Michigan's strength is their run. They do not want to force Robinson to pass. He completes only 56% and has 18/14 td/int. Those are not great numbers. VT also had 15 int's this year (21st)
Michigan has only faced 2 teams with decent (top 50) rush defenses this year. Illinois(25th) and Michigan St(9th). They scored 31 and 14 vs those teams. In the Illinois game Michigan scored 14 points in the 4th quarter because of an int on the Illinois 23 and a failed onside kick.
Michigan does have a much larger O-line than the VT D-line but VT has the 15th ranked rush defense and are tied for 10th in sacks. I also believe they will stack the box and force Robinson to throw nullifying their benefit from size up front. VT defensive ends are pretty fast and should be able to get after Robinson and at least contain him to the middle for short gains.
Mich D-line line is about the same size as the VT O-line so I believe VT will be running Wilson a fair bit to the outside and Thomas up the middle on QB draws. VT also has a much better passing attack with Thomas and has a much deeper receiving corps.
I see this as a 24-21 game for VT.
Playing VT+3.5 - 2 units
Teaser VT +10.5 and U59. - 4 units
I would play the under but I'm afraid of a last second td would cause it to hit 52 and lose. I tend to get moosed a lot especially on under wagers.
I know of pregame.com sportsbook spy but I want to check back at games already played and I don't think you can do that there.
I am curious as to how many times in these bowl games that the under 30% of wagers placed are winning. Seems to be awful lot of them hitting. Only the Boise game I believe did the majority on boise and the over hit.
If the field is soaked and it continues to rain it has to be a clear cut advantage for Ohio. Wet and rainy conditions generally means a lot more rushing of the ball.
Miami are worst (120th) in rushing at 75 yards per game. They had 3 decent rushing games this year vs Akr, Army, Buf who rank 109th, 88th, 93rd vs the run and in those games they still rushed for 50 yards, 25 yards and 60 yards less that the other team's average against. 2 of those games were blowout victories and they focused on the run once they were way up. In Akron Dysert had only 19 attempts and in Buf he had only 25 where typically he has about 35-40 attempts per game. So even when they focus on running they stink.
Ohio ran for over 200 yards in all their games except for 3. Rutgers who are a completely different caliber team who sit atop the Big East. Kent St who are 26th ranked rush defense and Ohio ran for 115 vs their 123 average against. Miami ran for 41 vs Kent St. And Ohio ran for 130 vs Ball St average of 230 which I have no explanation for.
Last year H2H Ohio put up 223 yards rushing and Miami put up 14 on 20 attempts. That's less than a yards per attempt.
As long as the weather remains wet and raining I will be playing the under 53 and Ohio -9 but I will wait until later in the day to confirm with the weather.
Different websites show different information regarding the number of sacks in that game. Some sites show 5 and others show 6.
Even the nfl.com boxscore website only has 2 sacks credited to Minn defensive players(Allen for 1 and Winfield for 1) yet have Rodgers as being sacked 3 times for a loss of 22 yards on the same page.
Does anyone have the proper number of sacks for this game?
Pinnacle is claiming that there was only 5 sacks and screwing me out of a large wager on the over.
In the defense section only 2 sacks were credited to Minn defensive players but..
Under Net yards passing you will see
Net Yards Passing162Net Yards Passing266Times Sacked (Number-Yards)3 - 28Times Sacked (Number-Yards)3 - 22
Great spot for the Bears tonight. Week off to prepare Cutler and the defense vs Vick. Cutler does need all the help he can get. Blowout win by the Eagles leads to the public inflated line.
Both teams defenses are close to the top for least amount of rushing attempts/game and Chi is the highest in pass attempts/game. Cutler is a sack machine and I think the Bears defense gets after Vick tonight. I think we see some nice blitzing schemes from Chicago tonight. Babin for Phi should get Cutler twice and Cole is back and has gotten a sack in every game he has played so he should get 1 sack. I think each side gets 3 sacks or more.
Sacks O5 @-131 4 units
I also think the Bears will cause 2 fumbles by Vick trying to escape the pressure they put on him.
I think this game will be won by the defenses. Meaning a low scoring game. Hopefully Chi can cause a few turnovers and capitalize on them. I see this as a 24-20 type game hopefully for Chicago with a lot of 3 and out's. Give Peppers and Urlacher an extra week to prepare and I think they cause a lot of trouble for the opposing offense.
Total Under 47.5 @-114 2 units
Bears ML @+334 1 unit
Bears +10.5 @-146 2 units (Even if Cutler shits the bed I really don't think the Bears can lose by more than 10 on MNF after a bye week. So I'm willing to pay the extra juice)
Bears TT O17.5 @-114 2 units (Think Hester has 1 magical runback or reception in him and the defense gets a turnover to allow them to score)
Hopefully this game goes as expected and Phi doesn't just blow them out of the water and I lose them all.