Shoulda, coulda, woulda. That is how I would sum up CU last season. As terrible as this team was, last year the Buffs had UCLA, Oregon State and Utah on the ropes, and found a way to choke the game away. The defense just could not find a way to get a stop.
Enter Jim Leavitt. I have sat in on multiple CU practices this summer, and the guy has been dominate in practices. I find it hard to believe that Macintyre is even the head coach. Leavitt runs the show, and most importantly he has made the point a couple of times that he will put the defense in the correct position to succeed. So far so good. I like the experience returning, and more importantly, I like the man in charge of the defense. Colorado will still get gashed by the likes of Oregon and USC, but a lot of the middle tier PAC 12 teams need to be on high alert.
The next thing that has stood out to me about this CU team is speed. I cannot remember the last year where I was able to say that I wasn't faster than half the team. CU's receiving corps is full of speedsters. I am really looking forward to this match up with Hawaii, because I see plenty of opportunity for the long ball. CUs O-line is much bigger, and most importantly much stronger than they have been in the past. I am looking for the Buffs O-line to push Hawaii all over the field. Not only will this give Sefo plenty of time to sit in the pocket and air it out, but I believe we are going to see a huge night for the CU running game.
Christian Powell should get the bulk of the carries, and once he gets a head of steam going, there is no one on the Hawaii defense that is going to slow him down.
Once the CU running game gets going, Hawaii is going to have to stack the box. Once the box is stacked, Shay Fields and Nelson Spruce are going to have a field day. Shay Fields is the fastest wideout I've seen at CU since Paul Richardson.
When I look over Hawaii, I see a huge stroke of luck in Max Wittek. He is an enormous upgrade. The problem for the Hawaii passing game is that CU is going to have a relentless blitz coming all game. CUs secondary is actually going to be a strength this season, not a liability. I am looking for at least two INTs from this group of ball hawks.
It has been nice and hot here in Colorado for the last couple of weeks, so the heat/humidity will not be a factor in wearing down Colorado.
Colorado will not come up with enough wins to get to a bowl this season, but this is shaping up to be the first season where they actually look like a PAC 12 team. Again, I cannot stress enough how much quicker this team is.
This should be a game where the Buffs take control from the start, and never let off the gas.
I will wait a little closer to kick off to see what the wind does, but if this is a game played with little to no wind, I will be large on the over. I like Colorado to score early and often. This team isn't used to winning, so I can see the points continue even when the game is comfortable in hand.
NC State -25.5, Baylor -34.5 and Kentucky -15.5 straight and parlayed.
With a new baby boy in the house, and a job that keeps me away at least 50 hours a week, I am going to have to pick my spots quite carefully this season, and I believe this thread will be the easiest and most low maintenance way to make a profit. Each week I will be taking the WKU over, and I will be getting it right as it comes out. I will not wait for better numbers, and I will not flinch if they go into the 80s. This team is explosive on offense, and atrocious on defense. That previous sentence will be the basis of all of my capping on these totals. In my opinion, this is a recipe for overs covering in the 3rd quarter left and right. My goal for this thread will be conservative (+$500.00), but incredibly attainable.
Week 1 - @Vandy - Over 65 $110.00 to win $100.00
Here's to a profitable season.
Iowa: I think tonight is the night for Suarez. 6/1 and Chase Eliott 6/1. Erik Jones has to start in the back, so I will see if his odds move once everyone figures that out. I'm guessing the 54 and 22 will be in the mix, but I like Suarez a ton tonight.
Pocono: Grabbed Truex and Kurt early at 7/1 apiece, so it looks like I might have bought a little low. Adding the 22 once the odds are up, and most likely will have to unload on the 4.
Looking to bounce back from a bad week last week. Hard to remember the last week where I was pretty much out of the running from the start.
Always one of my favorite races to watch.
Austin Dillon 3/1 - Think he wins this thing fairly handily.
Erik Jones 7.5/1 - Can't remember the last time I actually got good odds on this guy in a truck race. Think he can be competitive, and maybe pull off the win.
One Indy pick so far for Sunday - Jimmie 7/1 - That number is way too high for a guy who always gets around this place well. I think this particular package is going to favor Hendrick and Stewart-Haas in a big way. You can increase the drag all you want, but the cars with the most power under the hood should dominate this thing. Cars may be closer together, but the 4 and 48 should be the class of the field. Only thing that concerns me will be the strategists doing things out of sequence and possibly pulling one off.
Xfinity cars are also using some sort of drag package this weekend as well. Probably going to have to see what happens in all of the practices to see what comes of this new setup.
Kyle +225, Brad +250 - Same drill as last week. Not much profit to be made, but there is opportunity nonetheless. I don't see how one of these two doesn't win.
18 - 10/1 - This has to be the last week at double digits. He said it himself, the way to get into the Chase is to lead the most laps and win. Extra seat time in the Xfinity race is always a plus at a track like this.
41 - 10/1 - Back to the regular rules package, and Kurt has easily been one of the top two or three cars on a weekly basis. Like Kurt on the short tracks as well.
11 - 12/1 - Another guy in the Xfinity race with the ability to get around the short tracks.
19 - 20/1 - Pretty sure I wasted my money on this one, but I can see him pull something out of his backside.
2 and 22 should be strong, but I think the four I took will have much lower odds on Sunday morning. 15 and 42 to finish top 3 may be worth a look as well.