Gio Gonzalez - Tonights Giants lineup batting .170 against.
Ryan Vogelsong - Tonights Nationals lineup batting .322 against.
Vogelsong hasn't been the best pitcher this year, but he hasn't exactly been terrible either, especially at home.
In 16 starts at home Vogelsong has given up 4 or more runs 5 times in 16 starts. By comparison here are the numbers for Giants pitchers at home that have given up 4 or more runs at home this year....
Vogelsong - 16 starts/4 times 4 or more runs
Bumgarner - 16 starts/8 times 4 or more runs
Tim Hudson - 14 starts/5 times 4 or more runs
All of the games this series have gone under the total, while the pitchers have had these numbers at home during the regualr season. I'm more inclined to go with Vogelsong's postseason record... 24.2 innings having given up only 3 runs. 3-0 record while his team is 4-0. Postseason at home 2-0 14 innings and 2 runs.
With Gonzalez pitching well and Vogelsong having pitched well in the postseason, granted in 2012, the trend should continue... UNDER
Majority of people here are claiming that the public is all over the Dodgers and that's the reason the line is dropping....
Talk about trying to justify a Cardinals bet... This is a public forum on a betting website. If there was ever a place to get a public feel, it's here.
Don't get me wrong there are some good players here. But if everyone is claiming what the "public" is up to, where is the real "public"???
Man, people have short memories... Kershaw was the best player in baseball this year, but has ONE bad game and everyone looking to bury him.
Don't fool yourselves this line is going down becasue you're all taking the Cardinals.
The strike zone was wildly inconsistent last night and everyone knows it. That doesn't bode well for Shelby Miller who has walked 73 batters this season.
I'll wait an hour before the game to take the Dodgers while everyone pounds the Cardinals in the meantime....
Going to stay with Baltimore tonight for many of the same reasons as last night. Better record at home than Detroit is on the road, it's not even close.
Chen is a good pitcher, will probably give up some runs, but Detroit has nothing out of the bullpen. Too much for Verlander to carry. If Detroit wins they will need to score at least 7, and I don't see that happening.
It seems as though the majority of players are taking Detroit over Baltimore tonight. I also see a lot of people taking the over in this matchup.
But here are some interesting statistics concerning the second half of the season (since the All-Star break).
Detroit has a good road record of 45-36 during the season, but are only 17-20 on the road since the All-Star break. Compare that with Baltimore who has a home record of 50-31, but are 24-9 at home since the All-Star Break.
That difference is a 46% win rate on the road for Detroit, compared to a 73% win rate at home for Baltimore.
As for the runs, Detroit has scored 4.73 runs, and gave up 4.58 on the road since the break. Baltimore has posted much better numbers scoring an average of 5.09 runs, and giving up only 2.79.
There isn't any argument that these two teams on paper don't compare. The Tigers took 5 of 6 from Baltimore this season, but those games were played in April and May, and are hardly indicitive of their play right now.
Max Scherzer is certainly the more flashy pitcher with his strikeout ability and Cy Young Award. But his numbers compared to Chris Tillman in the second half of the season are almost identical. Tillman yields a 2.21 ERA at home since the break, which is consistent with his 2.54 ERA at home all season. Scherzer is somewhat the same, yielding a second half ERA on the road of 4.00, which is slightly higher than his 3.49 ERA on the road this year.
Both pitchers have been very good all season long, but the difference is the team playing behind them. Baltimore has been the better team all season on defense, and their bullpen is far better than Detroit's.
This game should be very close, but Baltimore should be able to take the first game. With Baltimore you get a better defensive team, better bullpen, and a better manager with home field advantage. The value with Baltimore is overwhelming.
BALTIMORE ML and UNDER
After taking Kansas State last night, I'm all over UCONN tonight.
UCONN will roll over USF tonight. There defense is much better than USF's and they return 10 starters from last year. Basically the same group the held USF to 228 yards last season.
As for concerns on the offense for UCONN, the defense the will face tonight is not even close to what they have faced this year in BYU and Boise State.
UCONN will win this game by at least 2 touchdowns.
I want you to take UCONN tonight, find me on here tomorrow, and then thank me for the early sleep you will be getting because this game will be over by halftime.