I'm not a Raiders fan, but something was very wrong with the officials during the Chargers / Raiders game. The Raiders scored a TD at the end of the first half. The officials called it a TD. Then it was reviewed. The receiver caught the ball, landed in the end zone with both feet, and had possession until he hit the ground. The call was so bad that ESPN's announcer went to the officials during halftime to ask them for an explaination. They said that they only had one view, and that they really couldn't tell, but it kinda, sorta looked like maybe the receiver didn't have possession. They aren't supposed to overturn a call on the field without irrefutable evidence, and I'm having a hard time swallowing the idea that they only had the replay from one angle available.
This has the putrid smell of Las Vegas all over it. So, I checked the opening and closing lines.
The opening lines were
Chargers -6.5 -105
Raiders +6.5 -105
The closing lines were
Chargers -10 +100
Raiders +10 -108
The point spreads tell one story, and the odds tell the opposite story. Not exactly a smoking gun, but we are talking about the integrity of the NFL. The NFL commissioner needs to clean this mess up.
Don't feel obligated to meet a quota for football picks this week unless you're in a contest that explicitly requires it. When you place a bet at a sports book, the spread and the vigorish are enough of a handicap on you. Don't add to it by trying to meet an imaginary, self-imposed quota. This week I see only one bet that I like. Next week, I may not find any. That's what happens when you're looking for bargains. Sometimes there aren't any. And you should be looking for bargains.
Don't place a bet with more than a 10% vigorish. Here are the break even percentages for the following odds.
ODDS BREAK-EVEN
-110 52.38%
-115 53.49%
So, for example, if you have a respectable 55% ATS record, the extra 5% vigorish has stolen almost half of your profit (42.37%).
20 years ago, no book would've had the balls to charge over 10%. You should be insulted by anything over 10%. Be a cheapskate and walk away from such a sucker bet.
I've read a fair number of articles on money management, and few bother to mention this.