Last weekend was solid with a three team underdog moneyline parlay hit in the NFL, and then hitting Kenseth in the race that afternoon. Thought I would take some of the winnings and unload on Kenseth to win the title. When it comes to the races left, these 1.5 milers are going to favor the 20 team. No reason to think Kenseth doesn't win either Kansas or Charlotte to get to the next round. Being strong at Talladega doesn't hurt either.
No reason to think Kenseth can't win Texas, and by then, it should really be down to the 20, 22, 48 and 11. I can't see him losing to any of those drivers at Homestead.
One huge wrinkle could be if the 4 wins this weekend. I am really thinking of adding the 4 for $100 and taking my chances. I think there are so many teams thinking that they can't let the 4 win this weekend that we see some serious strategy on the final run of the race. Everybody knows keeping the 4 out of victory lane this weekend guarantees a much easier path to the cup. I think the 20 team benefits the most from the 4 being knocked out.
Kenseth to win the Cup $250.00 to win $1,250.00
The Super Bowl has arrived for 'ol GreedyB. This is by far my favorite game to cap because I get to see a lot of these two teams both in games and practices. Being able to get a behind the scenes look at both teams usually plays out well when it comes to covering the spread.
In my opinion, this is going to be a one-sided affair, and it will go in favor of the Rams.
On the surface, this pick seems like a slam dunk, and I think it will be, but it'll take awhile for the Rams to take it to the Buffs.
For starters, I am going to rule out Rashard Higgins. High ankle sprains take too long to heal, and CSU will either play him, and he won't be effective, or they will do the wise thing, and sit him until conference play begins.
Next, Colorado State is going to rotate QBs. I usually hate this, and for this reason, I think CSU struggles early. However, I really think that Coleman Key will be the one that finishes the job for the Rams. He is a big kid with a huge arm. He is lacking in accuracy for the time being, but he is by far the most confident of the two QBs. Stevens is talented, but he misses way too many wide open passes.
Finally, there may still be a bit of a hangover for the Rams after last weekends ending with Minnesota. CSU lead the game for 40:40 and was pretty much in charge the whole game. Unfortunately they completely pissed down their leg when the stakes were highest. That was a physical game, and it took a toll, so again I am of the belief that CSU will be a bit lethargic at the start.
Once the fog wears off, the Rams will take control in the trenches. With the inability of the QBs, the Rams are going to have a huge dose of Dawkins, Jarrells and Oden. I was stunned at how nasty CSU's O-line was against Minnesota. There were times when they flat out pushed the Gophers around. The physicality on both sides of the ball will be in Colorado State's favor.
On defense, Colorado State should win the battle up front. A season ending injury to CU's starting left tackle will mean another new face on the line, and CSU should be able to exploit this weakness. One of the big problems for CU is Sefo's inability to throw deep. He averaged ten years a pass last weekend against a secondary that looked lost at times. He wasn't missing his passes by just a little bit, he was missing badly. One of the best ways to beat the Rams is to run, run and throw over the top. When you can't throw over the top with accuracy, CSU just brings the house to stop the run, puts you in third and long, and lets you throw underneath. Right now, CU's offense plays right into CSU's hands.
The only advantage CU has is a ton of speed at WR, and they won't be able to utilize it due to their QB being inaccurate.
CSU has the advantage on the offensive and defensive lines, in the secondary, at LB, and definitely in special teams. If CU has to punt often, expect a few more of those 30 yarders that are becoming the norm.
The play: Colorado State moneyline +140.
For those of you live bettors, this game could be quite lucrative. If CU can get a score early, the live moneyline on the Rams should be worthwhile. CSU will wear CU out in the trenches.
Xfinity - Denny 5/1, Joey 4/1.
Cup - Denny 7.5/1 and Brad 9/1 - Same rules package as Kentucky, but more importantly, a track that just chews up tires. I think I have two of the best at saving their stuff. Thinking the 20 may be another solid pick. Wanted to get these two in prior to qualifying.
Shoulda, coulda, woulda. That is how I would sum up CU last season. As terrible as this team was, last year the Buffs had UCLA, Oregon State and Utah on the ropes, and found a way to choke the game away. The defense just could not find a way to get a stop.
Enter Jim Leavitt. I have sat in on multiple CU practices this summer, and the guy has been dominate in practices. I find it hard to believe that Macintyre is even the head coach. Leavitt runs the show, and most importantly he has made the point a couple of times that he will put the defense in the correct position to succeed. So far so good. I like the experience returning, and more importantly, I like the man in charge of the defense. Colorado will still get gashed by the likes of Oregon and USC, but a lot of the middle tier PAC 12 teams need to be on high alert.
The next thing that has stood out to me about this CU team is speed. I cannot remember the last year where I was able to say that I wasn't faster than half the team. CU's receiving corps is full of speedsters. I am really looking forward to this match up with Hawaii, because I see plenty of opportunity for the long ball. CUs O-line is much bigger, and most importantly much stronger than they have been in the past. I am looking for the Buffs O-line to push Hawaii all over the field. Not only will this give Sefo plenty of time to sit in the pocket and air it out, but I believe we are going to see a huge night for the CU running game.
Christian Powell should get the bulk of the carries, and once he gets a head of steam going, there is no one on the Hawaii defense that is going to slow him down.
Once the CU running game gets going, Hawaii is going to have to stack the box. Once the box is stacked, Shay Fields and Nelson Spruce are going to have a field day. Shay Fields is the fastest wideout I've seen at CU since Paul Richardson.
When I look over Hawaii, I see a huge stroke of luck in Max Wittek. He is an enormous upgrade. The problem for the Hawaii passing game is that CU is going to have a relentless blitz coming all game. CUs secondary is actually going to be a strength this season, not a liability. I am looking for at least two INTs from this group of ball hawks.
It has been nice and hot here in Colorado for the last couple of weeks, so the heat/humidity will not be a factor in wearing down Colorado.
Colorado will not come up with enough wins to get to a bowl this season, but this is shaping up to be the first season where they actually look like a PAC 12 team. Again, I cannot stress enough how much quicker this team is.
This should be a game where the Buffs take control from the start, and never let off the gas.
I will wait a little closer to kick off to see what the wind does, but if this is a game played with little to no wind, I will be large on the over. I like Colorado to score early and often. This team isn't used to winning, so I can see the points continue even when the game is comfortable in hand.
NC State -25.5, Baylor -34.5 and Kentucky -15.5 straight and parlayed.
With a new baby boy in the house, and a job that keeps me away at least 50 hours a week, I am going to have to pick my spots quite carefully this season, and I believe this thread will be the easiest and most low maintenance way to make a profit. Each week I will be taking the WKU over, and I will be getting it right as it comes out. I will not wait for better numbers, and I will not flinch if they go into the 80s. This team is explosive on offense, and atrocious on defense. That previous sentence will be the basis of all of my capping on these totals. In my opinion, this is a recipe for overs covering in the 3rd quarter left and right. My goal for this thread will be conservative (+$500.00), but incredibly attainable.
Week 1 - @Vandy - Over 65 $110.00 to win $100.00
Here's to a profitable season.