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That should just about cover everyone that will read this.

While the rest of you were downing a six pack and watching the HRD I was busy as hell doing what I do, computing probability. So, the balance of the season looks like this, complete with final standings and playoff projections.

AL East

Yankees 92-70, Rays 83-79, Blue Jays 81-81, Orioles 80-82, Red Sox 79-83

AL Central

White Sox 87-75, Tigers 84-78, Indians 85-80, Royals 74-88, Twins 72-90

AL West

Rangers 91-71, Angels 88-74, A’s 81-81, Mariners 72-90

Wild Card – Angels over Rays

LDS – Rangers over White Sox

LDS – Yankees over Angels

LCS – Yankees over Rangers

NL East

Nationals 90-72, Mets 87-75, Braves 84-78, Marlins 79-83, Phillies 75-87

NL Central

Pirates 87-75, Reds 85-77, Cardinals 84-78, Brewers 80-82, Cubs 72-90 Astros 70-92

NL West

Giants 85-77, Dodgers 84-78, Diamondbacks 80-82, Padres 71-91, Rockies 69-93

Wild Card – Mets over Reds

LDS – Nationals over Dodgers

LDS -  Mets over Pirates

LCS – Nationals over Pirates

WS – Yankees over Nationals

Money Burners – Yankees and Nationals

Money Makers – Cubs, Padres, Mariners, Royals, Twins  

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League East

I have saved the most popular division in MLB for last as it will also be the most controversial opinion I have. We must never forget that surprises are not the exception in baseball, they are the rule. Just about the time you feel things will never change, they do, and very suddenly. In sports wagering we have to be ahead of the curve, never behind it, that is only for trend players. How many of us can say their pre season pick to go all the way the last two years were the Giants and Cardinals? How many can honestly say that their pick in the playoffs was the second place team from the “weak” NL Central that had one of their top guns on the DL? So, here we go, genius or idiot I can live with, but don’t use either term before the season is played, OK?

5. Baltimore Orioles. Inept, dysfunctional franchise that ranks right up there with Pirates and Cubs. MLB should create a sixth division so the three of them can get together and pretend they are MLB teams when they beat each other. Pathetic, but at least they are not controversial and easy to handicap.

4. Boston Red Sox. I honestly believe Francona and Epstein took the heat, and the hit, willingly because they saw the future and it wasn’t pretty. Better to get out of Dodge while the getting is good. The late collapse of the Red Sox last year smelled like interior rot to me because if it were not a top to bottom problem the shit would have hit the fan earlier and we would have seen heads rolling. Beckett and Lester look reliable; the rest of the staff is a crap shoot. Valentine may or may not be the answer, but of course he was excited and optimistic, after all, he was looking for a job. Maybe call this one instinct but my opinion is we see some decline in the Red Sox this year. Maybe you get away with that in one of the central divisions, but not here.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. Love what they have done with this club, but the back end of the order is just a touch scary. This will probably be one of the most entertaining clubs to watch though and if the Yankees slip just a little they could slide into the two spot. Runs galore, but that may not be enough.

2. New York Yankees. To beat the Rays they will have to out pitch them and that is going to be quite a chore. The core of the lineup has added another hard year to a long list of them and I don’t expect Jeter, Rodriguez or Texeira to have the impact they once did. There is no guarantee Granderson will give them another 2011 either. Vulnerable may be the best term for the Yankees, but we will see won’t we?

1. Tampa Bay Rays. I love this organization and everything they do, top to bottom. They built it and they sustain it the right way. This will be the only team in the AL East to play more unders than overs and win most of them. This staff has no need of a “stopper”. If they lose two or three in a row the next guy that takes the ball on the hill can play “stopper”. It is possible for this team to win 15 straight and not score 50 runs in the process. Maddon has laid low all the way through the spring because he doesn’t have anything to worry about but disabling injury. Otherwise he is looking at 2.5 hour games and 95 wins. This is easily the most overlooked club in the AL East and could be a real boon to bettors as the public will be backing offensive teams.   

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League Central

The two Central Divisions in MLB can be real moneymakers if one is watching closely. Less popularity equals less public support and more reasonable lines. Just as I felt the NL Central was divided into two groups (shame on you if you didn’t read it), I feel this division is divided into three. Tigers at the top, Twins at the bottom, and the three in the middle competitive as hell, especially versus each other.

5. Minnesota Twins. Mauer and Morneau are the nucleus of a respectable offense, when they are in there and not on the DL. The real problem is that the starting staff has been overvalued and continues to decline. The names look good on the backs of their jerseys and the opinion of most folks is that this is a good if not spectacular group. I like the names myself but the performances and skill sets simply aren’t there. At this time I rate Baker the best of the bunch and rank him only 1.4 percentage points above average. I see a troublesome future for the Twins unless they revert to their old ways of raising their own kids in the minors and bringing them along. The most recent three, Duensing, Liriano and Blackburn simply do not show me the skill sets to be front runners and the Twins when they are not hitting are not going to post a lot of wins.

3c. Kansas City Royals. I had hoped to grade out the Royals as a little clearer choice versus the White Sox and Indians but fell about one percentage point short, which is to say that all three of them could easily juxtaposition throughout the season and give us a more interesting race for second place than some of the division title races will be. The real name of the game for the Royals is to continue the program. They are loaded in the minors and some of those guys will be along shortly, just as the recent call ups are maturing. For betting purposes we must remember that the Royals may often look good as a short favorite and very often be a dangerous dog. Please God, just don’t let the public catch on.

3b. Chicago White Sox. I swear, when it comes to grading I think the White Sox are closest to average in just about every category. There really is little to criticize but there isn’t very much to get excited about either. There is one spot in which they excel though. They could be very tough on left handed pitching. I will be watching closely to see if they are getting to lefty starters early and often because that is one of those very sneaky edges most bettors pay little or no attention to. In the 5 Inning Discussion Thread about three or four years ago I caught he Royals at this. They were like 12-4 versus lefty starters in spite of having a losing record overall, and it was no fluke because the names were Sabathia, Lee (when he was with Cleveland) and several others of solid reputation. The beauty of it was that since the Royals record overall wasn’t very good, the betting public never caught on and we kept getting really nice dog prices in those spots. The White Sox could be the same type of team this year, so keep an eye on it.

3a. Cleveland Indians. I am just as hesitant to lay an “a” on the Indians as I am a “c” on the Royals, but what the hell, everybody has to be somewhere don’t they? I guess I give the rotation just a little nod here as opposed to the others but it still remains to be seen if they can produce all season. We can feel confident with Masterson of course but Tomlin has to come through again and Jimenez needs to look a lot more like his old self, and Lowe, Gomez and Slowey are a little scary. The rest looks OK so health and momentum may play important roles for this team.

1. Detroit Tigers. Surprise, surprise huh? Yeah, they paid the money and put it together and any team with Verlander at the top of the rotation can’t be all bad, right? Fister and Fielder add potential, but God help this team if either Verlander or Fister goes on the DL for any length of time. The problem with the Tigers is going to be the same as with the Angels. The public is so sold on them the odds will be sky high unless they play a highly ranked team outside of their division. Just as I warned about the Angels, the books are not in business to give away “easy money”. Be careful what kind of juice you are willing to pay for that easy money.  

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The American League West

This is certainly not the toughest division to write up and it may not be next year when Houston replaces Seattle at the bottom, but what the hell, I have some notes and opinions worthy of the time it takes to read them, so let’s go.

4. Seattle Mariners. You have heard of Spahn and Sain and pray for rain? Seattle is rainy country all right but there will be never be enough rain to get by on only one top gun starter. Felix Hernandez looks primed for another run at the Cy Young but if he gets it he may get it with only 13 to 15 wins. This team gives a whole new definition to the term rebuilding. Kevin Millwood may give them a steady hand (are you listening Baltimore?) but his best days are past and I show surprisingly low skill set numbers for the balance of the staff. The only good news regarding the M’s is that they may draw some really respectable dog odds since the entire betting public hates them, and unders should be a given when Hernandez or Millwood take the ball at home. 

3. Oakland Athletics. He does it with smoke and mirrors but Billy Beane somehow does put a team together and occasionally a very competitive one. This club could, in my humble opinion, win close to 77 games and be a bettors delight, as long as you don’t chew your fingernails to the bone watching their games. You guys on the East Coast should consider betting them in home games at night just so you can go to bed and not agonize over your bet. Get up in the morning, grab a cup of coffee, check the results. Simple (KISS). Beane has caught a great deal of criticism for parting company with Gonzalez and Cahill, but this may be another case where he has unloaded people at their maximum trade value and has his replacement ducks in a row. The potential is there, so, can they get the performance? Watch for dog opportunities when the A’s are playing below 48%, as that is when they will have true value.

2. Texas Rangers. Folks are excited about the Rangers but must remember that the staff is more promise than proven performance. I would be the last guy on earth to tell Nolan Ryan how to build a staff, so I have faith he has put it together, BUT? The talent is probably there and if so, he knows how to get the performance, but this staff is probably a year or two away from maximum potential and productivity and will need some help from the offense. No worries about slipping to third but also not likely to remain number one versus the Angels checkbook.

1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Money talks, and a lot of money literally screams. The Angels are in position to win at least 90+ games and anything less will have folks falling back on the old and overused cliché “rich, spoiled athletes.” Not to worry, the money was well spent and the wins will be there. What will probably not be there are odds that reflect the true probability of each games outcome. In all likelihood the odds will be inflated and risky to wager on. There are always folks that think the odds don’t matter as long as the team wins, but they don’t always win and the big juice on the losses keeps the bookies smiling. If we assume 93 wins, right on the line, that is still only 57.4% of their games and that does not justify juice over -136. Of course Weaver, Haren and Wilson can lay a little more, but be very careful how high you go. Books are very aware of who the high probability, high public favor, teams are, and they don’t set lines where you can make “easy money”.

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With all due respect for the opinions of others this is my opinion. If you disagree, so be it, you are entitled to your opinion. Discussions are welcome, but bashing is for total idiots that think they already know everything and are going to crush the books this season.

The National League East

Why not post them up in the opposite order packers1992 did and save the best, and most controversial, for last? I like the idea so that is what I am doing.

5. New York Mets. I hate to over use a phrase but the Mets run a close second to the Pirates for dysfunctional franchise. If they ever get any organizational management and capital in there at least they have the fan base to soak while they return to respectability. There really is no good reason to review their probability and I will get off their collective backs with “good luck with your comeback, Johan.”

4. Miami Marlins. A flurry of moves in the off season for the new park, new names, new uniforms and eternal optimism. I only have to imagine Josh Johnson going on the extended DL and the rest of it won’t make diddly squat of a difference. This team needs (badly) a stud ace at the front of the rotation and the loss of him would only provide the excuses for a downhill roll. Before you jump in my crap I will tell you flat out that Mark Buehrle is a competent 2, excellent 3, not a stud ace. Every other pitcher on that staff needs to upgrade his most recent performances and Zambrano needs to have a season on the field and out of the newspapers. They really went out on a limb with this team and I am not following. I may have to eat my words in October but not if they don’t get 25+ starts from Johnson.

3. Atlanta Braves. Swan Song year for Chipper and I hope he makes the full circuit for the fan accolades he deserves. Fine career, Hall of Fame in 2017, first ballot. Other than that the Braves are just about as middle of the road as you can get in almost all respects. They do have promising young pitching to go along with a few experienced vets and that is never a bad combination, but probably no better a prospectus that right in the middle of a tough division.

2. Washington Nationals. OK, I will buy into the Nationals because they have consistently made the right moves to build a darn good team. Championship caliber? Probably not, but you have to crawl before you can walk and walk before you can run. Betting wise, I think we need to be cautious because the Nationals are a popular public team and will often draw lines that are close to or over their true value. That is what happens when you are no longer a secret and become a public darling. If I am right and they take second in a tough division there may not be a lot of profit in betting them anyway.

1. Philadelphia Phillies. In many cases these days folks are willing to believe that a great offense will overcome a poor pitching staff, but that has never been true and in the case of the Phillies the folks will bow to the eternal wisdom and grant that pitching trumps everything. They paid for it, they deserve to get it, and they will. Period. Finis. End of story. Sayonara baby. I see playoff troubles ahead, but no question in my mind the Phillies take the division.

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