The Jazz are playing terrific ball right now with their only losses in the past few weeks coming at the hands of New Orleans and Milwaukee, two of the hottest teams in the NBA. Utah is well rested having played at home the last two games plus they have an easy East Coast schedule on this trip. They don’t play any of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference. Utah won’t take the Raptors lightly if recent history is any indication. Utah pounded both Washington and Minnesota is flat scheduling spots, so they are not taking any opponent for granted. The Jazz have also owned this series winning nine straight against the Canadian club.
Toronto starts a key four game stretch on Wednesday facing Utah, Denver, Miami and Charlotte, four possible playoff teams. The later two being huge in the Raptors quest for playoff seeding. Toronto has won just 4 of their last 14 games but three of those victories were against Minnesota and New Jersey, the dregs of the league. In fact, the three wins before than came against Sacramento, Philadelphia and New Jersey again, so obviously this Toronto team hasn’t stepped up when playing high quality opposition.
Utah has Indiana, Washington, New York and Golden State on deck so they have no need to look past Toronto. Look for the Raptor’s fade to continue.
Pick: Utah - 3.5
The Lakers are 20-13 on the road this season, but a sizzling 30-5 at home. They tear up bad defensive teams and one of the worst in the NBA shows up here in road weary Minnesota. This is the end of a 4-game road trip for the Timberwolves and it’s been a disaster, losing the last two games giving up 152 and 120 points. They’ve allowed over 100 points in 10 straight games. Minnesota is 5-30 on the road and has already lost to LA by double digits the last time they met. With the Lakers still in the hunt for the top record in the NBA and the T-Wolves already giving up on the season, this will be another blowout.
Pick: Lakers - 15
Neither one of these teams is having a good season at all. Massachusetts knew they were in for a long, rebuilding year after graduating most of their team from a season ago. So their dismal record of 10-18 overall and 4-10 in conference play is of no surprise. However, the same cannot be said of a La Salle team that has an almost identical record of 11-17 overall and 3-11 in conference play.
La Salle had all the pieces in place to breakout in the Atlantic-10 this season. They returned four seniors this year and also added a highly touted freshman, and high expectations surrounded the Explorers. But all that went out the window early on when injuries to their core players wiped out their season. Ruben Guillandeaux lasted four games before a stress fracture in his right foot ultimately ended his season. Kimmani Barrett went down with a broken right foot after 15 games. And in the stretch run, Yves Mekongo Mbala had surgery to repair a fractured pinkie finger on his left hand. Those three key injuries basically left Rodney Green to carry the team on his back, and despite all of the big numbers he’s put-up, La Salle cannot win games with one scorer on the floor.
They’ve lost eight straight games, and nine of their last ten overall. La Salle has no home court edge whatsoever as they are just 5-7 SU and they’ve yet to cash a pointspread ticket (0-8 ATS) in Philadelphia this season. Their one home conference win came by just a single point over George Washington way back in mid-January. Simply put, La Salle has no business laying points, especially in this price range, no matter who the opponent may be.
Obviously, Massachusetts is no great shakes. But the Minutemen finally get a match-up against a team that plays at their preferred pace. UMass likes to get up and down the court, but their last three games all came against slower paced teams that grind opponents in the half-court. So just draw a line through those results, and go back to when UMass was able to play fast and their results are much better. La Salle was able to beat UMass earlier this season 80-74, but that was when they had their full complement of players. That’s not the case tonight so Massachusetts rates the edge in this spot.
Pick: UMASS + 5
Villanova will be one of the top four seeds in the Big East Tournament. That fact has already been determined. Unfortunately, the Wildcats - losers of three of their last four including that 18 points spanking at Syracuse on Saturday night - aren’t playing like one. That will change on Tuesday night.
Head coach Jay Wright’s Cats have been solid coming off a blowout loss of 10 points or more posting a perfect 6-0 SU record in their last six tries and have won by an average of 14.5 points per game. Equally impressive, Villanova stands 21-14 ATS priced as a road favorite versus a winning team and 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven on foreign soil coming off a straight up road loss. Obviously, those team trends are noteworthy but this next conference situation really makes this investment pop. Big East home underdogs battling a foe that sports a won/loss percentage of .800 or better are a dismal 2-20 SU and 5-15-2 ATS in their last 22 tries. That’s not the worst part. Late in the season at game 16 or later, this conference situation drops to a shocking 0-12 SU and 0-11-1 ATS. Please note: Those 12 losses have come by an average of 14.1 points per game!
Cincinnati has recorded a soft 6-9 SU and 3-11 ATS record in its last 15 games and the Bearcats just aren’t playing very well. To make matters worse, Cincy is a soft 13-24-3 ATS as a Big East host matched up against an opponent that arrives without momentum off a straight up loss including a woeful 0-8 ATS in this role provided the Bearcats carry a won/loss percentage of .600 or less.
The Wildcats got rocked for 95 points by the Orangemen and that poor defensive performance had Coach Wright furious. Rest assured, the Cats will play much better on both sides of the ball here.
Pick : Villanova - 3
Fresno St is 14-16 overall and 6-8 in League Play. Forward Paul George scores 16.8 points and 7.1 rebounds a game. Forward Sylvester Seay scores 14.8 points a game. Center Greg Smith scores 11.9 points a game. Guard Mychal Ladd scores 10.2 points a game. The Bulldogs score 67 points a game and they shoot just 67% from the fowl line. The Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games as road underdogs and they are 1-5 ATS their last 6 meetings with the Aggies. Utah St is 23-6 overall and they are 12-2 in Conference Play. Forward Tai Wesley scores 13.1 points a game. Guard Jared Quayle scores 12.6 points a game while shooting 44.5% from behind the arc. Forward Nate Bendall scores 10.6 points a game. Forward Pooh Williams scores 9.1 points a game. The Aggies score 73 points a game and they shoot 77% from the foul line. Utah St is 6-1 ATS their last 7 home games and they are 16-5-1 ATS off an ATS loss
Pick: Utah St - 14.5