Florida Gators -4
The lost art of basketball and non-conference play……….
What in tarnations is going on here? We are in the thick of conference play in the NCAA basketball schedule and you are now provided a nice Non-conference game for your enjoyment as Ohio’s own Xavier Muskateers take on a once but not recently power house of a basketball program Florida Gators. The whole recent history as to why this game is being played is documented throughout the internet and sports pages as an effort to “beef up” the Gators strength of schedule due to recent poor showings of SEC teams in the end of year tourney……that said, let’s get it on!
Xavier comes into this game having won 8 of their last 10 games by an average of 9.5 PPG and is tied for 1st place in the A-10 along with Cincinnati and Richmond. They’re averaging 71.7 PPG away from home while sporting a 3-5 record away from the confines of the Cintas Center. This is a drastic difference from their 86.5 PPG that they dish out as the host of ball games. What is also a bit unnerving for the Musketeers is their road defense which is allowing teams that normally shoot the ball at 43% FGP to shoot it at 46% and score 74.5 PPG when normally scoring 70 PPG. This obviously is an advantage the Gators will take advantage of.
Xavier has some ballers on their team….Jordan Crawford, Terrell Holloway and Jason Love are all averaging over 10 PPG (Crawford just about 20 PPG). They have the tools and can use them but are having a difficult time winning on the road against good defensive teams. Their away losses include last week’s pummeling from Dayton (90-65) and losses to Temple, Wake Forest, Butler, Kansas St, and neutral games against Baylor and Marquette. Of these games, the Temple and Dayton were conference games. So where am I going with this? Xavier, while a good team at home and in A-10 play for the most part, is an average Joe while traveling. They have a rookie coach in Chris Mack who so far is reaping the benefits of having most of last year’s Sweet 16 team return to play under him this year. Overall, Xavier is a well put together team but has issues on the road…….
Brown University Bears -6.5
Here we have a matchup of some really bad teams, I mean bottom-dwellers here. And when I say bad, I mean really bad. More so on Dartmouth’s part. How bad can a team really be, well for one, Dartmouth is college basketball’s second lowest scoring team at 51.7 points per game. They are also last in NCAAB in shooting efficiency, 3rd from last in effective field goal percentage. They can’t shoot the damn ball to save their own lives. I mean, come on, you are a DIV-I college basketball team, have some pride. There isn’t a player on the team that is averaging anything higher than 8 point per game and the team as a whole is getting outscored by their opponents by 13 PPG, and this jumps to 21 PPG on the road. Their go to guy (he who has taken the most shots) David Ruffel has a Field Goal Percentage of 36.8%, they lack any sort of motivation to win and above all else, are called “The Big Green”. The big green what?
Now Brown isn’t that great of a team either and is probably looking forward to playing Dartmouth today. Brown is coming off 5 straight losses, the last 2 on the road, and are returning home to play a team they know they can beat. They actually have an offensive weapon in Senior Forward Matt Mullary who is averaging 15 PPG while shooting 55% from the floor.
Again, coming home after two road losses in a row is a benefit while losing two at home then playing on the road (Dartmouth), is not the greatest of places to find yourself, even if you are a Big Green.
There isn’t really too much to say about these teams other than that they don’t score too much and that Brown is still better than someone in the conference. The 6.5 points that Dartmouth are getting are a gift from someone. Not nearly enough though as I believe this game is won by Brown by double digits. Brown actually has the ability to score if they were prompted to and Dartmouth is just plain ‘old bad, not Michael Jackson bad, but Carl Lewis singing the National Anthem bad.
Dartmouth College’s motto is “The voice of one crying in the wilderness”………
Yeh, we hear you…
Good Luck My Friends……
Stay Warm.
Florida Atlantic University Owls -2
The wonderful Sun Belt Conference pits together two of its better teams tonight in Boca Raton, FL as the Florida Atlantic University Owls take on the Louisiana Lafayette Rajun Cajuns. LA Lafayette comes in having won their last 3 games (albeit against the 9,10 and 11th placed teams in the conference) while the “Dirty Birds” are coming off a 2 game road trip where they dropped both to good squads in Denver and North Texas.
Already I’m liking FAU’s chances here as there are great “bennys” in coming home and playing after being away on the road; one being that your fans have had nothing to root for while you were gone and they’re looking forward to getting back into the “supporting our team” phase of their college lives. FAU has a decent fan base at home coming in at #122 for home court advantage power rating.
FAU is sporting an 8-2 SU record at home (4-3 ATS (3 un-lined games in which they won by an average of 14 points)) And, they have outscored their opponents by 9 at the FAU Arena. On the other side, LA Lafayette isn’t too good on the road as they are 3-8 SU on the road (3-4 ATS)(they’ve played 4 road games in un-lines games, losing 1 of them to McNeese St.), and have been outscored on the road by 4.6 points per game.
In the last 10 games, FAU is 7-3 ATS while LA Lafayette is 6-3 with a push. Not a significant difference here until you look at it this way….LA Lafayette played 6 of these 10 games at home going 5-1 ATS, while the other 4 on the road were all losses and a push. They were favored in all of these home games and were dogs in 3 of the 4 road games. FAU in their last 10 played 5 at home going 4-1 and 5 on the road going 3-2. They were favored in only 3 of these 10 games. (all home games).
Statistically, when comparing home stats to road stats (which is how I do it), FAU is the much better team offensively (PPG, Offensive Rebounds&%, turnover %, effective field goal %, assist/turnover ratio & assist to FGM; While defensively, LA Lafayette is slightly better (opponents PPG, opponents shooting efficiency & effective field goal %.
FAU is the better rebounding team on both ends of the court.
**I actually took the time to compare both teams road stats together and FAU was actually just a little off in most stats and lead in some.**
Indiana +10
I know what your thinking. “He’s has to be taking this pick because Indiana held off a Purdue team at home last week”. Trust me my friend, that is only a small part of it. What we have on hand is a beautiful and classic example of a two-faced team. That being “The” Ohio State University Men’s basketball team.
When comparing “the” road numbers of “The” Buckeyes to “the” home numbers of “the” Hoosiers, my numbers actually have Indiana coming out on top by 10 points. I know this sounds ridiculous considering how not really good “the” Hoosiers have been this year. (9-13) (3-7), but, “The” Ohio St. program, while dominant at home, has been a little lackluster on “the” road this year. At home they’re averaging 80.5 PPG, but when they leave the confines of the Value City Arena they are only averaging 64.9 PPG. They have this sickness on the defensive side as well, at home they are allowing 55 PPG and a whopping +14 (69 PPG) on the road.
It’s like these guys need to hire a new equipment guy or something,
Jimmy, the equipment guy is going over the inventory for Ohio St.’s upcoming road game against team X, his buddy Phil has got the gear and is calling off the items before stowing them on the bus……
“Uniforms?”,
“Check!”
“Sneakers?”
“Check!”
“Copenhagen?”
“Got it!”
“Defense?”…….pause for effect, “Defense?, what the hell Phil, where’d it go?”
“I don’t know, I thought I had it around here somewhere…..”,……”<explicative>”
“Screw it Phil, we don’t need it..on with it”
“Offense?”…………”Screw it, we don’t get paid enough for this crap…..”
IA syndrome…(Irrational Analysis)
What is this you might ask? Well, it’s basically over-looking small details in the pursuit of an answer that you want. Irrational analysis. This pertains to capping a sporting event in a dangerous and sometimes unavoidable manner.
What happens is you may see an event, a line or an enticing number out there that looks really good to you and you will begin your research. In the back of your mind you already have this pick “locked” and you are now looking for details to support your un-persuaded pick. What will happen in your pursuit of self support is that you will overlook small or even large details that do not support you “lock” and may even totally disregard an item that any other person would “for sure” catch and reconsider. The end is result most times is exactly what you looked over or did not consider. Sometimes Lady Luck has a hand in it, but there is nothing you can do about her…..
I have been a victim of this myself in the past but have learned to check all aspects of a game in as much detail as I know how and to play the devil’s advocate to myself. A “no-bet” decision is as fruitful as a “bet” decision in my book. Many of you in the forum I know are very good cappers and probably have experienced this before, but for those who are new to the field, beware.
Remembering that there is no such thing as a sure bet and knowing that if you lay-off a bet, even for the smallest stat or detail; you may not win any money, but you sure won’t lose any. That, in essence, is a sure bet. Sort of like abstinence…..
Have fun with your capping, do it well, and make money my friends……