My record for this season:
Straight bets: 3-0 ATS
2 team 6 point teaser: 0-2 ATS
(From a different internet forum)
-3.5 if you got the line earlier this week.
1. The Redskins are missing key players from injuries.
Their best running back Tim Hightower is not playing.
Their best wide receiver Santana Moss is not playing.
2. The 49ers best pass rushing line against the Redskins poor offensive
line, John Beck was sacked 9 times last week against the Bills.
49ers pass rushers this season: Aldon Smith 6.5 sacks, Justin Smith 4.5
sacks, Ahmad Brooks 4.0 sacks.
3. 49ers have a 6-0 ATS record while the Redskins have a 3-4 ATS record.
The 49ers are on a 5-0 winning streak, the Redskins are on a 0-3 losing
streak.
4. The Redskins have a QB problem between Rex Grossman 55.76% Comp / 6
TD / 9 INT and John Beck 58.82% Comp / 1 TD / 3 INT.
49ers have the better QB in Alex Smith 63.19% Comp / 9 TD / 2 INT.
5. Even though Redskins have home advantage. The grass outdoor stadium
of the Redskins is the same as the grass outdoor stadium of the 49ers.
This is my 3rd season capping. Since I'm average at ATS, I'll make SU
plays.
My own important rules for gambling:
#1. Money management / Bankroll management is extremely important. Use a
money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a
limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% to 10% of
your bankroll for each bet.
#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because
it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the
right opportunity.
#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try
to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You
should have an account in multiple books.
#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not
making profit off of the casinos and line makers. That's why they adjust
the lines and value accordingly.
#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place
for emotions in this profession.
#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.
#7. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the
outcome of a game.
Here are betting styles I took from someone on the internet:
1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is
more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings
and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.
2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a
player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are
sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's
when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.
3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or
passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?
4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching
advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %,
are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...
I am sure the Steelers will defeat the Ravens. Joe Flacco has not
defeated Big Ben at center for the Steelers in the past 3 seasons. Not
only that, the Ravens traded Todd Heap TE and Derrick Mason WR, the
Steelers have more weapons than the Ravens.
The Cardinals defense is very strong, the defense stopped and defeated
the Saints and Broncos last season. With Cam Newton at center for the
Panthers with no OTAs because of the lock out. The Panthers offense will
stuggle.
The divisional rivalry between the Patriots and Dolphins, the away team
wins most of the time. The Patriots dominated the Dolphins with Chad
Henne at center for the Dolphins last season. The Patriots will defeat
the Dolphins.
The Broncos have not lost an opening game for 14 seasons. I am not sure
if I should play this or not. The Broncos needs a solid run defense
against Raider's Darren McFadden or the Raiders will dominate them
again.
Week 1 plays:
Pittsburgh ML (1 unit to win 2.1 unit) +110
Arizona ML (1 unit to win 1.3 unit) -330
New England ML (1 unit)
Denver ML (1 unit)
2011 YTD record: 0-0 (0 units)
This is something I saw on ESPN.
This is a better system than the old passer rating because QBR adds the real life game factors to the QB.
A scale from 0 to 100. 100 being the best, 0 being the worst.
Top 10 Quarterbacks based on this new rating.
1. Tom Brady 76.0
2. Peyton Manning 69.5
3. Matt Ryan 68.6
4. Aaron Rodgers 67.9
5. Michael Vick 66.6
6. Drew Brees 65.9
7. Eli Manning 64.3
8. Josh Freeman 63.5
9. Phillip Rivers 63.2
10. Ben Roethlisberger 59.8
Michael Vick had the perfect game @ the Redskins in the 2010 season. 99.8 QBR rating.
Since the NFL has money problems. Why not air classic showing of the NFL, one episode a week from March to August on networks like CBS, NBC and FOX? This should help increase revenue.
Games like the Patriots vs the Giants super bowl game or the recent amazing comeback with the Eagles vs the Giants?
They should air the best of Monday night football, the 2003 Colts vs Bucs game or the 1994 Chiefs vs Broncos, Elway vs Montana for example.