Just a quick post, have to leave in 10 min
0-2 yesterday
7-10 overall -3.55 units
Friday plays:
Blazers - Cavs: Cavs -5 1st half -105
1.05 units to win 1.00
Cavs will come out very strong and hungry for the win. First game at home after a 2 game losing streak.
bol
1-1 yesterday
7-8 overall, -1.45 units
Thursday plays:
No time for longer writeups, sorry
Nuggets - Pistons: Nuggets -7 -103
1.03 units to win 1.00
Just 4 interesting trends:
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5.
Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pistons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Pistons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Celtics - Wizards: Celtics -7 -107
1.07 units to win 1.00
On a normal night, this should be a double digit blowout, I just see some problems, if Washington decides to show up today. Usually they don't, most of their player are a one-man-show (or at least pretend to), they don't deserve to be called a team.
bol @all
1-3 yesterday, just some tough luck with San Antonio not hitting 2 big shots, that rimmed out and Philly playing 3 quarters pretty well against Denver. But thats gambling, you have to deal with losses as they are part of the business. Just keep it going and don't lose your confidence. Have the right mindset and deal with variance and you will be fine.
Record: 4-7
-3.45 units
Tuesday plays
Not that much time for writeups, I just came home from watching Juventus - Bayern Munich and it's just past midnight here.
Bucks - Celtics: Bucks +12 -104
1.04 units to win 1.00
Waited for this line the whole week and expected it somewhere between 8 and 10. 12 is great value for me. This is the perfect game for Boston not to cover. They played just perfect on their roadtrip and proved themselves and a lot of other guys that they still have it. They don't have to do it tonight, they most likley win, but they won't blow out the Bucks by double digits.
Nets - Bulls: Nets +6 -106
1.06 units to win 1.00
Like the Nets in this spot here. Chicago plays just awfull at the moment, losing as favorites, not covering spreads and so on. The Nets looked not so bad in New York, played 3 solid quarters but got toasted by an individual performance by Hughes. They might have a shot in winning today.
bol
Went 2-2 yesterday, the Cavs-Bucks game was so weird, Bucks start with 10-0, lead 17-10 and then go scoreless for almost 12 minutes.
Record: 3-4
-1.38 units
Monday plays:
Blazers - Knicks: over 101 1st half -105
1.05 units to win 1.00
With Oden out, that frees a lot of space for the Blazers, on both ends of the floor. He slowed them down offensively and was a shotblocker on the defensive end. Knicks will get some offensive rebounds and easy putbacks. The Knicks start games pretty fast and slow down down the stretch. They give up the most points in the 1st quarter, followed by the 2nd as they need some time to adjust defensively. So will the Blazers, I think they need some time to figure out how to defend without Oden.
Nuggets - Sixers: Sixers +6.5 -102
1.02 units to win 1.00
Iverson is back, the game is sold out, Sixers try to avoid a 10th straight loss, they get back on their homecourt. With all these facts, I think the Sixers are going to try very hard to win this game. So I see a lot of value in getting 6.5 points in this spot.
Warriors - Thunder: Thunder -7.5 -101
1.01 units to win 1.00
Warriors don't play good on the road, and they covered a lot of games because they were getting double digit points (14 in Cleveland, 16 in Boston, 12.5 in dallas, 15 in Denver). Of course, the Thunder are not the Cavs or the Celtics, but they play solid basketball. The haven't lost back to back games since the beginning of the season and with a high scoring expected, the point spread variance is a lot higher, so they could easily win by double digits, if they win.
Spurs - Jazz: Spurs ML +112
1.12 units to win 1.00
Spurs lost 2 in a row and have to get back in the winning column. It's revenge time in Utah where the Spurs try to not fall back 0-3 in the series. They actually match up pretty good against Utah. Parker and Manu didn't play the last meeting and Kirilenko is questionable so look for the Spurs bench to step it up today. The difference between Spurs +2 and Spurs ML is 17 cent, I don't think there is a chance they lose by 1 or 2 point, if they do
gl everybody
Went 1-2 yesterday, tough losses with the Spurs leading 3 quarters and Dallas having a bad 9-2 start.
Record ytd: 1-2
-1.20 units
Sunday plays:
Nets - Knicks: under 204.5 +101
1.00 unit to win 1.01
I think this line is just a little too high. Knicks play worse opponents differently than better ones. They try to win with a little defense instead of trading baskets with the other team.
Cavs - Bucks: Bucks +6.5 -109
1.09 units to win 1.00
Basically a reverse line movement pick, 85% of the money is on the Cavs ats and the line dropped from -7 to -6.5. Cavs played great the last 3 games at home, but might lack a bit of focus tonight against a Bucks team coming home from a roadtrip and they should be motivated to at least play hard and contest the cavs today.
bol