Posted Wednesday, September 14, 2016 10:18 PM
Posted Saturday, September 10, 2016 10:18 AM
Week 2 is always my favorite week in the NFL as we have one game's worth of information, but the large majority of the betting public is already set on how they think each team is going to play for the whole season. Lets look back at last season, week 1. Tennessee beats Tampa by a million, then travels to Cleveland and gets whipped. Tampa goes to New Orleans in week 2 and thumps the Saints. Chicago beats GB in week 1 and then gets absolutely hammered in week 2. The Bills beat the Colts in week 1, and everyone fell in love with Rex and the boys in week 2. That didn't turn out too well. The 49ers had that Monday night prime time slot and looked like they may be the darlings that the Vikings were supposed to be. The following week they get absolutely mauled by the Steelers. The Vikings went home in week 2, and beat up the Lions. I could go on and on, but lets get to the picks.
Carolina looked mediocre to average at best in Denver on Thursday night. Fact of the matter is, they ran into a lathered up buzzsaw and ran out of gas in the heat and altitude. Chip Kelly once again made ice cream out of horse poo and almost made the 49ers look respectable. Now the Niners travel across the country on a short week to face a pissed off defense and potent offense. I'll take the team with ten days of prep time. I see more of the same of last year for San Fransisco and the Niners getting completely blown out. Carolina -13.5.
Man, the Lions looked awesome last week. Going on the road and just doing whatever they want is a huge step in the right direction. What I think is interesting about the Lions/Colts game is that everyone is talking about how bad the Colts defense is, and not about how bad the Lions defense is. I'll take a defense and sound running game on the road in the NFL any day of the week. I will especially take it at +6. The Titans need to clean up all of the nonsense with hanging on to the ball. If they do so, they should be able to control the clock and make this game a war of attrition. I'll bite on the +210 as well.
The bright lights were on Carson Palmer on Sunday Night, and we got the usual deer-in-the-headlights routine. No Brady, no Gronk, no offensive line for the most part, and the Pats still roll. Clearly the Cardinals didn't respect their opponent, and they paid the price. Now they get a Tampa team that looked fairly unstoppable. No way I am backing a team on the 2nd week of a back to back roadie. The bright lights are off, so Carson Palmer can go back to throwing for 300 plus. I also see the Bucs having a tough time containing David Johnson. Winston will try to push the ball downfield again like last week, but the Cards secondary will keep him in check. Cards -6.5.
As a Broncos fan, this one is going to hurt. The Colts looked absolutely horrid on defense against the Lions. So now we have what appears to be a clash of the best defense in the league, versus the worst defense in the league. Seems like a no-brainer, right? For whatever reason, the Broncos do not play well against the Colts. Conspiracy theorists can probably point to Peyton Manning not wanting to destroy his old team, so maybe with the old man gone, we can finally smash the Colts. I think the Broncos will play it conservative here and just run the ball over and over again, as Kubiak wants to do. I don't like the fact the Broncos will try to grind this one out, instead of air it out on that God-Awful secondary. I will plug my nose and take the +6.
It looks like the New York Giants now have a defense. They were able to shut down a ton of bubble screens on Sunday. Now they face a QB who undoubtedly will sling it up and down the field. I cannot back this Saints team whatsoever, but I can absolutely slam the over in this game. Look for a repeat of last year when the first one to 50 one the game. Over 52.5. Biggest bet of the weekend.
Pass on the Bills, Dolphins and Rams as I cannot stomach taking any of those three, even though I think the worst I would do is 2-1 with that threesome
Posted Wednesday, August 31, 2016 01:49 PM
Week 2 is always my favorite week of college and NFL football due to the over-reactions of what was seen in Week 1. Colorado State could not have looked worse, and on national TV no less. I will go ahead and take advantage of the public perception that this team is just straight dog crap. Bobo announced earlier in the week that Faton Bauta is going to start, which he should have done against Colorado. I like the running ability that he brings to the QB position. Teams have to play disciplined defense now with a running QB at the helm. Much less risk of crucial turnover with Stevens not in the lineup.
UTSA is going to bring a drastically different offensive approach to this game than what the Rams saw last week. This should play into the hands of the Rams. CSU cannot handle any type of offense that plays with pace. Now, they will be facing a pro-style offense, with much lesser talent than what they saw last week. CSU's secondary got absolutely man-handled last week, but this week, the talent level is much more in CSU's favor.
I look for this game to be a fairly even game for the first half, and then CSU pushing UTSA around in the second half. Early games in altitude always favor the home team, expecially when the talent is fairly comprable.
Look for heavy doses of the CSU run game early and often, with Bauta able to run and throw the ball to keep drives alive. Warm enough in Ft. Collins on Saturday to assist in the fatigue of the Roadrunners. CSU bounces back with strong efforts on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Special teams edge to CSU as well.
Washington State + 11.5 – Boise lacks a run game. If they just air it out, they should be able to outscore Wazzu, but I think they try to establish the run early, which should be unsuccessful. Once they take to the air, this becomes a video game. Boise with the win, but a close one.
Wyoming +24.5 – One team I will over-react on from week 1 is Wyoming. They have a lot of nice pieces in place, specifically at QB and RB. Nebraska should roll over UW, but not to the tune of over 24 points.
Purdue money line +200 – Any time I can fade Tuberville, I do it. This guy loses more games that he should win by 20+ than anyone I know. Hazell finally has competence at his QB position, which should be able to keep the Boilers in this until the end. What they do in crunch time is a whole other story, but with fairly equal talent on both sides of the ball, I will call for the home dog to pull it out.
Posted Saturday, June 18, 2016 05:03 PM
I mis-hit this one right off the tee over the summer by thinking the Rams were not going to start Nick Stevens in this game. Everything is pointing to a Nick Stevens start, and I am stuck with a Colorado State +9 ticket from earlier in the summer.
One of the main perspectives on the Colorado/Colorado State game is that both teams "suck," and since it is a rivalry game, it is best just to take the dog and most likely cash the ticket. This year, you can throw that strategy out the window. Both teams are still unimpressive, but for the first time in I don't know how long, there is a clear difference in talent level. This will easily be the worst Colorado State team that they have had in the last five years, and this will clearly be the best CU team that they have had in five years.
The word I am getting out of CSU is that Nick Stevens will start at QB. That right there tells me all I need to know about which side I want to be on. I hate being on the wrong side of the turnover margin, and backing Colorado State, and a QB who has a knack for turning the ball over at the worst possible time, isn't in my bankroll's best interest.
One of the largest concerns for me if I am backing CSU is how are they going to move the ball. The loss of Higgins at WR is going to be huge. But the losses that I think hurt more are the losses of Joe Hansley and Kivon Cartwright. Both were never spectacular, but they always seemed to be in the right place at the right time. When it was third and seven, they were the ones that Stevens sought out. Now, Colorado State is replacing its top four receivers from last year, and this screams one-dimensional offense. On the bright side, CSU is strong at running back, but in this game, I give the edge to the Colorado D-Line over the CSU O-line. I look for the Rams to have a tough time moving the ball and sustaining drives.
On the opposite side, I think CU is going to have its most efficient offense since the Gary Barnett era. For once, CU should be able to pound the ball, as they are loaded at running back. They should be able to rotate in at least three solid running backs, all of which are physical. What I am even more high on with the Buffs though, is the passing game. If Shay Fields can stay healthy, I think he is one of the best receivers in the Pac 12. More importantly, there is no one in the CSU secondary that can cover him. Additionally, if you have seen enough of these CSU/CU games, you know that the Rams are great at completely leaving the best receiver for CU wide open on multiple occasions. When Paul Richardson was still with the Buffs, he went uncovered twice in one game.
Colorado's O-Line is going to take a major step forward this year. I look for a ton of the rushing yards in this game to come from Colorado running behind Jeromy Irwin on the left side (it sounds like he is good to go after an ACL last year). There will be a significant size advantage for the Buffs on the left side of the line, and they will exploit it.
Even in missing the -7.5 that was dangled out there for a bit, I am confident that I have a strategy to cover my bases. I feel that even if this game is close going into the 4th quarter, Nick Stevens will revert back to his usual ways and toss a slant pass right into triple coverage. The Buffs are too big up front, Sefo Liufau appears to be healthy, and most importantly, hungry, and CU should be able to roll in this game.
7 point teaser - CU -1.5/Stanford -7.5/Indiana/FIU over 54/Fresno over 55.
Straight bet FIU moneyline +285, Stanford -14.5.
KSU's offensive pace will play right into Stanford's hands. This one looks like the Stanford/Iowa game all over again.
Posted Saturday, June 18, 2016 03:31 PM
Looks like he is getting it dialed in, and we know Dustin Johnson can't hold a lead in the latter rounds.
These are not the two most potent offenses today, but the pitchers in this match up make me feel comfortable with a little more unconventional wager.
Angels/A's 12 runs or more +250
Doubtful to me that Timmy makes it more than five innings today. Even if he is on with his 90 MPH fastball, a guy coming off of hip surgery isn't going to go long innings.
Triggs looks like he should be more than capable of giving up a handful of runs, and also shouldn't get much past the 5th inning.
I've got one pitcher fresh off hip surgery, and one with a sky high WHIP.
I'll need some average/below average offenses to get to it, but I think this wager has a nice shot of hitting.