I've been a losing gambler for 10+ years for the record.  I started tracking baseball stats 3 years ago.  Here's what I got.  Starting with the 8th series of the season:  A team over 500 at home playing a team under 500 wins at least 1 game in the series 88% of the time.  If you play the series progressive you WILL have an 88% win ratio.  So if you play to win a 1000 you increase your bets to win that 1000 for the series.  THE problem is the 3rd game gets so expensive that if it falls into the 12% range and your laying a big number you could wipe out 4 weeks worth of bankroll on 1 series just to win 1000.  I modified it since then and the same theory applied to just the first 2 games of a 3 game set is still 82% and if it loses you take the loss.  Now because of the ML being so varied there is no way to come up with a % win on a bankroll BUT I believe you could be somewhere in the 57% range after taking the hits........THOUGHTS!!