How much of a factor is this line effected by a Wagner victory over a not ready to play, and overrated Pitt. team. How much of a factor is this line because of a few missed free throws resulting in a loss to a bad Houston Baptist team by Santa Clara. To me I believe are huge factors as to why the line is what it is, a believe the wrong team is favored. Santa Clara is usually very good at home, and their average margin of victory at home this year is by 22.1 points a game. I don't believe Wagner is up the the challenge, and if I may use a Football term, they still may be suffering from a super bowl (beating Pitt.) hangover.
Not a great day yesterday, but I didn't lose any money (except a couple bucks on juice) so I guess it wasn't a "bad" day either. Its funny that both of my losses came on overestimating or underestimating how good some of these top 10 teams are. Maybe I will just stay away from those games HA HA or start focusing on a few things that I may be overlooking. Anyway, time to keep moving, LEGGO:
Eastern Washington + 4.5 vs Montana
The first thing I notice while dissecting this game was the fact that all 6 of Eastern Washington's losses came against teams that quite frankly better than them. What this tells me is that its not a lack of heart this team has, because they beat the lesser teams, its just the fact that they don't have as much talent as these major conference teams. With that being said, EW is still averaging an above average 73 points a game. Montana has already loss two games at home, and in three other games they won by a combined 8 points. This tells me that either A) Its not much of a home court advantage or B) for one reason or another Montana doesn't get up for home games. Either way I really expect EW to come out with the outright win.
My Prediction: 66-63 EW
Towson + 30.5 vs Virginia
Don't get me wrong, I do like this Virginia team, and I believe that they will hold alot of value once they start playing against teams that they're not giving 30.5 points to. Virginia can shoot the lights out, and I saw them play, and impress me, against a good Michigan team. I just think a team thats ranked 30th in fg % should average more than 68 points a game. Virginia's two highest scoring game of the year came against probably the two worst teams they have played, and even then it was 86 points. I don't see them scoring 86 points in this one, 80 tops, so that means towson would have to score less than 50 points to lose, they will do enough to score 50 exactly.
My Prediction Virginia 75-50
Santa Clara + 1.5 vs Wagner
How much of a factor is this line effected by a Wagner victory over a not ready to play, and overrated Pitt. team. How much of a factor is this line because of a few missed free throws resulting in a loss to a bad Houston Baptist team by Santa Clara. To me I believe are huge factors as to why the line is what it is, a believe the wrong team is favored. Santa Clara is usually very good at home, and their average margin of victory at home this year is by 22.1 points a game. I don't believe Wagner is up the the challenge, and if I may use a Football term, they still may be suffering from a super bowl (beating Pitt.) hangover.
My Prediction: Santa Clara 78-71
Mehhhh.... Thats how I feel about my results yesterday. Yes I won 2 and lost 1, but how badly I capped My Syracuse Orange still has me thinking..... well...... what was I thinking? I will say this, if Fab Melo keeps playing like he has this year, I have a hard time finding a team that is capable of beating them when they come out to play. With that said I'm up money, and in the end thats what everyone wants right? Ok, on to today's games.
Akron + 1 vs VCU
I haven't checked the trends on this game, but this line does have that kind of feel to it that makes die hard gamblers think. I may be falling right into the trap that has built many casinos around the world, and I believe Akron pulls this one out. There is only two things that stands out to me when I look at this game, and both favor Akron. 1) Despite the recent run of less than impressive competition, Akron scores on average of 6 points a game more than VCU does. Usually this shouldn't be considered a major factor while capping a game, the thing it tells me is that maybe people don't realize how good this Akron team actually is. First off they only allow an average of 67 PPG to opposing teams, and they are scoring 75. In their last 5 games that number is up to 82-63 all at home, which means they are currently on fire playing in front of their home crowd. 2) Years and Years of watching college basketball has taught me that the way you beat a good defense (I am an SU fan and saw it done to my team on many occasions) is by moving the basketball. Good defenses can key in on one person at a time, and I think VCU's biggest weakness is the lack of ball movement. VCU averages 12 assist a game..... 12.... lets just say you make 25 FG's a game, half of the time their players are going one on one and trying to make the play personally instead of moving the ball around. I know this worked very well last year, and has worked decently so far this year, but I think it will come back to bite them against a better than people thinks Akron team.
My Prediction: 70-66
Harvard -12 Vs Boston College
O how far Boston College basketball has fallen. I remember sitting in the Dome watching BC take on Syracuse, and the games actually had me on the edge of my seat. This BC team are not those teams anymore. How bad is Boston College? Let me count the ways 290th in scoring, 300th in rebounding, 262nd in assist, and 277th in FG %. Any two of these cats. means that you have obvious weaknesses, having all four this poor means that if it was allowed, BC might be an option for contraction. Take away their last three games against horrible mid-major teams a combined 11-25, they are 2-7 and have lost by double digits (important because this line is 12) 5 out of the 9 games. Factor in the level of competition they have faced; Umass, St. Louis, and Penn St. shouldn't be the three hardest games you have played all year. O yea, and they lost them all. While I do not believe this harvard team is a legit title contender, I think they are head and shoulders better than this team. Had the circumstances been opposite; BC ranked 23rd and Harvard as a bad as BC currently is, the line in this game would be 15-16 points. Just because Harvard is a "newcomer" to winning, doesn't mean they won't crush bad teams.
My Prediction: 75-59
Florida -11 vs Rutgers
For the same reason(s) why I dislike Boston College, I love this Florida team. I believe this is the 3rd or 4th best team in the country, so that means I currently think they are being over looked. This team ranks 5th in scoring 18th in rebounding 13th in assist and average FG per game is 48%. And they only allow 65.5 ppg against them. Thats especially impressive when you consider the fact that they are the only team to face the current # 1 and # 2 team in the country. This Rutgers team is not the # 1 : # 2 : or # 65 team in the country and on top of that struggles to score at home against teams with more than 5 wins. I can go on and on and on but you know what....
My Prediction: 85-61
This is my first time capping on this site in a long time. I
am an experienced capper though, and have made more money than I have lost
(which in the end is what everyone here is trying to do).
My system is a very complex one, and it relies on how a
certain team is playing now more than it does past experiences (i.e. I won't
have a lot of "they are 32-21 the last 53 games head to head)
I take totals vs. opponents on the road and at home and
weigh it against how strong the opponent is themself. Make no mistake, that
isn't all that goes into it. But like I said its confusing if I got totally
into it.
So that is just a (VERY) basic outline of what goes into my
thinking before I pick games. All my units will be 1 Unit plays unless I say
otherwise..... SO with that said LEGGO:
YTD (0-0) +/- 0 Units
Seton Hall + 15.5 vs. Syracuse
I just believe this is to many points to give to a good Seton
hall team. Based on *Meaningful Games* Syracuse haven’t been overly impressive
this year, and to be quite honest they have layed
Down more often than not in the second half against teams
they could easily beat by 30 points. Seton Hall averages a mere 6 points less a
game than Syracuse does, and while that may sound like alot, given the talent
on these two teams
I believe Seton hall is getting more out of their talent
than Syracuse is getting out of theirs. Seton Hall has won their first two road
games of the year, while it was against teams ten steps behind Syracuse; it
still is a good accomplishment for a young team.
Also factor in the fact that it is the Big East opener for
both teams, and Seton Hall being pumped up facing the # 1 team in the nation I
just think they are going to be ready to take their best shot.
I am not saying Seton Hall is going to win, but I see a
70-61 type of game.
Ohio St. -16.5 vs. Northwestern
I gave my opinion on the # 1 team, so I might as well do the
number 2 team as well. Let me start off with the Northwestern side though. The talent
level of the competition this team has faced so far this year is borderline embarrassing.
Yes they have played two top 25 teams (lost by average of 18
Points) the rest of the schedule is a mis-match of unknown or teams that are
expected to finish near the bottom of their conferences.
Even with that said, this Northwestern team ranks 298th in
college basketball in rebounding....298th.... against the level of competition
they have been facing, it should be much much higher than that. So what does
that tell me? A lack of a frontcourt presence.
My final point on Northwestern is the fact that they only
played one true road game, and lost by 8, to a decent but not overwhelming
Creighton team. If there is anything we can all agree on is that when Jared
Sullinger is healthy, this team is more talented than
Most (if not all) of the teams in the country. The way you
beat Ohio State is by being physical with them, and crashing the boards,
neither of which Northwestern can do. I just see alot of Jared and Co. beating
a team that is not in the same class as them
My score prediction for this game would be something like
83-62
West Virgina -8 vs. Villinova
West Virgina is for the most part flying under alot of
radars this year, and this is a good matchup for them. West Virginia is
overwhelmingly ranked better in PPG, APG, and FG % than Villinova is.
The only major statistic even close is rebounding and that
is separated by a mere .7 Rebounds a game. Is West Virginia on of the top 25
teams in the country? No... But I do think they are one of the top
65 teams and that is not something I can say about Villinova.
Nova's hot/cold shooting has led to some very unimpressive results this year,
and in my opinion their best game they played this year was a 10 point loss to
Mizzou.
W. Virginia just played their hearts out in a 2 point
overtime loss to Baylor, and the last thing they want is a team less talented
than them going into their home in the Big east opener and beat them.
I think W.Virginia will be ready. Game Prediction: 75-63
So there you have it..... Fade or follow it doesn't matter
to me, but I will let my results do my talking.