I've been reading posts here for a while but with the New Year I think i'll begin posting picks of my own to keep track of my progress...
Once the New Year rolls in i'll hopefully continue to provide detailed write-ups and contribute to the MMA forum. I'll start from the bottom of the card with what I actually played.
Phillip DeFries vs Todd Duffee
I may be 100% wrong on this but I just can't buy into Duffee as this large of a favorite. It's a much closer fight to me than the odds say. If Duffee doesn't knock him out in the first 4 minutes his chances to win are slim. I think the price here makes it worthwhile to give DeFries a look. Also I just don't think that Duffee will get to DeFries the way Miocic did. He'll be able to weather the storm and get a submission in the 2nd round or grind out a decision win.
Phillip DeFries +275
Michael Johnson vs Myles Jury
Michael Johnson continues to showcase his development in the sport and his much improved stand-up and wins this one via unanimous decision.
Michael Johnson -235
Brad Pickett vs Eddie Wineland
This fight is tagged as everyone's pick for FOTN, but it may fall short as far as receiving that award. I think it's everyone's pick because this is a very close matchup. This fight could easily go either way and probably would be best to stay away because it could be a controversial decision. I'm going to roll the dice tho and Pickett to edge out Wineland. Outpointing him to receive the split decision.
Brad Pickett -110
Alan Belcher vs Yushin Okami
This pick is mainly based on what I think Belcher is and the fact that Okami won't have much to stop him. If you throw out the BS decision vs Sexyama Belcher hasn't lost since 2008. Belcher is a man on a mission and he can sense how close he is to a title shot and he has a stage tonight to prove himself and Okami is just standing on the tracks in the way of a freight train. Hopefully Belcher can keep it standing but if he does end up on his back I think he can pull off the submission. Belcher to finish mid-3rd.
Alan Belcher +100
Tim Boetsch vs Constantinos Philippou
Tim just finds a way to win when he fights and i've been tailing him for the past year and a half and he's been good to me so i'm not going to jump ship now. I think Boetsch does a good job of roughing up guys like Phillipou. I think Boetsch can neutralize Philippou's superior boxing and rough him up on the cage and do what others couldn't and put him on his back. The difference I think will be the strength of Boetsch in the clinch.
Tim Boetsch -105
Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos
I really do like JDS but I believe that Cain's knee injury was a real hindrance in there last fight and Cain won't try to the leg kick and counter approach this time. Cain will put his forehead in Junior's chest and drive him up against the cage and possibly get the TKO stoppage in 2nd or 3rd round.
Cain Velasquez +170
To me this is one of the more lopsided fights on the card considering Mendes just came off a title shot in Jan, and Cody just won his first fight in May (which I was at) since the TUF Finale.
My question is why such the big step down in competition for Mendes? Is this about Cody's following he's an obvious fan favorite, or am I missing something here about Mendes.
So I want to know what price are you guys getting on this fight? My book still has it closed but if it's fairly priced I'm likely to be all over it. I just don't see Cody the one trick pony having a shot against such a strong gameplan fighter. TAM won't let it happen.