LOUISVILLE +8.5 (2 UNITS)
DETROIT PICK (2 UNITS)
GEORGIA STATE PICK (2 UNITS)
OVER CINCY/VILLA 137.5 (1.5 UNITS)
NORTHWESTERN +2 (1.5 UNITS)
received many inquiries about a piece I wrote in March 2008 on
Covers about betting baseball and I feel this piece is my most valuable
contribution at Covers. Many have enjoyed reading it and I wanted to post it
again before the baseball season begins. For those who have read it previously,
I am sorry for the redundancy although I have added text and made numerous
revisions. Best of luck to everyone this baseball season.
March 2008 (revised in March 2009 and March 2010).
BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.
There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball,
but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken
completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting
because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any
other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.
In the NFL this season, the Indianapolis Colts were 14-2 winning 87.5% of their
games. The worst team in the NFL this past season was the St. Louis Rams at
1-15, winning just 6.25% of the time.
In the NBA
this season, Cleveland is currently 47-14 winning 77% of their games and Lakers
are 45-15 winning 75% of their games. The worst team in the NBA is the New
Jersey Nets at 6-53 winning 10.2% of the time.
In NCAA Basketball this season, Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky are all 27-2 with
a 93.1% winning percentage. The “Board” team with the worst record in the
country is Marist at 1-28, winning 3.4% of the time.
In NCAA Football, Alabama and Boise State both finished undefeated at 14-0
(100%) while Eastern Michigan and Western Kentucky both finished 0-12 (0%).
Meanwhile, the 2009 baseball season was not that much different than any other
The New York Yankees had the best record in the majors last season at 103-59
(63.6%) and the Los Angeles Angels had the second best record at 97-65 (59.9%).
The two worst teams in the majors were the Washington Nationals at 59-103
(36.4%) and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 62-99 (38.5%). These records are nowhere
close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.
So there you have it:
NBA 77.0% 10.20%
MLB 63.6% 36.40%
My favorite day to play the NBA so I hope you guys don't mind a cameo appearance from me. Always plenty of day games on MLK Day and the markets are closed so here's what I am playing so far:
UNDER SAC/CHAR 196.5 (1.75 UNITS) - Charlotte has been playing good defense lately. 9 of their L13 have gone under this number. In Sacramento's L3, they have scored 88, 86 and 86 respectively. They have shot 36.4% from the floor in the L3. Only one day off since Sat's game and now an afternoon game. Unders were 11-1 last year on MLK Day. Let the tradition continue.
UNDER MILW/HOU 198 (2 UNITS) - Coach Rick Adelman came out publicly ripping his team for their recent defensive efforts. The Rockets have won nine straight at home against the Bucks, holding
Milwaukee to an average of 89.1 points and 41.4 percent shooting.
OVER PHILLY/MINN 205 (1.5 UNITS) - The Timberwolves have given up at least 100 points in 10 straight
games, including a 135-110 loss to Memphis on Friday night in one of
their poorest defensive performances of the season. 13 out of Minny's L18 have gone over this number.
CHICAGO PICK (1.5 UNITS)
UNDER CHI/GS 218.5 (1.5 UNITS)
The other night when Stephen Curry fouled out, the Warriors were left with only 4 players on their team to play so the referees had to implement a seldom used rule where Curry got to stay on the court after his 6th foul which meant that any additional fouls would be a technical foul on the Warriors. The Warriors are expected to have only 8 guys in uniform Monday and 3 are callups from the NBDL. Check out their injury list (I hope this formats correctly):