Although more than a few sportsbooks have dropped the Over/Under from 7.5 to 7 (5Dimes, Bookmaker, GTBets, and BetDSI), I still have faith in the Over -- whether 7 or 7.5.
Royals lefty Jason Vargas is 3-10 with an ERA of 5.10 on at least six days rest. He last pitched 13 days ago. He does, however, hold a 2/3 record and a 1.94 ERA against Baltimore. But despite a great showing against the Angels, a 2-1 victory on October 2nd, he lost his last three regular season matchups and sported a bloated 9.00 ERA.
Orioles righty Miguel Gonzalez has been off since September 28, and his ERA on more than six days rest is also high, 4.53. He is 1-2 against the Royals, including a 7-1 loss at Kansas City last July.
I'm no MLB conspiracy theorist, so I don't buy the idea that Major League Baseball will somehow aid the Orioles in avoiding the sweep.
Yet I do believe that this afternoon's game shall be competitive and high scoring, much more like the Royals 8 - 6 and 6 - 4 victories. The Birds bats will fly again.
Over 7 (or 7.5) for +107
Pardon my reference to the 1980's Vapors one hit wonder.
*Also, as always, tail with caution. I have found the Japanese J2 league quite tricky to turn a profit...even when I felt sure that I had a hit song...errr, I mean bet.
*In addition, your online sportsbook may not offer J2 soccer. Two books that do are 5dimes and Bovada.lv.
Avispa Fukuoka -125
The "Fuks" are facing second to last in the J2 table Kamatamare Sanuki, a club that has scored 29 goals yet given up 64. Avispa sits #11 of 22 teams, and has scored 44 goals while conceding 47.The last time the two teams met was April 20, 2014, on Sanuki pitch and the final score was a 1-1 draw. Given that Avispa is playing at home this match, and is playing in much better form than Kamatamare, I really like the "Fuks" -- especially at the -125 price.
I also played the over 2 1/2 goals at -115.
Next up, I love Giravanz Kitakyushu as a +105 Pick or +220 on the Draw.
Yes, Tochigi is the home team, and history is on their side. But currently Kitakyushu is in much better form...sitting in 4th place while Tochigi is 15th -- and has conceded 11 more goals than Giravanz.
For all those like me who love these midnight pitch plays, live long, tail wisely, and let's all profit!
"I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so."
Before I begin, 'eh, I wanted to share a classic SCTV sketch.
Thank the Lord (and Lord Stanley, too), and Barry Melrose's never fading mullet that the puck has finally dropped on a new season of NHL hockey!
I really like the Wild tonight over an Avalanche squad that really struggled during the preseason -- a -12 goal differential that left them in the basement of the Western Conference central division. Conversely, Minnesota scored 17 goals and allowed 17 goals to finish just behind the Dallas Stars.
Yes, I know, I know, one should never make too much out of preseason games in any professional sport. And, yes, it took seven games for the Wild to oust the Avalanche from the playoffs last year.
Yet also recall that Minnesota then fought hard in six games against the Blackhawks.
My only concern is recent line movement, which appears to be moving in Colorado's favor. In fact, my online sportsbook has the Wild priced at -123 as of this post.
However, if I believed that line movement always dictated the victor I'd be a fool. A real hoser!
Over 3 1/2 Runs
Despite all the Under stats, both teams have too many good hitters. Off of RHP the Tigers hit about .270, while the Orioles smash .250. I just can not see a pitcher's duel.
And I think at least one of these pitchers will be a touch shaky...sort of like the Pirates' Volquez when it mattered last night. My guess as to the Shakiest Gun In The West (pardon the Don Knotts reference) would be the O's Tillman.
Just a researched hunch. Tail responsibly.
I have no idea how footie coaches plan ahead for red cards, but I hope Sevilla still plays to win.
If I were coaching, I'd do my best to train my players to flop big time until we get the equalizer red card.