YTD: 2u (4-3) 1u (37-21) Overall (+15.3u)
One play for my top play of 2 units
Memphis TT over 107 The Pacers are off an emotional OT win over a solid Chicago team and now have to travel down to Memphis the next night. I don't think the defensive effort will be there for the Pacers. They are not a great defense anyway and they do like to play at a fast pace. Memphis was off yesterday and lost to NY the night before in a pitiful effort. This club will play better tonight and I think they light up the scoreboard against this Indiana club on their home wood. I think they cover the 9.5 points, but I like the TT over better.
YTD: 2u (3-3) 1u (33-18) Overall (+12.6u)
2 totals for one unit each
Celtics / Sixers under 192
Jazz / Wolves over 207.5
Years ago at a casino, a sharp told me to cap and bet small conferences only and I can make money in college football. Of course, I haven't been patient enough to stick to this philosophy, but I know he has a point. Just wanted to ask all the guys out there if you know anything special about any small conference games, please contribute. These type games may not have been studied as hard by the oddsmakers and there may be some value there. Not saying there can't be value in major conferences, but you can't ignore the advice of a sharp.
Season YTD after Week 4
3 units (5-1) +11.7 units
2 units (8-5) +4.8 units
1 unit (10-5) +4.5 units
YTD +21.0 units
Week 5 plays
Kansas st. +3 (-1.20) for 3 units
C Mich -8 for 2 units
Syracuse +7 (-1.20) for 2 units
Illinois +7 for 2 units
S Diego st. -17.5 for 1 unit
Arkansas -1.5 for 1 unit
N Dame -13 for 1 unit
Auburn +3 for 1 unit
It is currently Ole Miss -3.
I could see this game moving back to -4, but who knows. A lot of people think Ole Miss is the easy play, but lets look at this matchup a little closer.
S Carolina is 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS.
They won their first game 7-3 against NCst. I agree it was an ugly game, but it was the first game of the year and on the road in front of a hungry rowdy crowd. They had 16 first downs to NC's 11, and they outyarded NC 256 to 133 (+123 yards). An ugly win, but a deserving win.
They then played another tough road game at Georgia in a game they lost 41-37. But they could have won this game. They had 26 first downs to Georgia's 16. SC had 427 total yards to Ga's 308, a difference of 119 yards. Georgia was lucky to win this game.
SC then played Fl Atlantic and was favored by 20.5. They won 38-16 so they got the ATS cover. SC and Fl AT both had 21 first downs, but SC outyarded them 516 to 307 (209 yards) Oh, I'm sure many will say that Fl AT got killed by NEB 49-3, But in that game, FL AT and Neb both had 22 first downs and Nebraska out-yarded them by 135 yards. A little closer game than the score suggests.
Let's look at Ole Miss. They are 2-0 and I'm only counting the Memphis game as a real game. In that game, the Rebs won 45-14, but this game was 24-14 with 7 minutes left in the game. Ole Miss had 22 first downs to 19 for Memphis. Total yards were 349 for Ole Miss and 269 for Memphis (only a 80 yard difference.) Snead is a solid QB, but he did not look good against a poor Memphis defense. I will admit that Ole Miss probably didn't want to show their whole playbook against Memphis, so there is an unknown here. But still this was a showcase game for Ole Miss and I'm sure they wanted to be more impressive early in the game.
So we have a top quality matchup in my opinion. Ole Miss has to be favored as per their ranking and last year's wins over Florida and Texas Tech. Plus you have the ol revenge factor in that S Caro beat Ole Miss in Oxford last year.
My opinion: Ole Miss is going to face a VERY much improved S Carolina team that will be excited about having a highly ranked team coming to their place. S Carolina has played a better schedule and could be 3-0 instead of 2-1. The SC defense is going to play well, the crowd is going to loud, and Ole Miss is going to be inconsistent and make mistakes. The Gamecocks is going to pull the upset and win by a TD. I don't think this game will be high-scoring. Something like 27-20 is my prediction.