Spent a good chunk of time at work today capping these, including an entire hour on DET/NJ. ( I know and yes I wanna go slam my head into a wall because of it)
Early in the day was wavering back and forth on DET then it went to NJ and then I just got frustrated. Also there's a crucial must hit game in here as well (K State loss = both parlays miss). Let's get to it 2 parlays both 3 teamers tryin to get a bankroll together...
Atlanta +2 - Buying the hook and tailing IMO a very solid Hawks team that doesn't play the best on the road but unless Durant finds a phone booth around the court I don't see OKC being able to beat the Hawks tonight. Even money being placed on both teams and give me the ATL starting 5 against Durant/Westbrook.
(NHL) Vancouver ML -150 Inititially this was Mich St/Wiscy over 125 play but I got scurred. Canucks won their last 7 Montreal lost their last 3, hoping the Vancouver win streak continues and at a decent price
K State ML - Here's the kicker, for both parlays too this one loses and it's back to the drawing board. Wildcats have looked amazing against Texas, really solid and hungry against Kansas and please please don't throw up a duck against Nebraska. I understand you guys haven't beat em on their court since the 90's but that should just be more firepower for you. Get hyped and get this win.
Detroit/New Jersey under 184 - Like I said was leaning DET then NJ then a thought came in my head. Where in the hell are these two gonna get 184 from?!? We've decided to run with that thought.
K State ML - Cmon Wildcats get this win!
Golden State +7 - Not thrilled with this play but it's all that's left on the board unless we go back to NHL and I don't want to do that twice. GS isn't as bad as their away record indicates, and those big losses are coming against big teams too. Houston's dropped 4 of their last 5 home games anyway! Warriors can score and quickly too (over 100 in 4 of their last 5 games/all losses though) 7 is a lot and I don't see Houston running away with this one.
Good luck and let's go pop a parlay!
First of all I'm gonna start by saying that I don't see any value in betting the aging and somewhat aching Federer at 2-1. 3 years ago at Wimbledon okay yeah but not now. That said let's move on to the other heavyweights starting with Rafael Nadal at a generous 4-1.
Rafael Nadal 4-1. I gotta be honest I'm surprised to see Rafal only at 4-1, but no complaints here. You gotta think this guy is going to be ready to impress coming off the losses to Soderling and Del Potro. In fact every year at the Aussie he goes one round further than the year before. In that case I guess there's a super-ultimate-champion final this year because I didn't think you could do better than winning the tournament, which is what Rafal did last year. Traditional wisdom assures us that he should be around for at least the Semi's. At 4-1 it's not a huge return on your money but if you want a horse that's gonna be in the race late in the procedings then Nadal's your guy. Just be careful if he runs into Lleyton. Joking, kind of. Believe it or not but Lleyton Hewitt is 2-0 vs. Nadal in the Kangeroo classic.
As much as I'd like to have Delpo I just can't take him at 4-1. He's a great talent no doubt about it but 4-1 isn't a big enough price for me.
That brings us to the lower echelon of the heavyweights. A couple 5-1's with Murray and Djokovic and then Davydenko is 8-1. I've heard a lot lately about Nikolay being on top of his game, and undoubtedly his recent success speaks for itself however this is a grand slam, and since 2007 Davydenko has only made it to ONE quarterfinal in 7 tournaments. Not to mention this guy is a complete headcase. If you think Davy can actually make it deep then be my guest but my money will be going on a sounder mind. So it's either Murray or Joker. On one hand Murray is a big fan favorite and has been really breaking through as of late. However the Aussie Open isn't really where Murray exceeds, far from it. Only 2 times has Andy gotten to even the R16 and never past there. He's even gotten bounced in the 1st round twice!
Novak Djokovic 5-1. Kinda see what we're goin for here? I want people that are gonna be in the tournament late in the draw. Can't be much more of a contender year after year than the Joker. In the last 3 years he's won the tournament by beating Tsonga, lost last year to Roddick in the quarters and a R16 loss to then #1 Federer in 07'. When Novak won it all in 2008 6 out of 7 matches he finished in 3 sets.
Before we talk middleweights let's look at who we're gonna pass on...
Robin Soderling 15-1. Yes he had an incredible 09'. Yes he is a great rising star, much like maybe Delpo used to be. To be blunt I don't feel like he's done enough to gain my play as a middleweight. You want the giant killer, go right ahead I'm passing.
Marin Cilic 20-1. No real explanation needed
David Nalbandien 50-1. See Marin Cilic, if you need further explanation think of a Mikhail Youhzny or David Ferrer a few years ago, you knew they could win matches but they just never did.
Field 15-1. If you're gonna play the field down under then I've got a bridge I'd like to talk to ya about buyin. Really? What part of the field looks alluring? To give you an idea of how obscure the field is. Sam Querrey, John Isner and Ernests Gulbis are all on the board. Good luck to you sir.
Andy Roddick 25-1. I wouldn't be excited about playing Roddick unless I was getting maybe 20, 30-1. What's that? He's getting 25-1?!? Are you fucking kidding me? Finals at Wimbledon, Semi's at the Aussie both last year? 4 career Semi Finals appearences at the Aussie? Sign me up. If nothin else I can be patriotic and scream obnoxiously. Kidding. 25-1 leaves some hedge room too, if ya want it.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 25-1. I'm takin Tsonga instead of Verdasco just because of Nando's resume in the Aussie. With the exception of his Semi-final run last year Verdasco NEVER even made it out of the R64. Tsonga on the other hand is pretty consistent. He's played it 3 times and after being bounced by Roddick in the 1st round, Tsonga has made a final against Joker and a quarterfinal last year before being bounced by ironically, Fernando Verdasco. 25-1 is a huge value for Tsonga and he should have a high enough seed to not have too much trouble with the opening rounds. After all if you're gonna play a 25-1 you might as well play one with the intensity, physicality and athleticism of this beast of a Frenchman.
Why not take a shot with?
Gael Monfils 80-1. Currently ranked 12th in the world and another beast of a human being. 6'4" with a monster serve and last year 2 R16 appearences and a Semi-finalist at the French while sitting Wimbledon out. 2 of his grand slam losses came against Federer/Nadal. If Gael can make it to the quarters who knows what he can do from there but I'll be ecstatic that I got him at 80-1!
Marcos Baghdatis 100-1. Who can forget the Cypriot's run to the finals in 06' before being shot down by Fed Express? Most don't know he also lost to Roger at the Aussie in 05' as well R16. A tough draw that ended in a loss to Monfils in 07 and then a 5 setter against Hewitt in the R32 in 08'. Baghy made it to the R16 last year at the Australian Open before losing to Djokovic. Definately a long shot but if Baghdatis can get to the quarters this year you can hedge that 100-1 down to whatever you want.
So who will I be playing when the Kangeroo Classic starts this Monday? (Other than early round moneyline favorite parlays of course...)
Rafael Nadal 4-1
Novak Djokovic 5-1
Andy Roddick 25-1
Jo Wilfried Tsonga 25-1
Gael Monfils 80-1
Marcos Baghdatis 100-1
Who do you like or not like? Thoughts comments insults all below!
You can find the writeups under my post in the Tennis forum, here are my Monday plays
Verdasco +150 for 1 unit
Hewitt +900 for .2 units (SHOT IN THE DARK)
Safin -125 for 2 units
Gasquet +110 for 1 unit
Mattek +550 for 1 unit (UPSET SPECIAL)
Good luck to any and all who tail, right now Nando is dominating early up a set so looks like we're off to a good start. Depending on some things I might pick up Baghdatis later this morning, lot of chalk though.