Posted Monday, April 15, 2013 03:32 PMKesler has four
points in three games since coming back and he has usually had good success vs.
the Preds. Nux are rolling and they need a W here to keep this road trip on the
winning side of the ledger. No looking ahead to anything; still three roadies
to go and VAN wants to hang onto that top divisional seed for home ice during
round 1. It's the surest way they will reap the rewards of a full house for the
max number of games in a shortened season. Gotta pay those steep ‘2-goalie
system’ bills. Preds are done.
Also
playing the total in this one. After winning four-straight the 'Nucks hit a
bump in the Rockies. They fell behind in the first, coughed up a lead in the third
and even failed to gain a single point when they allowed the game winner in the
dying seconds. Maybe lay some of the blame on an early start at high elevation but
those excuses won’t be enough to prevent AV from trying to re-establish the gameplan
that’s lead this year’s team to a 6-11-3 O/U road record.
Starting goaltenders for tonight are Roberto Luongo and Pekka Rinne.
The Preds
are 8-12-2 O/U at home this year (4.7 GPG) and 1-5 O/U at home in April. Since
March 30, Nashville is 2-6-1 O/U and getting outscored 2.6 to 1.2 (3.8 GPG).
My money is on Vancouver -.5 goal in regulation (+106) and the game to stay Under 5 goals (-110)
The 'Nucks are
looking to snap a four-game losing streak (0-2-2) that includes a 2-1 OT loss
in this same building last Thursday (Mar.7). Road faves off a road loss looking
for same season revenge are 64-38 since 2006, the Canucks have been "live"
five times in this profile and they are 5-0 but when the road team is favored
by more than -130 the win percentage drops significantly (25-20 SU).
Since 2009,
ML faves of -135 or more were 14-3-1 SU and 5-12-1 O/U. All five overs were
high scoring clubs (CHI x2, ANA, SJ and VAN). Those games were also against teams
with terrible D and yes, Columbus was the victim twice. But these are not the
same old 'Nucks and the Jackets are riding high.
The Jobs
were 1-4 in Bobrovsky’s first five home games this season but since then they
are 3-0 and he’s only allowed two goals against VAN, COL and DET. Lou’s overall
record against CBJ is 9-5 with a 2.18 GAA. He didn’t look great in his last two
road games at CGY/DET but I think he’s going to bounce back.
Books are asking -143 for this game Under 5.5 but if you split the adjusted price to UN 5/5.5 the juice drops to -113. I'm in on that play for two units.
Looking at the Oilers-Wings game and the juice is kind of high
but I don’t see this being a good spot for Edmonton to snap their losing
streak.
EDMONTON OILERS AT DETROIT RED WINGS
The Oilers
are giving up a ton of shots night in and night out and Detroit averages more
than 29 per game at home with a respectable 3.07 scoring average. DET has
played four-straight low scoring games but they are 9-1 the last 10 vs. EDM and
have won six in row at the Joe since 2010. If there was ever a time to fire off
the canons, why not here?
Since 2010,
EDM is 18-39-4 on the road vs. teams who average 29-plus SOG including a
current 2-6 slump where the Oil has been outscored 20-13 (1-7 O/U).
team=Oilers
and A and oA(shots on goal)>=29 and season>=2010
Columbus
fired 38 shots against Edmonton Tuesday and when playing on the road with a day
of rest off a previous road gm, EDM is 0-10-2 the past three seasons (0-2 this
year; 0-3 last season).
A and p:A
and po:shots on goal >= 35 and season >= 2010 and team = Oilers and rest
= 1
I’m taking
a shot with the Wings -.5 in regulation at even money (2 units).
A few notes
on from the Houston @ New England game:
NE is 5-2
SU in this round since 2003. In the past three (3-0 O/U), the Pats have put up
31-21-45 PPG. The 21 was a home loss to NYJ two years ago and that’s the setup that
keeps coming up on preview shows this week because of the similarity from
earlier in that year when the Pats whupped the Jets 45-3 on MNF. They beat HOU
42-14 on MNF in Wk 14 this year and the Texans D allowed and avg of 20.2 PPG
this year (20.8 on the road). In 2010, that Jets D allowed 19.2 PPG and 23.5
PPG on the road.
NE’s
offense has escalated from 26 PPG in 2008 and `09 up to 31.5 in 2010 and `11
and now 34.8 PPG this season.
Since 2006,
not including two Super Bowl appearances, the Pats have averaged 31.5 PPG off a
bye week (10 games), home or away.
Since 2002,
playoff home faves with a total of 48 points or more are 14-6 SU, 10-10 ATS and
13-7 O/U.
In the DF
and CC round the record improves to 10-4 O/U and the average final score has
totalled 53 points.
Based on a
total of 24, first-half stats for those 14 games are 11-3 O/U since 2002 and the
average score at the break was 16-14.
NE (18.1)
and HOU (14.1) were first and fourth in first-half scoring this season and even
though they were slightly better in opposite sites (h/a), the setup for this
game shows an avg half-time score of 16.5-13.2 for the Pats.
HOU at NE
is the only dome/road team outdoors this week and in all playoff rounds since 2009-10,
these games are 2-4 O/U but it’s warm in Foxboro with fog/mist and light winds.
There is only a 20-percent chance of precip.
HOU is good
in time of possession and the popular theory is that they are going to lean
more on Foster for this game than they did in the first meeting but Brady’s
offense doesn’t need a lot of time to score TDs. Besides, if Houston falls
behind Schaub is going to have to throw the ball and non-divisional road teams off
Wild Card win who came into the playoffs off a loss do not have a very good straight-up
record.
Brady’s
numbers vs. Wade Phillips Defenses: 3-1 SU, 60-percent completions, 297 passing
yards and a 12:4 TD to INT ratio
Leaning
full game over but only bet is on first-half OV 24.
I noticed a couple trends from late last
season where dogs in a game with a total of 49.5 or more were getting ripped
(3-11 ATS) and the games were going "Over" at a rate of 11-3 (from Wk
10 out).
D and 49.5<=total and
(2011,10)<=(season,week)<=(2011,17)
Since Wk 10 this year, the dogs in these
games are 2-4 ATS and the totals, if you count the Pats-Jets game from Thursday,
are 4-1-1 O/U.
I messed around with the numbers, tried
to clean up the search and here’s the easiest way to say what I have found to
be the most profitable angle:
Home faves in the second-half of the season
since 2010 are 26-5 SU, 18-13 ATS and 22-9 O/U.
In a 6-point teaser, the faves are 25-6 ATS
and the "Over" is 28-3.
HF and 48<=total and season>=2010
and 17>=week>=10
Depending where that line goes for ATL at
T-Bay, there are up to four games "live" on Sunday in Week 12:
ATL-TB -1, O/U 50.5
OAK-CIN -9.5, O/U 50.5
BUF-IND -3, O/U 50.5
GB-NYG -3, O/U 50.5
It’s not a huge sample of games but more
recent trends coincide with all the changes from the past two years such as
stricter rules on how defenders can hit/tackle, automatic scoring reviews and now
automatic turnover reviews. It’s like each team gets eight or nine timeouts per
game now instead of the old ‘six’ and great coaches and co-ordinators make good
use of the free time.
To me, the “second-half of the season”
parameter makes sense because truly good teams will naturally get better as the
season wears on. They are trying to peak for the playoffs and these important home
games are perfect opportunities to play their best ball.
Bad teams, meanwhile, are already increasing
the snaps for second and third teamers as they try to gauge their talent pool
for next season. Injuries in some cases have triggered a move down the depth chart
but either way, the offenses are scoring 34.9 points per game and the dogs are
doing their part with a 21.2 scoring average.
Personally I have not bet any of these
totals just yet but I’m looking at all four games, seeing if first-half or team
totals perhaps offer more value. Just wanted to share the info.
GLTA