Welcome back College Hoops
Oh how I have missed you
Uconn +4.5 1H
Moving into the first weekend in MAY is always a good time to start betting. I've done my homework and look forward to another great baseball season. Good to see you friends.
First play of the year:
Mike Leak for the Reds overachieved all season long last year. He is 2nd tier at best and a struggling Pitt lineup should get their swings in today. In James Mcdonald's last 17 innings against the Reds, he has allowed only 4 ER in 17-1/3 innings. Pitt gets the W at a cheap price today. Even with Pitt being the weakest offensive team in my power ratings (Pitt: 100, Reds: 119) I still have them as a -144 favorite in this game, nearly a 40 cent difference from the line.
Good luck boys, going to be a great season, just like college basketball. Look forward to seeing some posts from some old friends.
Whats up boys! Oh how I do love me some CBB.
Central Mich +2
Santa Barbara -7
Mid Tenn St +11
No play on Mich st but I think they get it done tonight to spoil ratface's party. Mich st ML
GL today brothers
Bengals -2.5 (1.5 units)
The Bengals have pushed their way out of the gate to a nice 2-0 ATS and 1-1 SU record. The streak continues as the 49ers travel for the early game into the ET zone. Andy Dalton has actually been decent posting a QB rating of 105.7 (take that Carson Palmer!) and the running game is sustainable. Bensen is 9th overall in yards rushing in the league and AJ Green has a 165 yards receiving. He also has 4 plays of 20+ yards from the line of scrimmage. They are 8th in points allowed (don't get too excited, playing CLE and DEN in your first two games one would expect a top 10 ranking here). Alex Smith looked horrible again in his last game, in which the 49ers blew a late lead. An interesting note about that game, it has been reported the shoestring tackle on the one yard line cost betters 74 million dollars worldwide. Amazing. Anyway, back to this game and why the 49ers will get beat. The 49ers threw the kitchen sink at Dallas and came away with an emotional defeat. They should come out flat for the early morning game. 49ers also a small dog coming off a loss as home dog, not a favorable position. On top of that line movement has moved against the public money, suggesting smart money has spoken.
Sunday brought one the worst 2nd halves of football in the Lovie Smith era in Chicago. The offensive line was terrible. Culter was sacked six times in the loss and threw the ball 29 times in the second half compared to just 2 rushes. Really Mike Martz? Lance Louis, the Bears starting right guard is listed as doubtful for Sunday's game. This means Frank Omiyale will have to step into this role. There is a reason the Bears have him on the second string after two years with the first squad. Cutler will likely not have the time he needs to make solid throws, causing poor decisions and leading to interceptions. I predict 2 to be exact. Green Bay on the other hand has been a scoring machine. Despite only having the ball for 3 quarters on Sunday, Rogers still put up 28 points. If the selfish Panthers hadn't kept the ball all of the first quarter, it may have been another huge knockout by the offensive giant, much like the hit Money Mayweather put on Victor Ortiz the other night. The loss of Nick Collins is notable but the Packers D is well-rounded. This should be a close contest for most of the game until the Packers pull away in the 4th. Dom Capers will confuse the Bears offensive line, bring blitz early and often, and shut down all 9 running plays that Mike Martz calls.
Chiefs +15 (1.5 units)
I know, I know what you're thinking. How could anybody bet on the Chiefs in this game? But we all saw what happened to Baltimore backers last week against the Titans. The NFL is a strange world and this is my favorite play of the week. Sound crazy? Maybe not after I explain. Kansas has multiple profitable angles working here.
First of all, divisional dogs of 7 or more are always worth taking a look at. In this case, we are more than twice that. KC is also a divisional road team avenging a 14+ point loss to SD late last season. They also are coming off a loss of more than 4 TDs and more than 25 pts ATS, both are profitable angles. In fact, they are coming off of consecutive 25pt ATS losses. They are also a road dog coming off a loss playing in 2nd straight road game. The emotion of this Chiefs team completely turned when Charles went down with his first quarter injury. The Chiefs will be more focused for this matchup. An interesting stat I found called 'third times a charm' states playoff teams that start 0-2 SU to start the following season are 13-7 ATS last 20 games. San Diego on the other hand is coming off a tough loss to a Pats. Not only are they a double digit favorite coming off a loss (a trend known as a false favorite in Vegas), but find themselves in a great letdown spot. After an emotional and challanging game that got away late, they travel home to play the lowly Chiefs, a spot they are surely to come out flat. San Diego has a track record of playing poorly in the first half of the season under Norv Turner and has never covered such a large spread under his tenure.
Tampa Bay -1
The Bucs welcome into town the NFC South Champions and NFC No.1 seed from a year ago, the Atlanta Falcons into Raymond James Stadium on Sunday. LeGarrette Blount finally got things going 'punching' in two TDs against the Vikings last week and I expect to see this continue. The Bucs are averaging 4.6 yards per attempt on the ground and rank 15th overall in passing under a growing and improving Josh Freeman. Freeman should be able to thrash the Falcons secondary, which ranks 27th against the pass. Take the Falcons out of the dome and they never play well. A big indication as to where this game is going lies in the line movement. This game opened at Tampa +1 and quickly moved to -1 and -1.5 at some shops. Unfortunately, I don't any any great angles to support this pick. The return of Tanard Jackson and strong offensive line play in front of Josh Freeman should prove to be the difference in this game.
The public is pounding the J-E-T-S yet sharps are moving the line against the public. The Jets inability to run the football is really putting pressure on young Mark Sanchez. The Jets are calling way too many passing plays causing them to get away from their smashmouth roots. The front four of the Raiders are tearing it up and might rival the best in the league. This Raider team is really starting to buy into what Hue Jackson is selling. The travel to the west coast and on deck schedule for the JETS put them in a very bad spot. They travel to Baltimore next week, then travel to the Patriots, their third consecutive road game. Look for Marky to toss a pair of picks (yes even into the very suspect Raiders secondary). Raiders likely win SU.
Additional leans: Seahawks, Vikings, Buffalo
Season Record 4-4 (Drinking the Juice)
I don't think a write up is necessary here. Saints are a false favorite playing a solid Bears squad that could potentially win this game straight up. I look for Mike Martz to move the chains and get it done here.
The Chargers continue to have fire power on offense and problems on special teams. However, 7 points is just a crazy number for this team to catch against a Patriots defense that looked more than exploitable in Monday night's game agsinst the Dolphins. Chad Henne threw for over 400 yards in the affair. Since Philips Rivers is twice as good as Henne, he should be able to throw for around 800 yards or so. This line may also be an over-reaction to the Chargers game against the Vikings. Although they trailed big in the game, the Chargers dominated in every aspect (except those pesty special teams!). Patriots will come off a short week and with everybody praising them after an exciting Monday night game that everybody watched, I look for a letdown here as Chargers cover.
Peyton is out and this might continue for awhile. The Colts come home after an embarrassing loss on the road to the Texans only to find another opponent coming off a bad loss; the BROWNS! Colt and Browns got beat up at home against Cincy and boy was it ugly. They were not able to move the ball or stop the ball on the defensive side. The veteran Colts team here gets the W and eases the storm at least for another week.
I missed the line on this game as it has moved to -3 at the time of this writing. That really surprised me as I am buying the Bills 100 percent. From the looks of things, the sharps of Vegas are also as it was the heaviest bet play for the Hilton Supercontest of the week by a landslide. They don't call these guys sharp for nothing and as you'll recall it was also my favorite play of week last week. Oakland is getting some respect as their D-Line looked strong against the Broncos on Monday but let's face it, thjs Raider team over achieved last year and likely won't repeat the success it had. The Raiders had a ATS Margin of +5.7 (2nd only to the Patriots at +8.4). Anytime a team breaks over 2 standard deviation of the mean of 5.2 pts ATS margin for a season, it makes them a big target as a go against team the following year. Another reason to fade the Raiders here is the early start time of this game for a West coast team traveling to the Easter Time Zone is never a good indication for a cover. Take into account they are coming off a short week and matters only get worst.
You might be surprised to hear I was impressed with the Bengals play on Sunday. Let's not get carried away, I had very low expectations for this team and walked away slightly optimistic about what they might be able to do moving forward. The divisional road win to open the season is a huge confidence boost. Denver is a home favorite coming off a loss making them a false favorite, a great betting angle. They also nearly fall into another catagory, the 6 and 6 rule. You have probably heard of this rule, any team projected 6-10 or worst laying 6 points is always a sharp bet against team. Here the Broncos are favored by 5 coming off a home loss with back-to-back road games approaching. Going to be a long season for the Blue and Orange.
If you are patient, you may get this at +9. Nobody has any faith in the KS Chiefs. And.....maybe they shouldn't, the chiefs looked just awful last week as the Bills stuck it to them. Then again if your on the Bills train like I am, you might realize maybe that was just a bad matchup for the Chiefs, after all isn't this what the NFL is all about - THE MATCHUP?? The Lions are a nice looking team but asking them to cover this many points is like asking Paris Hilton to spell 'ambiguous'. This is just the type of spot the Lions will tend to choke. Everybody is high on the kool-aid. I look for Charles to gash the Lions here and the betting market to get gashed along with it!
Washington invites the AZ Cardinals into the pig pen on an early Sunday morning (for a another west coast team!) Kolb is still getting comfortable and the defense is still missing some of their key players from last season. Little can be said for the work Mike Shanny has done with Rex Grossman at the QB position. I have long thought Grossman would never pop up again in the NFL but what do you know, he's back and well, he looks good! For now.... Of course we have all heard this story before. QB rating of 110 one game and 35 the next. I don't expect that to be the case against an AZ team that doesn't have the parts and pieces on defense. I think Washington is a serious contender to win the NFC East. There I said
GL to all