I wrote about the revenge factor in my Four-play column today but I wanted to expand on the Tennessee-Florida game because spreads like this are so rare in the SEC.
Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, couldn’t remember a spread off-hand that was this big recently in the conference. (As of Friday night, it was at 29.5 at Pinnacle.)
“The last time an SEC team laid more than four TDs that I found was all involving Miss State,” Kornegay said. “In 2006 Miss St was +33 at LSU (LSU 48-17), 2005 Miss State was +28 at Florida (FLA 35-9), and 2004 Miss State was like +31 at LSU (LSU 51-0).”
The record of 2-1 ATS doesn’t exactly suggest a lock here Saturday, but you get the point. This spread has gotten large.
Kornegay said the Hilton initially had Saturday’s game at 23 points and it’s been bet up to as high as 30 points at some places. However, he also said he guessed that bettors were intentionally pushing the line up to bet Tennessee when the line got high enough.
Looks like he’s right. The line is on the way back down again after reaching 30 at most books, so my advice is that if you like the Vols take ‘em early.
I am pissed.
Not so much because my college fantasy team has gone down the crapper like a dead gold fish, but it’s the reason why that’s making me angry.
So far I’ve lost starting running back Anthony Dixon (suspended after DUI arrest), Heisman winner Sam Bradford (shoulder injury) and my other starting running back, LeGarrette Blount (suspended for season).
It’s the suspension to Blount that is really killing me and I only partially blame Blount. In case you were a college football fan who was just rescued from being lost in the woods, Blount is suspended for the year after he “sucker punched” Boise State’s Byron Hout after the Broncos beat the Ducks 18-9 as 3.5-point favorites (
Betjamaica.com) last Thursday.
Now, the punch wasn’t very bright. Neither was the fact Blount tried to fight with fans in Boise after that. But he definitely didn’t deserve to have his football career ruined by being suspended for the season. What’s worse is that none of this would have ever happened if it wasn’t for the new handshake initiative from the American Football Coaches Association.
The association wants players to shake hands before college games this year in an effort to show sportsmanship.
It’s garbage. And in this case, it might have helped contribute to Blount’s run-in with Hout.
As part of the initiative, a selected group of Broncos players shook hands with a selected group of Oregon players prior to kickoff of this highly-charged game. No problem there – things went off without a hitch as you would expect.
The problem comes after the game. Instead of players shaking hands then and congratulating one another on a hard-fought game – or retreating to the locker room - Boise State players were milling about and beaking Oregon while the Ducks headed for the locker room.
Pow! Down goes Hout.
I don’t think players would be so inclined to chirp the opposing team’s players if you have to shake their hand, one by one, and look them in the eye. Because if you shake a guy’s hand, look squarely at him from arm’s length and say “that was for your momma”, you’re going to get punched. Pretty much guaranteed.
On the flip side, if you sucker punch a guy when he’s shaking your hand just because you lost the game, you’re pure scumbag and everybody knows it. You deserve every severe penalty you get.
But when you’re just walking past a guy, there’s a little more of a feeling like you can beak him in such a manner and get away with it.
Whatever Hout said, it wasn’t very nice. Maybe Oregon had it coming for all their revenge talk all summer. Maybe not. What I’m saying is this likely would not have happened if the players were shaking hands after the game like they used to.
Let’s treat these guys like men and get rid of this stupidity. Football is a physical game. Guys get hit. Not everybody will like everybody else when it’s over. But it’s more of a lesson in respect for everyone involved when you can go through a physical battle like that and still have the class to shake hands at the end of it.
I just fail to see any good in shaking hands before the game when the captains already do it anyway. Let’s hope this is the last incident of its kind this season.
Here’s an angle for Silly Ball bettors: take a hard look at betting the under in Winnipeg Blue Bombers games for the next little bit.
That might be a bit obvious, considering they just signed unemployed QB Michael Bishop in a desperate effort to kick start the offense. But let’s see how oddsmakers react this week.
The over/under is 1-3 in Bombers games so far this season and oddsmakers at Pinnaclesports.com have posted all three of their totals between 50 and 53.5 points. It’s a little surprising we haven’t seen a bigger adjustment considering their starting quarterbacks just threw for a total of 66 yards in a 19-5 loss to the Toronto Argos and Stefan Lefors has the worst completion percentage in the CFL (46 percent).
What you might not have read about is that head coach Mike Kelly told the Winnipeg Free Press last week that he was going to simplify his offense because he had overestimated his talent at the beginning of the season. And that’s likely to continue with yet another quarterback stepping in to take over this week.
Another reason to like the under is the defense has been playing well considering the guys on the defensive unit can barely get off the field. The Blue Bombers allowed an average of 21 points in their three losses and it’s thanks to the defense they’ve actually managed to cover the spread twice.
The one worry for under bettors is that the defense might be exhausted this week for the rematch against the Argos in Toronto on Saturday afternoon. The good news there though, is the Boatmen only score 23.5 points per game – only four more than the Bombers.
Let’s see what the oddsmakers give us, but I’m thinking it could be a while before we see Winnipeg get over the number.
I took the Jays/Phillies game to go under 9 runs Tuesday night thinking that Cole Hamels was on the mound and the Jays have been hitting like they’ve traded their bats for purses lately.
I also liked the fact that Ricky Romero was being slightly underestimated by oddsmakers here as a young arm that has been a pleasant surprise for the Bee-Jays as their rotation continues to crumble to injuries.
But there was another factor I failed to consider that also helped my bet. His name is Ricky Romero.
Not the guy on the mound. The guy at the plate.
Watching him bat with runners on the corners in the fourth inning with one out, the Jays up 2-1, was like watching a little kid trying to jump off the diving board for the first time.
He was lining up to bunt for so long before Hamels delivered that I can’t believe the Phillies’ southpaw didn’t crack up laughing and call for time.
On his second strike, he sort of whiffed on a bunt that made his bat look like he was holding a piece of road kill.
“That was new,” said the Rogers Sportsnet color guy. (I think it was Pat Tabler doing the game.)
Romero went down on strikes after following up that embarrassment with the ugliest hack I’ve seen all season. Surely this guy has had to hit at some point in his life on his way to the majors. Right?
He finished the game with three strikeouts and a pop up in the eight inning with two runners on and one out. (Why Cito Gaston didn't pinch hit for him in the eighth, I'll never know because he didn't pitch in the bottom of the inning.) In total, he left eight runners on base in the game.
It reminded me just how big the advantage can be for NL clubs when they’re at home during interleague play. Not to mention for the under.
I had to lay a bit of juice (-120) at Betjamaica.com to get the under on this one, but after watching Romero at the plate I liked my bet, even though Toronto scored five runs in the 10th innning to spoil it for me.
The Jays ended up winning 8-3 as +175 underdogs (at BetJam).
If I hear “this is the game you always dream about when you’re playing street hockey as a kid” one more time, I’m going to get sick all over myself.
That’s the real problem with a two-day layoff in the NHL finals – we have to listen to the same clichés a million times over for a whole extra day. Hockey players are the nicest guys in sports, but they are also the worst interview.
Thankfully, it will come to an end tonight at 8 p.m. when Game 7 goes down at the Joe.
Who will win? The Wings should, but I probably won’t be betting on them for Game 7. I took them at 3-1 to win the Cup at Betjamaica.com before the playoffs began and with that on the line, I don’t have much incentive to lay the -195 Friday night.
I am thinking about hedging with the Pens at +165 but then I’d go and suck all the drama out of the thing. It’s not very often your futures wager comes down to one game when it comes to betting H-ball so I might as well ride it out.
Here are a few other wagers I am looking at for Game 7:
Under 5.5 – Unless the goalies forget their pads, this one is going under. And grab it now because the juice is going up. Both goalies were sensational in Game 6, which was also the tightest checking game of this series by a long shot. The zamboni could have skipped the middle of the ice when it flooded between periods and we might not have noticed.
Expect this one to play out the same way. Most of the action will be contained to the boards and players will be blocking shots with their noses if they have to.
Besides all that, the refs might as well take the pea out of their whistles. The last thing the stripes want is to have this thing decided by a whack of power plays and we’ve already seen them call fewer and fewer throughout this series.
Overtime – I’m putting a small wager on the game going to OT when it comes out. The payoff will be solid and if this game is as tight-checking as I think it will be, I like the odds.
Conn Smythe winner – No line yet, but in my mind this comes down to two guys: Osgood or Crosby. If they’re both plus money, I’m hitting both.
Marian Hossa – Unless he’s matched up against Crosby, I’m taking Hossa to get more points than anyone the book can throw at him from Pittsburgh. This game is the very reason Hossa signed a one-year deal for less dough with Detroit last offseason instead of re-signing with the Pens. If he doesn’t play like his jock is on fire, he should probably just retire.
Good luck and enjoy the game. My final prediction is 2-1 Wings in overtime. Let’s go with Cleary to get the game winner.