Is it because they blew their way through the first 2 rounds of the playoffs? ORL has had the luck of the draw in this postseason more than any other team. CHA and ATL, although possessed of very potent offenses, were ORL's regular season bitches. If not for a last-second putback dunk by Josh Smith that resulted in a 86-84 ATL win last Mar. 24, ORL would've swept the season series between them 4-0. Similarly, CHA took advantage of ORL's b2b situation last Mar. 14 to put up their only season win vs the Magic. The playoffs between these 2 and the Magic have not been really competitive, with the only game the Magic failed to cover a ORL -10 game vs CHA last April 18 (Playoffs Game 1), with the 98-89 final score failing to illustrate that ORL had led by as much as 22 pts in the 2nd half. CHA and ATL are teams that have problems with opponents that feature great centers biggest they don't have legit big men. The Celtics are not that kind of team.
Magic vs Celtics
The Magic must've been hoping that it was CLEV who came out of the Eastern semifinal, because there is nothing on that scrub team, despite the addition of Jamison and Shaq, that would've guaranteed a Cleveland series victory. Basically the same CLEV team as last year = an Orlando trip to the NBA Finals. On the other hand, the Celtics are now all healthy, and are enjoying an offensive renaissance from Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. Yes, the same Ray-Ray and Rondo that last year were both the subject of trade proposals. Even Paul Pierce was shaking his head at how they might be broken up. And yet that Celtics team, rife with trade talk, with KG out and so shorthanded they had to play Stephon Marbury and that inutile cocksucker Scalabrine, was able to take it to the almighty Magic. After Game 5, the Celts were up 3-2, after which everything pretty much went downhill because ORL refused to just roll over and die. Is ORL that much better this year? One might say that Jameer playing would spell the difference. To an extent, yes, but look at his defensive assignment. It's not as if he's going have a walk in the park with the faster, younger and more talented Rondo.
Look past the 3-1 season advantage ORL has over BOS and consider that in their 3rd meeting, a 96-94 ORL victory, the Celtics led by as much as 16pts, a feat that required a 35-22 ORL surge late in the game to achieve a Magic win. So it could very well have been 2-2 between them.
The only hope that ORL could have to win this series is by shooting less 3's and taking more high percentage shots. Fat chance. In the CHA series, ORL took +/- 30 three-pointers per game. In the ATL series, ORL seemed to tone down in the 1st 2 games, attempting 23 three-pointers each, then slunk back to their old ways, shooting 29 and 37 attempts in Games 3 & 4. The point with ORL's 3-pt attempts is that in their regular season matchup, whenever ORL shoots a good percentage from beyond the arc, they win over the Celts. When they don't, the outcome is a predictable ORL loss. It will hardly be that easy vs this playoff's 2nd stingiest defense (BOS). ORL will have to rely very much on Dwight down low to free up space for their long-range bombers, but even there, Team Disney will not have it easy. No one on the Celtics team is incapable or afraid of Dwight. Not Perkins, not Rasheed, and certainly not KG. The other Magic men would now have to create their own shot much more than they did during the first two rounds of the playoffs, something they might have to relearn after their cakewalk vs ATL and CHA.
Last year, ORL walked into TD Banknorth Garden and stole Game 1. I bet my marbles the Celtics haven't forgotten and are looking to return the favor this year. Although I don't have the balls to bet BOS ML just yet, my Game 1 bet is...
Boston +6.5
Contrarian opinions most welcome, folks!!
Back from a 2-day hiatus to break the losing spell. Let's see if the no-tension vacation of watching NBA games for two days has helped:
SAS ML
Don't quite understand why SAS would be a dog here, even with Tony Parker out. Spurs have covered 9 out of their last 10 games, so this streak is no fluke. Am usually wary of betting on teams that just came off blowout losses, but San Antonio beat GSW to a pulp with Tim Duncan clocking in only 14 mins, and 8 Spurs players were in double digits. Combine that with a day's rest in between and you have an "over the hill" contender ready to teach these young Hawks a thing or two about veteran advantage, IMO.
SAS +3.5
See above reasoning.
Leaning:
OKC -4
(who doesn't love these hardworking young guys?)
POR +6.5
Another young team that plays hard night in and night out. I believe the reason PHX doesn't match up well with the Blazers is that, absent Amar'e, Portland's length and youth give the Suns problems from the center spot all the way to the matchup between Nash and Roy. Should be a good fight, just like their 2 previous games.
Let's get this
After 3 heated meetings, NBA owners seem to have backed down from what NBA union VP Adonal Foyle (of the Orlando Magic) called "ludicrous". The issues of contention between players and owners boil down to the ff:
1) Salary cap: small-market team owners and David Stern want a hard salary cap like that in the NHL, which would forbid the paying of salaries above a specific amount that each team is eligible to pay, regardless of any circumstances. This is to level the playing field for small and middle-income bracket teams to sign top-level talent that would otherwise all be monopolized by billionaire owners like Paul Allen and Mark Cuban. The aim here is to avoid having the same 4 or 5 teams contending for the title year after year because they can afford to retain their veteran stars. The current soft cap is nothing more than a loophole for the super-rich owners to get around this.
Players' position: players want to retain status quo, and retain exceptions like the Larry Bird Exception, mid-level exception, rookie exception, etc--all of which allow a team to circumvent the luxury tax if a certain player/s fall under any of the above criteria (eg., free agents who are veteran stars, first-round draft picks, free agents with extendable contracts. Hell, that about covers everyone in uniform except for the temps signed to 10-day contracts)
2) Basketball-Related Income (BRI): Owners want to slash the players' share of Basketball-Related Income from the current 57% (which has been rising year by year ever since 2005) to just under 50%. If you think NBA players get their share of BRI solely from TV and gate receipts, look again: it includes such things as arena parking fees, broadcast rights, arena signage, NBA merchandise sold anywhere in the world, beverages and snack sales, and mascot and cheerleaders' appearances outside NBA games. (Yup, the mascots and the skimpily-clad cheerleaders dance, the players get a cut of their income as well.)
Players' position: subject to negotiation, but they immediately opposed the sub-50% revenue sharing in the league's position paper.
3) Guaranteed contracts: Owners want to limit their exposure to such purse-draining max-level guaranteed contracts (like those paid out to Allan Houston and Jason Williams--the Nets center, not White Chocolate--who continued to be paid in full even after getting jailed for shooting his driver) when a player's career ends for whatever reason. Owners want only 50% of a guaranteed contract to be fully guaranteed. That means if you get career-ending injury, get jailed or die, you or your family get half of what was promised you.
Players' position: they want the 100% guarantee in place, bar none.
4) Long-term contracts and maximum salaries: Owners want long-term contracts to be shortened from the current 7 yrs to around 3 or 4 yrs. Contracts like the $100 mil that louchbag Juwan Howard received last decade will become all but non-existent. Also, owners want to slash their star player's salary by about a third, with the savings to be distributed towards the many exceptions stated above. Simply put: No more Vince Carter-type contracts. If a veteran wants max contract money, he has to shape up or he's out in 3 yrs. For those in the mid-range pay scale, they would be eligible for max money in 3 yrs under the Larry Bird exception if they play well.
Players' position: Players want to retain the present 7 yrs, with all the current perks retained. Star players like Kobe also disagree with the proposed cut in their max salaries so that their teammates' paychecks can be a bit larger, creating a more equitable middle class payroll.
The current collective bargaining agreement that the players' association has with the NBA expires on July 1, 2011. Without an agreement by the end of the 2010-11 season, there could be a lockout like what we saw in 1999. LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Carmelo, KG and other union officers stomped their way to the last 90-minute meeting. NBPA union president Derek Fisher had this to say about the league's proposal: “I think what we made clear today is that where they are is not relevant to where we are. We’re not going to begin where they say begin,” Fisher said. “I think that was the purpose of going in today, to make sure they understood that their proposal was not the beginning of the conversation.”
In short, without the dollar numbers in their favor, the players won't even talk. Well what in effin' tarnation is a bargaining session for if you aren't allowing one side to start at a base figure that they feel is fair?
My opinion: Retention of 8-figure/year contracts even when a player cannot play anymore? Paying people like Jermaine O'Neal ($23M/yr) veteran exception-scale salaries? $23.2 mil a year for T-Mac even though he isn't playing despite being able to do so? An $86-M payroll (NBA's 3rd highest) for the Knicks, not counting luxury tax costs? A majority share for players in Basketball-Related Income even without them putting in a single cent in investment, while owners take all the risk from an economic downturn? What would this all lead to? More T-Macs, more prima donna bitches like Vince Carter and Allen Iverson. FYI: the average salary cap (specifically differs from team to team) has increased from $43.9 million in the 2004-05 season to $60.9 million this season. And the players want more. More, more, more. Goddamn it, waive the entire league's rosters if that's what it comes down to!! We the fans demand better than this. If we're outraged by Wall St. salaries, this one should be no less of an insult to the hardworking Joe who puts in 8 hrs/day and cuts down his lunch hour just to be able to earn enough to buy these arrogant pricks' jerseys and shoes. This early in the negotiations, the players' union has already brought in a lawyer who raised the dirty word that used to be linked with Michael Jordan: decertification. Let's see: that's like an employee saying to his employer, "Boss, you're fired." Well and good! Let there be no NBA season in 2010-11 if that's what it takes to pound some sense into these lazy, greedy, overpaid leeches' heads. Let's see how these bastards run a league of their own making.
**Opinions please, come one come all
For those interested in more specific details of the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement and other rules, click: Larry Coon's Salary Cap FAQ
0-3 last night. (sigh. I left my mojo in 2009) On to the next...
CHA +11
Bobcats 5-2 ATS as road dogs in December, 10-5 ATS overall as road dogs. CHA is the silent giant-slayer of the league; I'll pick 'em any day over the Lakers or the Magic. CLEV 5-10 ATS as home faves, 3-7 ATS overall as double-digit faves. B2b situation favors CHA (4-2 ATS) over CLEV (5-6 ATS).
INDI +8
First, the numbers: INDI 5-10 ATS as a road dog, 6-10 on the road overall. NYK 3-4 ATS as a home fave, 8-9 ATS overall at home, has never been tagged as a fave of more than 6 pts all season, and is 3-5 ATS overall as a fave. Ok now forget all of that shit.
The little voice in my ear is saying that after NYK beat all expectations to hand the Atlanta Hawks their 3rd straight loss, it's going to go home and shoot itself in the foot again. Also, if you believe the 1_Hit_Take_All theory, you have to play against the home fave who just came off a road win as a dog. Personally, I think Nate just ejaculated all of the juice he was cooping up in those weeks bench-warming, and now it's all dried up.
Leaning:
TOR +1
Rarely bet TOR, but I like'em now. SAS is an excellent 5-2 ATS as a road fave, with the 2 ATS losses coming in early November. TOR is 2-3 ATS as a home dog. IMHO, spot here is SAS on a 5-game win streak about to be broken, and although SA is slightly better on b2b games (2-3 ATS) vs TOR (1-6 ATS), I suspect that of both teams coming off overnight flights from the Eastern seaboard, TOR, coming off a loss to BOS, will play better.
++am on a bad 3-day slump, so I'd gladly hear about all your takes/picks.
LAL and NYK are a lock, but am really jittery about playing all 3 home
faves tonight. Something inside tells me one of them is going to be a
letdown. Which one is it? Team Disney's lazy ass Vince Carter? The
Knicks suffering another epic 4th quarter meltdown as they did vs the
Bobcats and the Bulls?
From Doc Rivers: “We have our ideas and we’re going to move it around, you’ll see. I’m not worried."
BUT:
Doc also said he might sit KG for long stretches if KG feels pain again
during the game. Which leaves....Big Baby Davis to man the paint vs
Dwight?