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06/01/11	2011 LiveFree Documented Plays	LiveFreeOrDie	3
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LiveFreeOrDie says:

12/01/2008 12:58 PM

I handicap using a combination of technical and fundamental factors, analogous to how some investors analyze the stock market. For my definition, fundamental factors are those relating to the play of the game itself (how strong is the defense, who is injured, how motivated is each team). Technical factors are those pertaining to odds, money movement and line movement, totally irrespective of the game. A handicapper who goes solely by technical factors, can bet any sport, without knowing a single thing about the players or game.

The fundamental strategies I use for baseball and football are based on an analysis of the core elements of the game (ie pitch-by-pitch in baseball and play-by-play in football). For basketball, my main angles for fundamentals involve injuries. I also use technical factors in my analysis for all three sports.

In general, in order to come away with a profit, one needs to win 52.4% of their single plays at a -110 juice. I only bet linked parlays (ie Side and Total of the same game). The reason for this is that parlay odds carry with them a higher house edge than straight bets. However, there may be some scenarios where the outcome of the side...

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LiveFreeOrDie says:

12/01/2008 12:55 PM

...is not independent of the outcome of the totals. Example: Team A is more likely to cover if it is a high-scoring game. Team B is more likely to cover if it is a low-scoring game.

I unite these principles with shopping for the best line across multiple shops, with Matchbook being the favored locale.

I name all my posts "LiveFree Documented Plays" so that you can independently verify my results. I post plays whenever I have time and access as an experiment to offer evidence that is IS possible to grind out a profit handicapping sports and still having fun with it!

On a personal note, I am a devout Libertarian. I believe in the fundamental right of every person to do as he/she wishes (gamble, drink, have sex, do drugs) as long as it does not infringe on the rights of others. I believe the role of government role is to enforce laws and contracts. That's about it. I disagree strongly with nanny-state politics which essentially steal money from some people to redistribute it to others without creating any net gain in goods or services. If you want to expand your world view, check out LIBERTARIANISM by David Boaz.

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Posted Tuesday, March 10, 2009 12:44 PM

Matchbook to PAY YOU JUICE instead of CHARGING JUICE

This is just amazing:

A FAREWELL TO 2% COMMISSIONS
	Next week, Matchbook will dramatically cut commissions by eliminating our 2% net-win commission system and shifting to a much simpler volume-based one. Matchbook won't earn as much per trade, but we believe this change will drive the next phase of growth on the exchange.

HOW IT WORKS
	The new system is based on bet size, regardless of whether your trade wins or loses. If you accept an offer, the fee is 1.0%. If you post an offer that is accepted, not only is there no fee, but Matchbook will pay you 0.2%. As demonstrated lately on many financial exchanges, liquidity explodes when people are paid to make offers.

HOW WE CALCULATE THE RATE
	Commission rates of 1.0% or -0.2% will be applied to the lesser of your "bet" or "to win" amount. So regardless of whether you bet $1,000 to win $5,000, or $5,000 to win $1,000, your bet size is treated as only $1,000. In both cases, you pay $10 in commissions if you accept an offer, or you are paid $2 if your offer is accepted.

WHO THIS HELPS
	Pretty much everyone. To start with, 1% on volume costs less than 2% net-win because of the generous way we define your bet size (see above). If you post offers, the savings are obviously far greater. And with everyone incentivized to post offers, we expect to see much tighter, deeper markets across the board.

WHO THIS HURTS
	Because we charge based on volume instead of net win, scalpers will need to pay more to accept offers on both sides of the same market. Of course, they can still trade across markets at far lower cost than before by taking advantage of our offer-side subsidy.

FUTURES MARKETS AND BASEBALL
	Any long-term markets currently underway will remain on the old net-win system until expiry. All new long-term markets will be volume-based as soon as they are loaded. Baseball will continue to be offered at a discount.

FEEDBACK
	We anticipate fine-tuning the rates for specific sports and market types as we go forward. Any such changes will be announced in advance on the website. In the meantime, please send your thoughts on the new commission system to: ideas@matchbook.com.

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Matchbook to PAY YOU JUICE instead of CHARGING JUICE