Thursday's upset by the Chargers has spiced up the AFC playoff picture heading into the weekend, putting pressure on teams such as Baltimore and
Miami. Somehow the Jets and Titans still have a pulse, too, and each of those clubs is getting points on Sunday against a more talented and equally desperate
NFC foe. Tennessee returns from a disappointing road trip that ended with a
50-burger in Denver and given the situation, this could be a tough spot for the
Titans to bounce back.
- Home teams off three-straight road games
are 6-12 SU/ATS the past three seasons
Coming off a big divisional win over St. Louis, the
Cards are in no position to take their foot off the gas. Arizona’s main
competitors for the NFC Wild Card are San Francisco and Carolina who
respectively are playing winnable game against the Bucs and Jets. Arizona owns
the tie-breaker over Carolina by virtue of a Week 5 win. Including that game
they’ve scored 20-plus points nine games straight (26.4 avg). Against a road
weary Titans D who allows 24.5 on average, look for Bruce Arians to design a
gameplan that gets the Cards in position for a ‘W’.
Pick: Take the Cardinals Team Total OVER
Dallas is off a bye but playing its
fourth road game in their past five. The team’s last outing was one to forget,
a 49-17 beatdown by the New Orleans Saints in Week 10. The score from that game
is still fresh in everyone’s mind and when combined it with the 67 points
Dallas and New York put up in Week 1 the NFL oddsmakers felt an opening total
of 47 was a good projection for this divisional rematch.
But a lot has changed since then
starting with the location and the time of year. This game is at MetLife
Stadium and since 1989 the New York Giants (18-25-3 O/U) are tied with Kansas
City (20-28-4 O/U) for teams most likely (58-percent) to stay under the total
in home games during the month of November. This game also fits a time tested
angle on second meetings during the regular season that is 18-33 to the "Under"
when the first game went over.
The Dallas defense ranks last in the
league for number of yards allowed per game (440) but New York has focused on
the run its past four games (31 carries per game) and the Giants have yet to
show the kind of explosiveness that warrants so high a total. Look for New York
to stick to its ground game, limit the turnovers that cost them in the first
meeting and try to grind out a split for this season series. With Tom Coughlin’s
stubborn game planning this game has UNDER written all over it.
start moving into the second round of their divisional matchups we can start factoring
an element of revenge into equation and this week, the New York Giants are
heading into Philadelphia looking for some payback after a 36-21 loss to the Eagles
in Week 5. New York is playing on a short week after one of the more painful Monday
nighters in recent memory and looking for win No. 2 on the season while trying
to end its streak of eight-straight road losses dating back to Week 10, 2012.
This is a
short turnaround situation meaning that the previous meeting was only two or
three weeks ago and when the first game played "Over" the total, the
general trend in game 2 shows 18 overs, 25 unders and a push. A closer look
shows that Week 17 games went 0-5 O/U which makes sense since a lot of these
games may have been less meaningful. Weather could also factor. That also means
that before Week 17 the record is 18-20-1 O/U and look what happens when we
apply conditions to the total and visiting team’s record:
and H and DIV and P:O and P:season = season and P:week = week -3 and total
>= 40 and week < 17 and o:WP < 40
a total of 40 or more involving road teams with poor records show 10 overs, 2 unders
and a push with the home team scoring an average of 32.9 points. Michael Vick’s
health is key to this contest but keep an eye on that total. If Vick starts,
consider backing the Giants and Eagles OVER 51 points.
The Minnesota Vikings battle for pride with the New York
Giants tonight as usual, the fave and over are getting hit hard. The latest line is Gints' -4 with one book starting to test the waters at O/U 49. When odds were first released for this game in the summer New
York was a 3-point favorite and it's pretty surprising to see a 0-6 team laying more than a field goal but the Giants have been home
favorites between -3 and -7 points 11 times since 1996 when the team’s straight-up
record was below .500 and they went 9-2 SU and 6-4-1 ATS (60-percent). 8 of 11 games stayed under the total and it's worth noting that the average total was 38, or ten points less than the Over/Under odds available right now
Minnesota has been
outscored (32.5 to 27.0), outrushed (123 to 114 yards) and outpassed (317 to
226 yards) in each of its two road starts this season but both games were divisional
and it was Week’s 1 and 2. Last week at home the team was blown away 35-10 and
in the six most recent road games where Minny was coming off a game like that
the Vikes are 5-1 ATS, outrushing opponents 168.5 yards to 86.5.
Monday home favorites between -3 and -10
points who have improved their ATS margin in consecutive weeks show a 16-5 SU record
but it falls to 11-8-2 ATS. Those numbers date back to 1989 and the latest
trends since 2004 are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. The Vikings have the edge in
rushing while New York gets the nod in passing, despite Eli Manning’s league-leading
15 interceptions. Manning is likely to keep firing as he ranks top five in
passing attempts per game (38.3) and while the Vikes have a generous pass D who
allow 67-percent completions they are also fourth in the league for takeaways
behind the Chiefs, Seahawks and Bears.
Some suggest New York's running back duo of Peyton Hillis and Michael Cox will be the difference in this game but anything they can do, AP can do better. Minny's team total is 22.5 and I suspect they will clear that number before the final horn.
Thursday NFL: Niners at Rams The total was on its way down for the first primetime matchup of Week 4 but as is often the case in standalone games, money on the "Over" has stabalized things at O/U 42.
Rams gave up a 136 RYPG at home last season which was fourth worst in the league.
SF rushed for 90 yards on 34 carries against GB (2.6 RYPC), 100 on 20 carries against the stout SEA D (5 RYPC) and then 115 vs. Indy (5 RYPC).
The difference in the three games is that the Niners were trailing the past two weeks right from the get-go.
STL is not a fast-start team under HC Fisher and at home, they are only scoring 3.3 PPG in the first quarter since the start of 2012 and 8.4 avg first-half points.
In three games this season the Rams have failed to score a single point in the first 15 minutes and their second quarter points against the Cards, Falcons and Cowboys went 10-3-0.
Niners are a good road team and last year they went 5-2 SU/ATS in regular season games east of the Pacific Time zone (got whupped in Seattle Week 16). They only allowed 5.9 first-half points per game and the only one of those seven games that went to half-time with more than 20 total points was Week 12 in New Orleans (14-14). The other six games finished with an avg of 16.2 first-half points.
I think the Niners stay committed to the run game in St. Louis and try to wear down the Rams D. Since Harbaugh took over the Niners have averaged 29.6 carries per game away from home and that number stays fairly consistent against divisional foes (28.9 RAPG). Would expect Gore to get at least 20 touches and Kapper to makes some plays with his legs, keeping a close eye on Boldin to get open.
Lean Niners and the under but I don’t want to lay divisional road points. With both teams coming off a loss I also think if either was able to pick up some momentum it could get ugly (and OVER) in a hurry.
Play is on the first-half UN 21 points