I haven't been betting tennis that long, but something caught my eye and I was hoping for some input since many of you have been betting tennis for a long time.
What I noticed was that a lot of the time the over/under lines don't change a lot even when there is a big fave compares to a match that is considered a toss-up.
For example, today at my book I have:
Pennetta +104 vs. Wazniackia -113
Over 22.5 -110
Under 22.5 -106
Querrey -316 vs. Acasuso +285
Over 22.5 +100
Under 22.5 -116
Verdasco -310 vs. Andreev +279
Over 22.5 -109
Under 22.5 -107
The first match is nearly a toss-up, while the 2nd and 3rd have very large faves. However, all the Over/Unders are at 22.5 and there isn't a significant difference in the juice.
This would suggest to me that it might be profitable to look at the "Over" in matches that are considered toss-ups and look at the "Under" in matches with a large fave.
I know this is nothing groundbreaking, but I really thought that in matches with two evenly matched players you would see a much higher Over/Under than you would in matches where one player is considered significantly better.....after all, you would think a 50/50 match would have a much better chance at going to 3 sets than a match in which there is a large fave. It really surprised me that the lines do not suggest this.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?