My work blocked covers for the first 3 weeks of the season and I have had some other issues going on as well...no big deal because week 4 is where we get the money anyway. I have a bet with my buddies in which we bet every game so I will post those pics tomorrow and also my top 5 plays with analysis.
I like this game to be a tight game, I see no way SC runs away with this game unless the flu is still affecting the rebels or they cough the ball up a couple times in key situations but I think they have gotten their fumbles out of the way already this year (4 total and 3 of which were lost). SC comes in riding a nice offensive streak their past two games and Garcia is really chucking the ball around. SC solidified their kickoff return coverage last week and contained ole miss last year so I do not see much of a special teams edge for either team in this game. The edge I see in this game is the rebel defense against the cocks offense. If SC wants to keep the ball out of Sneads hands they will look to control the time of possession and milk the clock with the run. Ole Miss is allowing 3.1 yards a carry and held SC in check last year on the ground. If SC decides to air it out with Ole Miss the game will look much like the Georgia game and this favors Ole Miss. In addition Garcia has been prone to tossing INTs (6td - 8ints last year; 3tds - 2ints this year) and I see him throwing at least two more tonight and that will be the deciding factor in the game. I do think this game will be tight but I like a 6-10 point Ole Miss Victory as SC loses another heart breaker against a top 5 team.
Also watch out for the fun and gun mastermind to bring back some of his trick plays to keep this game close.
Bet - Ole Miss - 4
Good Luck
LocksvilleUSA
JULY 9th 2009
All plays are 1 unit.
CIN +133
LAD @ NYM - Over 9
ATL +116
FLA - 106
NYY - Even
CLE +115
CLE @ CHW - Over 10.5
Waiting on umps for my over leans on atl-col, fla-ari, and sd - sf.
I had some extra time during baseball season and since its still a little too early to start capping the NFL because of upcoming roster changes I decided to go through the past two seasons of the CFL and create a system based on points scored h/a and teams opponents points scored h/a. I then used a linear regression analysis using the past seasons data and in 2007 and 2008 combined the system would have hit at 13-2 betting sides and totals through the first 3 weeks. From there I am still working on integrating the past seasons stats and the new seasons stats and I have not created anything with a decisive advantage yet but I still have some time before week 4. Below are my picks for week one and good luck.
Hamilton @ -2
Toronto – Hamilton – Over 51.5
Saskatchewan @ +1
BC @ Saskatchewan – Over 48.5
LocksvilleUSA
First full week of the system starts today...so far the totals have hit at 20-13-2...two of those loses were formula errors I have since corrected. Also yester day my system went 10-5 (5-2 on underdogs) up 5.26 units for side so I will post those plays as well:
Overs:
COL @ LAA - 9
CHI C @ Braves - 7.5
Under:
SF @ OAK - 8.5
Sides:
STL -105
LAA -110
OAK -147
ATL -148
I have been using this site for a while and gambling for the past 3 years. I went about 54% in college football betting every game and I have had ups and downs in baseball but overall I am up but that really doesn't mean to much to anybody. I am starting this post to publicly track a system I have created. Thoughout the next month I will post my plays everyday and also make changes to the system as I see fit. If you are wondering my system uses the Base Runs formula and also factors in Weather, Stadium, Righty/Lefty, and Umpires. Each play will be 1 unit and I am getting my lines from sportsbetting.com
June 17, 2009:
Arizona @ KC - under 7.5 @ -105 - 1 unit to win .952 units
NY Mets @ Baltimore - under 11 @ -120 - 1unit to win .833 units
Good Luck
LocksvilleUSA