Posted Saturday, October 15, 2011 04:15 AMWinnipeg +2.5 (-110): Cashed with the Bombers as a dog last week, don't see why anything changes this week. Bombers are 9-5, and other than a few letdown spots have been great all season. Edmonton has been up and down, you never know what you are gonna get and even if they play their best it might not be enough. Winnipeg's run game is fine w/o Reid, and Buck Pierce is showing his ability to lead the offence. Edmonton excels when they are able to establish the run game, but that seems unlikely against the 2nd best run defence in the CFL. Ricky Ray is still trying to find his groove this year. His last four games reflect that with passing totals of 197, 255, 213 and 227. Winnipeg has the best defence in the East, and an offence that can move the ball when necessary. I love betting on Buck, he has the will to win. Risking 2.2 to win 2.
Carolina +4.5 (-110): The Panthers can cover games, and on that fast Georgia turf Cam Newton should feel right at home. Atlanta is not the same team, and now their best WR (and yes he is their best) Julio Jones is likely out with an injury. This is not the same team as last year, they have problems all over the field. I expect another cover, and perhaps even a win by the Panthers. Risking 2.2 to win 2.
Detroit -4 (-110): San Fran getting too much respect. Sure, they can stop the run, but despite Best's best efforts,Detroit can't run the ball. San Fran is 23rd in the league in yards allowed in the air, and this is where Stafford excels at picking teams apart. Meanwhile, San Fran now has to deal with Fairley in addition to Suh up front. This is a Niners team that has to run to stay competitive, because you can't put it all on Alex Smith. Detroit's secondary is much improved. I like this play because even if San Fran jumps out ahead, with their secondary and Detroit's top tier passing offence, that lead will always be in jeopardy. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5.
I would encourage haters to bring on the hate (accompanied by some reasoning) prior to kickoff :)
GL
Record: 40-25-2, +18.50
Last Week: 1-4, -5.25 units
Early Predictions
Winnipeg 29, Edmonton 23
Hamilton 31, Montreal 33
British Columbia 24, Saskatchewan 22
Winnipeg +5 (-110): Hamilton is over rated big time. You surprised a Calgary team playing more time zones away than they've ever had to and you beat a beat down Argos squad, big deal. What makes you 2 point favourites on a neutral field? Winnipeg's run game will be fine, it's not like Fred Reid was tearing it up this year. Garrett had 76 yards on 11 carries against a team that gives up 82.5 yards per game, easily best in the CFL. That is an amazing stat, and now you are likely to get Buck Pierce back to run the offence. As much as I love the Lions, I can admit that Buck Pierce has the most heart of any athlete I have ever seen play. Love this line, but will load up a bit more once I find out about Buck. Bombers are 2-0 vs. Hamilton this season. Hamilton has the 3rd worst rushing d and the 2nd worst pass d. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5.
Record: 40-25-2, +23.75 units
Last Week: 4-2, +2.25 units
Early Predictions
Winnipeg 41, Hamilton 17
Calgary 24, British Columbia 30
Toronto 29, Montreal 32
Saskatchewan 15, Edmonton 28
British Columbia -5 (-110): There are so many warning signs,
it's not even funny, as the Lions have a habit of letting down their backers
when it counts most. New stadium, lots of hype, holding down a huge winning
streak, Edmonton losing to a bunch of 2nd string defenders... it all points to
BC. Looks too easy, I will just go small on this line. Risking 1.1 to
win 1.
Saskatchewan +5.5 (-110): It's not a total wild prediction,
but I will say that if the Riders don't beat the Stamps this weekend they will
not make the playoffs, even if they finish the year 5-0. This is because they
would then be 4 games behind Calgary, and either three games behind Edmonton
and BC or 2 games behind BC and 4 games behind Edmonton. They might as well be
an extra game behind BC since they have already lost the season series.
Needless to say, the Riders will be all in for this game. Even when they
sucked, they played Calgary hard. Calgary is struggling to find a running game,
and as witnessed against BC, have a tough time dealing with a strong pass rush,
which the Riders now possess. In fact, despite the big loss, the Riders have
the same type of make up as the Lions, and I expect them to at least keep this
a one possession game until the very end. Fantuz is questionable.Risking 1.1
to win 1.
Detroit +1 (-110): That's two weeks in a row where the Cowboys
have failed to cover, and didn't even deserve to win. This Cowboys team is beat
up, and it is showing. Bad route running, bad snaps, poor decision making, this
team has been lucky to play two poor teams in a row. Well, that will stop on
Sunday, when the 4-0 Lions come to town. Not only would I take the Lions if
Dallas was completely healthy, but one look at the ATS records of these two
teams says even more. Dallas is not to be trusted, and frankly, I'm surprised
the Lions aren't listed as 2-3 point favourites. With all their defensive
injuries, I don't know who will stop Titus Young, let alone Burleson and the
unstoppable Megatron. Even if Romo can move the ball, I don't think he can keep
up. Risking 1.65 to win 1.5.
Tennessee +1 (-110): Britt is gone, big deal. Matt Hasslebeck is a
chuck, he is not afraid to throw it up, and still has some weapons to catch
with Washington and Cook needing to pick up some slack. Even if the
talented Haden takes out Washington, I’m not worried about the Titans, who will
look to get the run game going against one of the worst run defences we’ve seen
this season. Cleveland is clearly a run-first team, but will be going against a
Titans team that is one of the best in the league at stopping the run, giving
up only 89 yards/game thus far on the ground. They are even better against the
pass, ranked 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed. All in all,
this is turning into a great defence that should be able to stop the below
average Cleveland offence with relative ease. Risking 1.1 to win 1.
All for now, more to come. Also, in case anyone missed it, former Stamps
DB Brandon Browner had the dubious task of defending Larry Fitzgerald on
Sunday, and actually did a half decent job against arguably the best WR in the
NFL. If only NFL teams gave CFL guys a shot, I know for a fact there are plenty
more who could make an impact down south. You telling me Tennessee couldn’t use
Jamel Richardson or Andy Fantuz? Odel Willis could help the pass rush of many
teams, while Cory Boyd could be a great 3rd down RB.
Record: 36-23-2, +21.15 units
Last Week: 4-5-1, -2.3 units
Early Predictions
Montreal 26, Winnipeg 21
British Columbia 29, Edmonton 22
Saskatchewan 44, Calgary 34
Toronto 23, Hamilton 21
Calgary +1 (-110): This is arguably the toughest betting week of the year in the CFL, and I am really hesitant to take anyone in the other games. However, Calgary presents immediate value when you look at Calgary's road record (5-0), past history (Calgary beat Hamilton by 12 this year) and Hamilton's lack of success this year against anyone decent (with the exception of Montreal). Okay, so we know Hamilton matches up well against Montreal because the Als are decimated in the secondary and are often unable to stop teams from passing even when it is evident to everyone that a pass is coming. Calgary is one of the best against the pass this year, and despite losing to BC, only gave up three plays over 13 yards in the air, and a measly 186 yards to Lulay. BC currently has a better passing attack than Hamilton, so this says a lot. The Stamps have been stopping the air attack all year. Hamilton won't beat them on the ground, and as we've seen all year, Calgary rebounds well (especially on the road). Risking 2.2 to win 2.
Jacksonville/Carolina OVER 42.5 (-110): I rarely play totals, but with all the overs hitting in the NFL, how can I not jump on this? I was skeptical of Newton when he picked apart those conscripted drunks Arizona calls a secondary, but when he worked over Green Bay, I was impressed. This kid is only going to get better, but what's great right now is that he likes to air it out without much regard for throwing picks, etc. Meanwhile, with all the injuries on the Carolina defence (Beason being the big one), even the lowly Jags should be able to run the ball all day, generating opportunities for whoever is playing QB to throw some good play action passes. Risking 1.1 to win 1.
More to come, but waiting on some line movement....
Record: 32-18-1, +23.45 units
Last Week: 8-0-1, +11.5 units
Early Predictions
Montreal 35, Edmonton 33
British Columbia 25, Saskatchewan 20
Toronto 22, Winnipeg 19
Calgary 38, Hamilton 17
Dallas -3 (-120): Great value on a team that should have won last night. This is a team that was up 14 in the 4th quarter and failed to win, largely because Mark Sanchez, despite his shitty appearance, does suffer from back against the wall syndrome, and can play when needed. What we get in week 2 is a Dallas opponent with an offence probably a bit less capable than NYJ, and a defence nowhere near as good. With both Austin and Bryant, along with Felix Jones who should have a much better day, Romo is equipped with some serious weapons, along with the pressure of getting a win before this season spirals out of control like the last. Risking 4.8 units to win 4.
Detroit -2/Saskatchewan -1 Teaser (-110): I picked on the Chiefs last week with a big dog, and I think this week could actually be worse. If I wasn't such a pussy I would take both these games strait up, because they both present great matchups. Detroit presents a formidable defensive line with some serious beasts that will do a great job of controlling the line of scrimmage and help limit the KC running game. After that, KC doesn't have much else, they are injured, and have a secondary that is already bad w/o Berry being out for the year. Things just get worse, and Matt Stafford IMO is a top 5 QB in the NFL. In the other game, you get a Toronto team that is featuring a QB who is likely still in preseason mode, learning the offence, and how to make chicken soup out of chicken shit. As some talked about earlier this year, Sasky was going to be great value once they got themselves healthy. Not only did they do that, but they get the ol' boy Ken Miller back to rejuvinate this team. Saskatchewan can beat anyone right now, they are the best in the league. Risking 3.3 to win 3.
Record: 24-18, +11.95 units
Last Week: 5-3, +3.00 units
Early Predictions
Edmonton 32, Hamilton 25
Saskatchewan 40, Toronto 11
BC 30, Calgary 28
Montreal 26, Winnipeg 22