that may be better than perceived, thus possibly resulting as moneymakers for us gamblers this year. Feel free to offer me your feedback or add teams of your own.
Ole Miss - Old Houston Nutt is back where he likes to be: In the underdog role. Last year Ole Miss was hyped all preseason and fell flat on its face early on. Then when no one was talking about them, the Rebels went on a run during the second half of the season.
For some reason, Nutt's teams are much more dangerous when little is expected out of them like this year. While Ole Miss isn't predicted to do much this year in the SEC, they still have some talent that could make them dangerous. The strength of the Rebels is on the offensive and defensive lines, which I think is key for underdogs to stay in games.
I like Brandon Bolden and behind that line look for the Rebels to run the ball a lot this year while they break in a new QB. Still, how much worse can Nathan Stanley or Raymond Cotton play than Jevan Snead did last year?
The Rebels are replacing a lot of key players but coaches like Nutt seem to thrive in this position and get the most out of their team. I think Ole Miss will be a tough out in the SEC this year.
Wake Forest - Jim Grobe is one of CFB's best coaches in my opinion. His teams are always well prepared and rarely beat themselves, making them an appealing underdog.
I think the Deacons will run the ball much better than they did last season with a more experienced offensive line and Josh Adams and Brandon Pendergrass both returning. That will take pressure off of new QB Skylar Jones, who by all reports looked very good this spring.
Wake has recruited well under Grobe and while they may finish around the .500 mark, I think they will once again be a strong underdog betting wise.
Cincinnati - Cincy isn't going to go undefeated this year but from what I've been reading people are jumping off the Bearcats' bandwagon much too quickly. Sure, losing Brian Kelly and Tony Pike hurt but Butch Jones is no slouch and Zach Collaros showed last year that he can lead the offense. The loss of Mardy Gilyard will hurt but the Bearcats are deep at receiver.
Cincy is still loaded on offense. USC transfer Vidal Hazelton joins Armon Binns and D.J. Woods to form a strong receiving corps. I love RB Isaiah Pead and think he is in store for a huge season.
The Bearcats are switching back to a 4-3 defense and it may take some time for the team to adjust but overall I think Cincy has more talent than people are giving them credit for and they are still a dangerous team in the Big East.
Indiana - I think Indiana will have one of the most explosive offenses in the Big 10. They played a lot of close games in 2009 and would have gone to a bowl game if the defense performed better.
QB Ben Chappell is primed for a huge season and the Hoosiers have a strong group of receivers led by Tandon Doss. If the offensive line improves, Indiana will be much better on the ground. Darius Willis is one of my favorite players and he has the skills to be a stud, while highly touted freshman Antonio Banks adds another big-play threat out of the backfield.
The Hoosiers won't be great on defense but if they can defend the pass a little better, a bowl bid could be in their future. Either way, I see the Hoosiers being a solid underdog play this year.
Baylor - Last year Baylor was the sexy pick as a sleeper team but once Robert Griffin went down in the third game, the Bears were finished.
Griffin returns this year and as long as he stays healthy the Bears' offense should be deadly. Jay Finley is an underrated back and the receivers are a deep group. Also, the Bears have a strong offensive line, which will help them shred defenses on the ground.
Baylor is actually my top undervalued team heading into the season. Art Briles is a good coach and he's upgraded the overall talent level at Baylor. I think the Bears are going to be a great underdog play this year and a surprise team in the Big 12.
San Diego State - Brady Hoke went 4-8 in his first season and the Aztecs should continue to get better in his second year at the helm. Ryan Lindley gave SDSU stability at quarterback, passing for over 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns last year. Now entering his senior season and second year in this system, Lindley should shine.
The Aztecs have a deep group of receivers so their passing game will be a strong point. However, Hoke still needs to find a RB so he can move more towards the balanced offense he prefers.
SDSU was bad on defense last year but that is Hoke's area of expertise, so I expect the Aztecs to improve on that side of the ball. Overall, if things fall their way, the Aztecs could end up having a winning season in 2010.
Utah State - Here is a team I really like heading into the year, especially for gambling purposes. The Aggies went 4-8 in Gary Anderson's first season and they have 18 starters returning.
RB Robert Turbin tore his ACL, so that is obviously a painful blow but I like the direction the offense is headed under QB Diondre Borel. Last year with Borel leading the offense, the Aggies set a school record for total yards gained. Look for this unit to continue to get better.
Nine starters return for the Aggies on the defensive side of the ball. That's the good news. The bad news is those nine starters contributed to a defense that allowed 34 points per game.
However, like Hoke with San Diego State, Anderson is a defensive minded coach, so logic would suggest the Aggies improving on that side of the ball in his second year.
Utah State will be catching some big lines this year and I think they will be a solid moneymaker when getting points because they should be pretty competitive in almost every game.
Army - Rich Ellerson is an excellent coach, as he showed last year coming within one game of getting Army to a bowl game in his first season.
Trent Steelman returns at QB to lead Army's triple option attack. The offense should make a big jump this season now that the players have had two years to absorb Ellerson's system.
Army was strong on defense last year, finishing 16th in the nation overall. Eight starters return on that side of the ball, so expect Army's attacking defense to be the strength of the team.
Not only do I think Army is going to be great ATS, I expect them to make a bowl game this season.
Let me know what you guys think. I always enjoy constructive feedback.
First off, the judge who gave the fight to Griffin should be banned for life. Luckily it didn't cost Dunham the fight but anyone who thought Griffin won two of those rounds must be crooked. There is no way around it.
But how impressive has Dunham been in the UFC? His ground game is sick. He reminds me a little of Nick Diaz when he gets guys on the ground. I wish I had him as a big underdog tonight. Kudos to those of you who did. That was a nice payday. Last time we will get Dunham at those odds.
Hey guys. If you are not a fan of "The Office" the title of my post is a phrase from the character Andy Bernard. He graduated from Cornell and every time he mentions the school he says, "Cornell, ever heard of it?"
I also graduated from Cornell and seen them in person 10 times this year. Does that make me an expert? No it does not. But I do know what kind of teams they can play with and Temple is that kind of team. The Owls are very good but they play low-scoring games and that is perfect for the Big Red.
Do you realize Cornell has played only one really poor game all year long? That was a no show against lowly Penn. Those things just happen some times. They gave Kansas everything they wanted on the road and even though Syracuse beat them by 15 it was a 6-point game at the half.
This game is going to be really, really tight. One of those physical, low scoring affairs. I can see it being 56-55 with 10 seconds left. Four points in this game is huge in my humble opinion.
I admit that this is a homer play but I wouldn't put money on the game if I thought Cornell had no shot. I think they match up well with Temple and I'm going to take the points in this one. This is the only wager I will be making in the first round as I'm too busy breaking down hockey games right now. I will leave the rest to you guys and sit back and enjoy the other games.
My Play:
Cornell Big Red +4 $500
I will also put a little on the Cornell ML when it comes out. Comments and feedback are more than welcomed. Thanks and best of luck to all of you during March Madness.
Playoff Record: 3-1 +7.5*
Wildcard Round Recap
Jets (3*)
Packers TT Over (5*)
Packers (5*)
Packers/Cards 2nd Half Over (5*)
I had a good start to the postseason going 3-1 last weekend and clearing 7.5 units. I have one play I really like for Saturday:
Ravens +7 (5*)
I really think this is going to be a close game. The Ravens pass defense has gotten much better as the season has gone on and one has to believe Ed Reed has something to do with that. Baltimore has to be brimming with confidence after ending Brady and Belichick's perfect playoff run at home. I know Flacco didn't do much in that game but I think a lot of that had to do with his hip in the cold weather. He didn't look right from the start in that cold weather. This week I think Ray Rice will open up some play action down the field. Derrick Mason had a big game the first time these two teams met and the Ravens defense caused some timely turnovers. I think the Colts may pull this one out but I see another close game between these two. There is just something I like about this Baltimore team and I see them covering a touchdown Saturday night in a well-played, hard-fought game.
Anyone who would like to discuss this game more in depth, please feel free to comment.