Monday, July 5, 2010
San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers 4:10 PM
The Giants are coming off of a 15 inning heart-breaker in Coors, where they lost 3 of 4. This is the start of a 4 game set at Miller Park. Rain likely today, but the fan roof makes it a non-factor. Brewers are a slim favorite here, also getting slight % numbers. Giants are catching some tough breaks right now, but this is a quality team. Sanchez has the edge over Bush, but neither pitcher has fared particularly well vs. the other team. Giants bullpen is in need of some rest, and the Brewers pen isn’t much better, which makes picking a side difficult. If there’s a play on this game it is over the 8.5 total as both pitchers are mediocre at best, and have been shelled by the opposing lineup before. Line movement in favor of the Giants (reverse) but fairly balanced action. No bet here, with the bullpens too unpredictable.
Chicago Cubs @ Arizona Diamondbacks 4:10 PM
Cubs go to Chase Field, the climate controlled, desert hitter’s paradise with swimming pool to open up a 3 game set in Phoenix. Cubs are starting the inconsistent lefty Gorzelanny and the Dbacks have their best pitcher (2.0 WAR) righty Ian Kennedy. The Snakes are a short fav, with the line moving in the Cubs favor early (reverse) and getting a slight consensus advantage. Dbacks are kind of a mess right now with Kirk Gibson struggling to right the ship. Neither team is hitting the ball particularly well, but the Dbacks certainly have capable bats. Can’t back Todd here on the road against this Dbacks lineup, but the Snakes won’t get any of my money with their current state. Leaning towards the over here, as the ball should travel a bit in the hot desert air, and both teams should regress towards the mean and break out with a high scoring game. The total is at 9 with the under juiced and most bettors looking to come under that high number.
Baltimore Orioles @ Detroit Tigers 1:05 PM
Rough day for the Tigers yesterday, where Laird and Bonderman got tossed in the fifth after complaining about the officiating. Lee was his usually dominant self and the M’s offense took advantage of a non-existent strike zone. Now they get the O’s for a three game set at Comerica. Millwood hasn’t pitched well lately or against this lineup which features righty powerhouse Miggy and the All-Star snubbed lefty Boesch. Oliver is making his third start overall and has never faced the Orioles. Tigers are one of the big public favs today and the Orioles definitely aren’t getting my money in this spot. The total looks tight at 9.5 with the under juiced. No weather factors in this one, should be sunny with winds right to left. Can’t count on the O’s for runs with their diluted lineup and lack of deep ball threats vs. a pitcher they’ve never seen. No play here. Odds-makers adjusting the line in favor of the O’s to account for Tigers public money coming in.