Experienced a freak
occurrence last weekend with an 8-1 mark, but my faders should keep the
faith. I'm a longtime gambler with a proven track record of losing, so
another dreary handicapping week could be just around the corner.
Last week: 8-1
Texas A&M -7 at Mississippi State: Have been successful playing SEC teams over the newest conference members, but we're flying in the face of that this week. Bulldogs were exposed last week as a team that built its record against patsies. Georgia Tech -8.5 at Maryland: I don't typically let to bet against backup quarterbacks, but holy shit. Injuries have forced the Terps to start a former middle linebacker at signal-caller? Gotta give it a go. Nebraska -1 at Michigan State: Heard a Vegas tout on the radio say, "The day I lay points with Taylor Martinez on the road against a physical defense is the day I quit gambling." While I have to agree, just have a gut feeling that the Huskers are due for a surprisingly good performance. Sounds worth betting on, doesn't it? Iowa +3 at Indiana: Just simply can't buy the Hoosiers as a field-goal favorite -- even at home. I'm sure I'll find out why. Pittsburgh +17 at Notre Dame: Simply playing against the Irish after a big win at Oklahoma. Mississippi +14 at Georgia: Simply playing against the Bulldogs after a big win over Florida. Baylor -17 vs. Kansas: Jayhawks shot their wad against Texas -- only to lose. This could get ugly. Southern California +9 vs. Oregon: Could you have ever imagined getting the Trojans and LSU at home as nearly double-digit dogs on the same weekend? LSU +9 vs. Alabama: Could you have ever imagined getting the Trojans and LSU at home as nearly double-digit dogs on the same weekend?
UCLA -3.5 vs. Arizona: Wildcats probably still haven't come down from beating Southern California.
Finally came through with the promised big losing performance in Week 8, going 2-5. Let's see if we can keep it going for fading success
Last week: 2-5; Season: 8-12
Colorado +47.5 at Oregon: Because I when 40 or more points is offered, I always take it.
Michigan St. +6 at Wisconsin: Spartans suck on offense, but that defense should be good enough to keep this close. Still thinking Wisconsin is soft this year.
Georgia +7 vs. Florida @Jacksonville, Fla.: Gators due for a bit of a letdown, aren't they?
Kansas State -7.5 vs. Texas Tech: Considering all of the money I have lost in the past two years betting against the Wildcats, why not ride with Bill Snyder and Co.? This will surely turn the tide.
Ohio State -1 at Penn State: Nice turnaround by the Nittany Lions, but here's guessing the Buckeyes still have better talent -- even if QB Braxton Miller isn't 100 percent healthy.
Notre Dame +13 vs. Oklahoma: Sooners are better, but Irish might actually believe they're legit, too -- at least enough to hang around and cover.
Nebraska -1.5 vs. Michigan: Don't usually like hitching my wagon to the Huskers in big-game situations lately, but have a feeling Nebraska is due to get on the right side of the turnover margin for once.
Alabama -23.5 vs. Mississippi State: Seems like everyone is playing this, but I'm still not turning away. Miss. State has played a shit schedule on its way to being undefeated.
Washington +3.5 vs. Oregon State: Just to see how many times the Beavers can beat me this season.
Last week: 3-4; Season: 6-7
Two lukewarm weeks so far, but never fear -- it will catch up with me soon. I'm due for a truly brutal weekend, so here are my Week 8 selections to fade:
Ohio State -18.5 vs. Purdue: The Buckeyes gave up half a hundred last week -- and still won -- while Purdue was exposed as a pretender for the second consecutive week. You'd think that the Boilermakers would show up at some point, but we'll say "not yet."
LSU -4 at Texas A&M: I hear that I'm going against several "sharp" plays here, but that's never stopped me before! Betting "old SEC" teams over "new SEC" teams like the Aggies and Missouri has been good to be so far.
Iowa State +14 at Oklahoma State: No numbers to back this up, but when it comes to supposed "revenge games," I always like the underdog who will supposedly be getting drilled. Some may say it was a fluke that the Cyclones upset the Cowboys last year in Ames, but sometimes, it's just a matter of matchups or clash of styles. We're going with it.
BYU +14 at Notre Dame: Really thought the Cougars were a good play last week at home as a 5.5-point favorite against Oregon State -- WRONG! However, you're always getting extra points fading the Golden Domers, so let's bet that this is Letdown Week in South Bend.
Navy -3 vs. Indiana: The Hoosiers have played their collective balls off the last two games, just coming up short in bids to upset Michigan State and Ohio State. Now, Indiana steps out of the Big Ten to play a lesser-name foe ... supposedly.
TCU +2 vs. Texas Tech: Horned Frogs showed they were vastly under-rated with their backup QB at the controls, but for me, this is simply about fading the Red Raiders after their big win over West Virginia.
Colorado +41 at Southern California: Because I hear that if you blindly play every underdog of 40 points or more you win at a rate of 56 percent. I heard it, so it must be gold, right?
After going 3-3 ATS in Week 5, I had to take Week 6 off to bask in all the success. So my apologies for costing any faders the juice. We'll try and to better this week with our "plays to fade":
West Virginia -4 at Texas Tech: Clearly this is a trap that I'm prepared to walk right into, considering that Oklahoma just bombed the Red Raiders on their home field last week at roughly the same point spread. Yes, it's a sandwich game for the Mountaineers, who are coming off a big win at Texas and playing Kansas State next week, but what the hell?
Texas +3.5 vs. Oklahoma @Dallas: This game screws me every year I play it, so this should be a five-star lock on the Sooners. I always figure the points are too many in a rivalry game like this.
Iowa +10 at Michigan State: Once again, another trap I'm prepared to fall into. The Spartans had to rally to beat Indiana and didn't appear to have much offense against Ohio State, so we'll just assume that they won't score enough to beat Iowa by 11, assuming the Hawkeyes can throw a few scores on the board.
Wisconsin +3 at Purdue: The Boilermakers are favored over Wisconsin one week after getting skull-drug by Michigan? Sure, the Badgers suck, too, but I'll take them to win outright on the road here.
Virginia Tech -10 vs. Duke: The Hokies looked shitty last time out and this looks like too many points. We'll take 'em.
LSU -3 vs. South Carolina: We're not really buying the notion that the Gamecocks are THAT good, are we?
BYU -6 vs. Oregon State: Cougars will win 7-0. You might be able to shop for a better line if you like BYU. I saw it as low as -4.
Last time (Week 5): 3-3
WEEK 5 (lines from Bovada.lv)
Illinois -1 vs. Penn State: The Illini gets bitch-slapped at home last
week by Louisiana Tech and is now a one-point home favorite against an
improving Penn State squad? Yep, you know where we're going here.
Arkansas +14 at Texas A&M: One of the few trends that I have been winning
with this season is fading former Big 12 Conference schools in SEC play. Sure,
the Razorbacks are having problems, but I can't turn down two touchdowns
against the Aggies.
Northern Illinois -10 vs. Central
I always fade a team after it pulls off a big-time upset.
UCLA -20 at Colorado: Still pissed that I lost fading the Buffaloes
last week. "Thank you, sir! May I have another?"
South Florida +17 vs. Florida State: Seminoles
won their "big" game last week against Clemson and now have been
crowned as one of the national media's top choices as a national championship
contender. Could be a big-time letdown spot here today.
Arizona -3 vs. Oregon State: Nice win by the Beavers last week at UCLA,
while the Wildcats were getting trucked at Oregon. Freaky that Arizona could score zero first-half points while making
five trips into the red zone.