Posted Thursday, September 25, 2014 10:13 PM
Posted Friday, September 19, 2014 09:17 PM
Another solid week last week to bring the total to 27-10-1 for the year. Two more underdogs on the money line with Rutgers and Iowa coming through. This week I am way behind on the line moves, so my absolute must play of Boston College will move to no action. Plenty of good money to be made this week though.
New Mexico moneyline +175 – Defense will be optional, I’ll take the home conference dog.
Penn State -10 – Still not understanding why these Penn State lines are so low. They have a stout defense, and Hackenberg is a solid game manager. Not to worry though, I will keep collecting on the Lions. I really think this team has a solid chance to be undefeated heading into the MSU game.
Cal -14 – Colorado has to be one of the worst road teams in the nation. Jared Goff should be able to pick apart the Colorado defense, and I don’t see CU being able to keep up on the offensive end.
Washington +7.5 – The last couple of years, this game has been a slugfest. This year should be no different. Wanted to take the moneyline, but not certain the Huskies can close the deal.
UTSA -6 – UTSA will control the game with their defense, and their offense should be able to march up and down against the Owls.
Notre Dame – 10 – Too much talent for the Irish in this one. 31-10 Irish.
Nebraska /Illinois Over 65.5 – Another defense optional game.
Posted Friday, September 12, 2014 11:48 PM
22-8 YTD and had another solid week last week with the Iowa State money line coming in. Underdogs have been solid so far, but there are a couple of favorites that I like this week.
Penn State -26.5 – Don’t see UMass scoring more than a field goal in this one.
Michigan -3.5 – Not getting all the love for Utah. Clobbering Fresno will end up meaning nothing this year since everyone will be doing it.
Colorado -9 – Altitude and warm weather will wear down Hawaii. Think the Buffs pull away in the 2nd half. Also like the over in this game as the Buffs will be pushing the pace. Line is down to 60, and I am hoping to get a better number closer to kickoff
East Carolina -2.5 - I'll continue to ride the Pirates gravy train. Solid offense that NC will not be able to stop.
Rutgers moneyline +200 - I like this Rutgers team. I think Ralph Friedgen will continue to get the offense going in the right direction, and this defense should be good enough to hold up.
Iowa moneyline +230 – Just a hunch, but I think the Hawks will keep this one tight.
Posted Wednesday, September 03, 2014 12:51 PM
16-5 through the first two weeks, with a 5-2 week 2, and another nice moneyline hit on Northern Illinois. I saw a ton of games that I liked, but I narrowed it down to the following:
Iowa State +12 – I don’t think the Iowa model of offense is going to work. Two QB’s and running backs rotating, won’t allow an offense to flow. No consistency, and lack of speed at any position on offense, will be the downfall of the Hawkeyes. Might be time to replace the coach as well.
The Cyclones stunned me with the effort that they put in versus KSU. At times, they actually looked like they had some talent. I think the speed on offense should be enough to keep them in the game. If the Cyclones limit the mistakes, I think they take this one.
Iowa State money line +330
East Carolina +10 – Looking for a bit of a letdown from Va. Tech. I think facing an uptempo, spread offense when you are in a possible letdown spot is a recipe for disaster.
Central Michigan Money line +170
South Carolina +7 – Wanted to take the moneyline, but I’ll take the home dog with the points. I think Texas A & M and East Carolina are bad matchups for most of the country, so I am not sold on SC being as bad as they look. Georgia would be best off playing uptempo, but I think this game turns into a grinder in the trenches. Won’t be shocked if SC pulls out the win.
NMSU/UTEP under 57
Nebraska/Fresno over 62
Posted Saturday, August 09, 2014 02:37 PM
Solid Week 1 with an 11-3 record, and a couple of nice underdog moneyline wins with Temple, Rutgers and Colorado State getting it done. Week 2 is the toughest weekend to cap in my opinion because it is easy to label a team based off of the one week of action. There are teams that are not as good as they looked, and there are teams that are not as bad as they looked. I think for this week, I have found the team that is as bad as it looked, and the team that is as good as it looked.
Iowa State once again appears to be a bad team, and this upcoming matchup with Kansas State is a really bad one for the Cyclones. It appears that the weakness of the Clones is their run defense. Now they have KSU coming in, fresh off of 51 rush attempts in their last game. What also intrigues me about Kansas State is the fact that they actually put up a ton of pass attempts last week. This is almost becoming a balanced offense. I think with this newfound "balance," KSU will get their standard four and five yard rushes, but they will break this game wide open with their passing attack. Tyler Lockett was too quiet last week. I think this week he gets behind the ISU secondary a couple of times with the play action attack.
Once KSU gets into the lead, I see no way that ISU can get back into this one. Sam Richardson just can’t move the ball down the field consistently. If you subtract the 48 yard pass to Lazard, Richardson had 19 completions for 103 yards. A five yard passing average is not going to get points on the board. Not to mention the fact that he is more than capable of tossing a few interceptions at crucial times. With Richardson not being feared, I think we will see KSU load the box and completely shut down the run. I am comfortable in saying that this should be exactly like the NDSU game was last week. ISU will just not be able to hold up to KSU and its balance, and the Wildcats leave with a 20 point win.
Auburn is on deck for KSU, but I think this is one scenario where having old man Snider as the coach will be huge. I think he makes it clear that the Auburn game becomes meaningless if they lose this one on Saturday.
One of my favorite scenarios on display with the Rams and Buffaloes in week 1. CSU got the extra practice time after the season with their bowl appearance in December. Not only that, but they pulled off a miracle which only boosts the confidence. CU on the other hand, had yet another dismal season, and the move to the Pac-12 is looking worse and worse by the season. Although the Rams are losing a ton on the O-Line, I think they bring in enough talent on that line to offset some of the losses. The return of Garrett Grayson, Kivon Cartwright, and Rashard Higgins should help the offense through the air, and the addition of Dee Hart at Running Back is huge for CSU. He brings a big, nasty presence to the Rams running game, and I think it will help CSU keep control of the ball. He isn't technically the starter, but I think he ends up as the number 1 when all is said and done.
Even though the Rams are losing talent up front on defense also, they are not losing the leadership of Max Morgan. He keys the defense, and if healthy, he will help the Rams D keep some of these lower octane offenses from running up big numbers. The linebackers and the secondary are experienced, and they should be much improved from last year.
On the CU side of things, the one threat that always scared me to death in these CU/CSU games is now gone. Paul Richardson absolutely torched the Rams with his speed, and it didn’t hurt that the Rams seemed to lose track of him on multiple occasions. When your best offensive weapon goes from Paul Richardson to Nelson Spruce, you have some problems.
Mike MacIntyre is most likely going to get this CU team to at least a .500 level at some point, but this is still a terrible football team. There are too many edges for the Rams that lead me to believe they walk away with this one.
Taking the Rams +3, and will hammer the Moneyline when it comes out.
Good luck on the season folks!