Posted Sunday, October 17, 2010 12:08 PMWe'll let last week die it's ugly death and just move on.
This week has some interest for me, especially with some odd lines floating around.
Oakland +220 - 2 units
Yes, I know, two units on the Raiders?!? Really? Yes. San Fran is not what they were last year, their defense has been mediocre, and their special teams are anything but. The Raiders showed last week that theirs may be the best phase of their team as a whole, and I think that can make a difference. Smith v. Campbell is a push, if not a Raider advantage, and the Singletary seat gets hotter.
Tenn -3 - 1 unit
Look, I just think they'll run on Jacksonville. The Jags have a bottom half run defense, and the Titans have Johnson. Yes, they do some dumb things, but so does Jacksonville, and I think those wash. Titans by 3 may be generous here.
Baltimore +115 - 2 units
Defense reigns in this one. The major step back in deep threat for NE sans Moss will be apparent early, and I feel bad for Welker. Not much going on the ground for NE at all, and I think Flacco will be able to hang onto slim leads, and Rice will pound away.
SD/Rams 1H o22.5
San Diego likes to give up points, and the Rams like to score early and then roll over and die. Let's say this one will be interesting for two quarters, shake hands, and change the channel in the second half.
Pit/Cleveland 1Q o7 - 1 unit
The return of Rapistberger will spur momentum out the gate, and I think 10 points early out of the Steeler offense. If Cleveland gets anything going, it'll have to be early as well, because once the Pitt D gets comfortable, McCoy gets progressively less comfortable. Maybe 3 out of Cleveland all day, but hopefully in the first quarter.
Just for fun:
3 Team/6 pt Teaser
KC +10.5/Atlanta +8.5/ Detroit +16 - 2 units
Lord knows I am tempted to take the first two straight up, and that usually means adding six is even more comfortable. I do think KC has a legit chance to knock off the Texans, and I may still take Atlanta as Kolb does not inspire faith for me in Philly. As for the Lions, all they've done most of the year is cover and keep it close. The one time they didn't, Minnesota, they lost in the last couple minutes. I think 10 is a rough number, but 16 makes me very comfortable, so let's ride it out.
Might be more, but only because I am leaning Atlanta su. Best of luck to all of you
No post last week as the in-laws were coming by, and the place needed a good once-over. A 7-6 week, not my best again, but did manage to hit the LSU upset. Looking ahead to this weekend.
Early picks-
NC St -7 vs ECU - 1 unit
Baylor -1 vs colorado - 1 unit
Oregon St pk vs Washington - 1 unit
Air Force pk vs SDSU - 2 units
I really like getting on Air Force early this week, I don't know that anyone out west short of the big guns has the ability to contain them for the whole game. Definitely not San Diego State. Oregon St feels legit, and I get a sinking feeling with Washington. They may have one upset left in them, but it won't be this one. NC St. should roll over ECU, and I think this line balloons before Saturday, so I got in now.
Leans:
Ohio St -4
Army +7 @ Rutgers
South Carolina -5 @ Kentucky (They smell blood, the East is theirs for the taking, never go against the Ball Coach with blood in the water)
Iowa -3 @ Michigan (Robinson exposed... but is Iowa too slow? I think not, may lock this in early too)
Oklahoma St +3 @ Texas Tech
Arkansas +3 @ Auburn - Too much Mallett... this one is touch and go however... at 4 or 4.5 pull the trigger... wait and see.
Nevada -7 @ Hawaii - Long flight, but still, they're clearly the better team.
GL out there.
7-4 to start last week, could be better, but I'm not concerned.
And off we go:
Chicago ml +175:
The G-men are in disarray, no one seems to have much idea what's going on, and the Bear defense looks better than it has in a couple years. I think they're a legit threat to win the North, and make a deep playoff run. As long as Cutler stays on an even keel, they're dangerous, and I like them against a reeling Giants squad.
New England -1
I know, I know, the Dolphins give the Pats headaches. I just think Brady will assert himself this week, and the Dolphin offense has done nothing to wow me thus far. I think Welker and Brady hook up early and often, and this line is very generous.
Houston -3.5
Gradkowski has been fine for the Raiders, but I don't think the Raider defense will be able to stop Foster or the aerial attack. Johnson is expected to play, and that gives the edge to Houston for me.
Cincy/Cleveland o37.5
The run defenses are a push, neither has been impressive. The Browns and that manchild running back of theirs should have a decent day, and I think Palmer can get something going with Cleveland's abysmal secondary. This has the makings of a 28-24 kind of game for me.
That being said:
Cincy -3
Palmer getting going is big for the Bengals, and Seneca Wallace makes me very nervous for Brown backers. Should be some fireworks in this one.
Balt/Pit u34.5
Defensive slobberknocker in this one. Smells like 10-6, both going toe to toe all day. Flacco will be blitzed frequently, and with Ray Rice not at 100%, the ground game will have an even harder time. Batch will also spend a lot of time being banged around, and Mendenhall will have his issues against the Ravens front 7. I don't want to pick a winner in this one, too close to call.
New England 1H pk
Again, Brady-Welker early and often. Offensive edge has to go to New England in this one, and this is too nice to pass on.
Philly-Washington 1H o21.5
McNabb returns, excited out the gate, and leads some first half offense before Philly asserts itself. The putrid Washington defense gets gouged repeatedly by Vick and co., and 14-10 I think is a minimum halftime score.
and just for fun
3 team Teaser- 6 pt
Atl -.5/Chicago +9.5/Jets pk
Atlanta looks solid, and at home against a disarrayed niner squad, has a field day.
As I said before, chicago is legit, the Giants are on the cusp of total collapse, and 9.5 is a solid line.
Buffalo sucks, they have no offense. Even in a low scoring affair, the Jets have a decisive edge.
GL out there all.
Gonna be slammed today, so I'll get them in now. Baltimore made me back some dignity after the Phils shit the bed and the Marlins got called to blow most of my 4 teamer, but what a moose. Sorry for the Boston backers. Off we go.
4TP RR3/4 - 5 units to win 57.80
Brewers Rl +100, D'Backs +145, Blue Jays +113, White Sox +111
Pelfrey is not one of my favorites, and Gallardo against what is, in effect, a minor league squad should be a bit of a no-brainer. The Mets are just not a good club right now, and those Brewer bats are capable of roughing Pelfrey or that pen up pretty well.
Yes, Cueto is an evil monster. But the Reds bats are making the D'backs look like a juggernaut right. I think Garland can get the job done tomorrow night, in a low scoring affair.
Romero has been solid for the Jays of late, and I like to roll with the hotter pitcher. Some may argue that Shields is hot, but mostly that's at home. He scares me a bit on the road. I think the jays bats get going again tomorrow. Though it's tough to fade the Rays on a streak, I think Romero can get it done.
Sowers as a favorite? Eeeyuh... maybe not so much. The White Sox bats are hot, Cleveland's are in a bit of a funk. I think Contreras can get it done tomorrow, and Sowers has trouble getting out of the fifth.
In any case, GL all
Well, wing and a prayer day I think. Lots of the doggies out there barkin'. Let's see if I can get lucky for once.
4TP RR 3/4- 5 units to win 75.61
Marlins RL +135, Phillies +114, White Sox +175, O's +114
The Fish continue to win, and by two most nights. Gonna ride it out. West on the hill has looked good, while Stammen has had moments but little consistency.
Speaking of consistency problems, Lowe has them as well. Not that Blanton is a prize, but if this one hits the pens early, I'll take the Philly offense against the Braves pen over the alternative.
Lee has been good, but there is too much value in the White Sox here, as that Indians pen is the worst I have seen in a long time. Gotta hope that Cliff only goes 6 tonight, or less, and gives the White Sox some more QT with the Indians pen.
Smoltzy is a wonderful feel good story, but until I see a return to form, I have to fade him. Hill has been pretty solid, by and large, and I think with a bit of early run support, the O's take this one.
Might be it for today, GL all.