First off, it is not news that the Dogs ruled today and this was not a favorable day for us gamblers. There is a demographic that is going to hang onto that notion and reinforce it later tonight with the DD Home Dog (old wives tale) to gain confidence against backing the Browns. I have kept a close eye on Baltimore this year, and have a few thoughts about this matchup:
First observations:
1. Baltimore did what they should against Minny, and it turned into a shootout with a heartbreaker lost. Nice cover though.
2.Not many surprises the next week that they don't lose 4th in a row, the stymie the Denver offense, and the bandwagon rolls saying "Baltimore defense is fixed and we're back"
3. Realization that Cincy is for real and they were worked over in every facet of the game leading to a horrendous day from Flacco, with a dismal defense.
NOW:
1. Cleveland has had some games this year that have been so atrocious, it is beyond words. I was not of fan of Brady Quinn before he was benched, and clearly I should not coach the NFL because my choice of Andersen proved to be the wrong one as well. Brady is now back, and the Browns have a had an extra week to plan....not sure who that strengthens on their team, but i bet that they slept well.
2. Baltimore comes in knowing they can shut down an anemic offense who did not take chances down the field with Denver. And then turns around and does not play to their potential in Cincy. I know Gaither was a great addition for their Denver win, and Ngata really hurt them in cincy.
3. As you breakdown this game, I see a few things. Joe Flacco is an excellent quarterback. He is poised, can make the big plays, and he has been held in check here for at least last week and was decent vs Cincy. In the position that the Ravens are in right now, I cannot see him coming out flat and if I think about the Green Bay game, I see Flacco scoring 100 in the first quarter.
4. I also see the Ravens defense, tightenting up a la Denver against this Browns team that is horrendous at scoring. For them to have a breakthrough game, I do not see it against the Raven defense that knows that this is a game that they should win easlily.
Line -11 total 38.5
I have been leaning under for 3 weeks now and was fortunate was a tease on the Atlanta game, and a straight up on last week's contest. I think Vegas is booking all Balt -5 teases with the over. Although I want to take the under, these Cleveland games can get so out of hand and you are never really sure what shit show you are going to watch.
Can anyone tell me if this Browns defense can remain competitive against Flacco and Co? When a team is 4-4 and knowing they are having trouble finding a way to win, I lean towards the dog. because of the recent past, it is tought to LOAD UP on Baltimore when they have undeperformed this year.
Bottom line you have signs of greatness on both sides of the ball for Baltimore with zilch for Cleveland. I get the DD Home Dog/Trap line call, but as much as I want to buy into it, I just can't see how Cleveland can hang in with Quinn, some bunk receivers, and a Baltimore defense that can shut you down when they get in rhythm.
Still soul searching for this game but would be interested to hear about Cleveland's defense and how they can keep this close.
BOL
I understand the argument for both sides of this game. Ravens lost two close games, they won't lose 3 in a row, and Minny hasn't been tested. On the flip side, a 5-0 team is laying a field goal or less, Ravens aren't the same defense as last year, AP will have a banner day, and the 2ndary has been exposed and will be exploited.
I am leaning towards the Ravens but feel like there is a disparity between the consensus noted on Sportsbook.com with 86% favoring the Vikes, with 87% consensus on the Vikes with Covers. The line came out with Minny – 3 even and has since dipped in a few shops to below a field goal, with most shops maintaining a -120 to -125 if you want to back Baltimore. If there is such a large amount of wagering on the Vikings, why is the line not bouncing to 3.5 and back down again?
I have been on the wrong side of a tight spread like this too many times with the most recent sting on the Titans on Sunday. I just feel like there is not a direct correlation with the consensus/spread movement, but am hoping Baltimore figures out a way to slow Farve down, and make some big plays on defense. The Tyree addition will not amount to much since he needs to learn the system, but regardless this is a huge Gut Check for both teams.
Been leaning KC +2.5 - 3 and am intrigued about the matchup. KC playing all close games well recently without any ability to finish. Cincy on 3 game win streak back at home. Does Cincy really win 4 in a row? Everyone's job on the line and I think the Chiefs feel like this a great chance to end the season on a win. Not that Cincy wouldn't, but should be proud enough of streak heading into game.
KC road ATC record decent, CINCY home ATS favored record horrendous. So what if KC has a horrific defense if Cincy has no offense to exploit it. All of these games this week are capped tight but I feel like this is a good opportunity for the road weary Chiefs to notch a rare home win against what is considered a streaking Bengal team.
nothing to lose from reading articels, it seems that Herm is really getting his team fired up for a win.
This is a BIG play for me so am interested in any support/counter...