My picks for Saturday:
M. United-West Ham: >3 (1.70);
Man United has 9 overs in their last 10 games overall and 10 overs in their last 10 home games. They also had 25 overs in 38 EPL games last season. Clearly a team with great fire power upfront.
West Ham had 23 overs in 38 EPL games last season.
Offensive teams meeting here and I do expect many goals in this game.
Roma-Cesena: >2.5 (1.81);
Roma had 25 overs in 38 Serie A games last season and the team and coach are the same with Brazilian striker Adriano joining a already powerful team.
Roma also scored and conceded goals in all of their last 7 home games.
Cesena has an impressive 5-5-0 record in their last 10 away games (Serie B has they were promoted) and has scored goals in all of their last 7 away games.
I do expect several goals on this one.
Levante-Sevilla: Sevilla (2.19;
Levante comes from the "Liga Adelante" and lost the previous 3 home meetings at home to Sevilla.
Sevilla is by far a much better team but are in poor form at the moment and were trashed by Barça last weekend and lost at home to Braga the game and the possibility of being in the Chamipons League this season.
Still, after Barça and Real they're most likely (along with At. Madrid and Valencia) the best club in Spain and with players like Jesus Navas, Renato, Fabiano and Kanoute they're the favorites to win any game in Spain apart from the ones with the big clubs.
Hope they show some pride today and I have to take them to win at this price.
Hercules-A. Bilbao: >2.25 (2.03);
Hercules scored in all of their last 6 home games and has 5 overs in those games.
Bilbao scored in 5 of their last 6 away games and also has 5 overs in those games.
Previous 2 meetings between these teams at Hercules resulted in overs (2-2 and 3-2).
I like the over 2.25 at this nice price.
Malaga-Valencia: <2.5 (1.79);
Malaga has a new coach in Portuguese Jesualdo Ferreira (former Porto coach in the last 4 seasons) who's a good coach but a defensive one.
Malaga has 4 unders in their last 6 home games while Valencia has 4 unders in their last 6 away games.
The 4 previous meetings at Malaga all went under the total.
It is also extremely hot in Iberia (Portugal and Spain) at the moment and at game time the temperature will most likely be at over 35º in Malaga (Southern Spain).
I do expect the under here.
Nacional-Guimarães: <2.5 (1.55);
Nacional has 8 unders in their last 10 home games and the last one at home to Benfica resulted in an over from 2 huge mistakes from Benfica Keeper and Benfica scoring in injury time.
Guimarães has 6 unders in their last 10 away games and new coach Manuel Machado was Nacional's coach for many years until last season (meaning he knows the players and the club like the palm of his hand). Guimarães didn't have a very good start of the season and today they will be keeping at keeping it tight and try to score out of a set piece or fast counter attack.
In the previous 8 games in Choupana between the teams 6 went under the total and I think it will happen again today.
Benfica-Setúbal: >2.75 (1.81);
Benfica won the title last season in great fashion with a 14-1-0 home record (tied only the 1st home game to Marítimo and won all the others), scoring an average of 3 goals per game at home and losing only 2 games the entire season in the Superliga (away to Braga and Porto).
This season they lost Ramires and Di Maria and changed the Keeper. All the rest is basically the same (players and coach). The thing is that Benfica failed to replace the stars that left, the new Keeper sucks so far (they paid 8.5 Million Euros for him and now it looks he's on his way out for a loan or something with Keepers Doni, Roma, and Marchetti, Udinese holding conversations with Benfica) and striker Oscar Cardozo (who scored 26 goals in the Superliga last season) is in horrible form so far.
Today, Argentinian winger/forward Salvio will debut for Benfica and Hlleb seems to be on his way to also join to replace Ramires.
Benfica will go all in today in a game they must win as they cannot waste any more points. I think Cardozo will start socring today as they did last season (scored his 1st goal in the 3rd round of the Superliga).
Setúbal has a decent and experienced team and coach this season and wil surely be doing what every small club (it's the culture of the small clubs in Portugal) does at Estádio da Luz: delay the game, play with the clock and do nothing but defend and look for a setpiece or something to try to cause some damage.
Benfica should win and we'll most likely see several goals in the game.
Season record to date: 27 1/2-13 1/2-2 (67.07%) and +12.08 units.
My first picks for the European Competition games this week:
Sevilla-Braga: Sevilla to qualify (1.71);
Sevilla completely outplayed Braga in the 1st half of the 1st game but Braga are like that (like the old Italian way of playing), they hang in there and when you least expect they sting you on a set piece or a fast counter attack.
Sevilla are the much better and experienced team and playing at home will end up qualifying to the group stage. Odd is way too low for the home win and we have to remember this is the game of a lifetime both for Braga as a Club and the coach and players (meaning they will fight like never before).
I think the best option is on Sevilla to qualify at this odd.
Sampdoria-W. Bremen: >2.5 (1.70);
Both teams scored in the 1st game and after losing 3-1 Sampdoria needs to score at least 2 goals.
Sampdoria scored in al of their last 10 home games while Bremen scored in all of their last 10 away matches.
I see it very likely for both teams to score again tonight and I think this is a good price for a win.
Start the weekend with a bet on Friday in the Superliga.
I decided to stay away form the Bayern game (too early, important players missing, some changes at Wolfsburg...).
Académica-Olhanense: draw (3.22);
Both teams played well in their Superliga debut, have similar value and will fight to avoid relegation.
Playing at home Académica are the slight favorites but last year they only won 4 home games the entire season and I do not expect it to be much different this season.
These teams drew 1-1 last season in this matchup.
I do expect a tight and probably low scoring game here and see the draw as a nice pick at this price.
My picks for today and tomorrow:
Braga-Sevilla: >2 (1.70);
Bate Borisov-Marítimo: Bate Borisov (2.05);
Genk-Porto: >2.5 (1.95);
Sporting-Brondby: Brondby +1.5AH (1.70);
Maritimo-Setubal: Maritimo (1.63);
Naval-Porto: Naval +1AH (2.34);
P. Ferreira-Sporting: P. Ferreira +0.5AH (2.11);