Sorry - first game of the entire season since wk 1 no write-up on the game - running out of time ....But let's be serious - at this point it does not matter....You guys have all made up your mind.
For the record
GL ......and once again Happy New Yr to all
HAPPY NEW YEAR everybody Sincere best wishes for a healthy and happy 2015.
0-1 yesterday. 6-4 bowls.
Much like yesterday when a lot of sharp guys had the GT game nailed and we #shitthebedbigtime.....We see a lot of very smart cappers going the opposite way of us again ....Read away....fade away if necessary.....GL to all !
Michigan St +3 -127
mega line pk em
sagarin pk em
1. We think there is some perceived value getting 2.5/3 points.
2. Both teams on paper played similar schedules in terms of difficulty - Mich St ranked 59....Baylor 64......Mich St lost to two teams in the 4 team playoff - Baylor lost one game and that was to a team that showed how good they are yesterday......The one thing we will note is that Mich St had problems vs excellent mobile QBs - and while Petty is good - Mich St should not have to worry too much about excellent mobility and that is a huge factor IMO.
3. Mich St has the better D; and while Baylor will move the ball no doubt about that - what about Mich St vs Baylor D? Mich St has the best offense in recent memory - excellent QB play and very good running game.
4. Baylor very good in turnover margin....but Mich St is ranked #1 do not think Mich St will be giving them anything for free. 6 int for cook all yr.
5. Baylor #124 penalty yds - You do not wanna give Mich St any free yards or takeaway big plays of your own in a game like this.
6. Mich St #1 in time of possession.....Seeing as anyone with an offensive pulse moved the ball on Baylor - this could be a frustrating game for them.
7. Mich St 3-0 last 3 bowl games - all outright wins as dogs.
GL guys ....totally get it that Baylor could truck them. Gonna give Sparty a shot.
Best wishes for 2015 for all our dedicated subscribers
Thanks for all the banter and discussion during 2014. It is much appreciated.
So far good start to the bowls 6-3; ND burned me yesterday what an impressive showing by those guys and we were a bit worried about the unknown QB and coaching prowess of Kelly. A job well done and ND fans should be looking forward to the future with that guy at QB in my early estimation. We still love ourselves some LSU tho can't wait to see Fournette dominate next yr.
Today ? Will have 2 leans and one #steamlockpounder
Looked at this game for a while last night. On the one hand - you have the team that has scored 30+ points in EVERY game this yr - say what you want - that is impressive - AND they have a chip on their shoulder (maybe?) to prove they should have been in the 4 team playoff.....On the other hand - you have the #1 scoring D in the NCAA - not as impressive later in the yr - but they are still a force....And they go against a TCU team that has not faced a D near this caliber yet....AND the Big12 has #shitthebedbigtime so far in bowl games - which may mean squat - but it surely has to make you wonder just a bit.
So what do we do? Well as you know with our annoying 2 page write-ups - we put down our thoughts and try to come up with something - or at the very least - help the young Sparkies out there make a decision on their picks. For our money - just too much uncertainty to put a full unit on this one so just going with a lean on this one.
lean - TCU team total under 30.5 (Bet 365)..........We see mostly 29/29.5 out there - Bet 365 actually has 30.5 and 24.5 with a spread of TCU -3.5.
Now this is no gimme - like we said TCU has scored 30 in every game this yr. But Ole Miss has only given up 14ish/game so think TCU may be in for a bit of culture shock in this yr. Then again - maybe not. Just an action play on this one.....Ole Miss did give up 35 to Auburn - probably similar in explosiveness to TCU.....gave up 30 to Arkansas (turned it over 6 times tho)....over 440Y to Miss St......Gonna just hope for a good game and hope that the Ole Miss D shows up with a chip on THEIR shoulder with something to prove as an underdog in this one and with Ole Miss missing some weapons on offense.
GL to all....mega
Had some awesome family time now ready to continue our bowl game domination with the overuse of CAPITAL LETTERS....FALSE CLAIMS.....LOOSE WOMEN.....GOAT PORN....and INDUSTRY LEADING RESEARCH....
Today's games will be up within a couple hours.
Hope everyone is doing well
Good start to the bowl season on Saturday. Felt good to get things going - We might me in the minority but look forward to all of them even the crapfests Our fav so far was watching AF get the job done again just love those guys.
Jerk the Gherkin Acura iPhone Miami Beach Bowl
A tough game to get a handle on. BYU has had to deal with a lot of injuries including two huge ones to their stud QB and RB. They did pretty well all things considered finishing 8-4 and the 4 losses all came strung together after QB got hurt and were all against decent team - utah st ucf nevada and boise. Now it may sound crazy - but we put Memphis on par with ucf - better than nevada - and probably a bit worse than utah st or boise but would still give them a game. Just hard to get a read on BYU. They have turned into a pretty good passing team right now with a suspect D. Not the BYU squad you typically see. We completed our analysis and came up with Memphis due to the following.....all factors together point toward a cover - but as always - you just never know
Probably a good time for a reminder for the young Sparkies out there. 1. Tail only if you agree with the analysis. 2. Even if you agree bet 3% of bankroll max on any one play do not bet like a crackhead on tilt.
1. Motivation. In THEORY only - Memphis should want this one more. Huge turnaround and an unthinkable opportunity to get a 10 win season. If you told BYU before the season they would end up playing Memphis in a 7th tier bowl game on a monday afternoon - do not think they would be too jacked. MEGALOCKS intrepid staff members also did some reading how BYU HC caused a stir by saying memphis thinks they have it in the bag; This was followed up by BYU QB saying - in a nutshell - that they do everything better than Memphis and should score on every possession. Now don't go postal on us - this probably all means nothing just found it interesting and kinda funny.
2. Gonna stick with our theme that has worked so far - although we will say every game is different. Better D ? Memphis and it is not close. Stats wise and eye test. Memphis DL vs BYU OL will be a tough matchup for BYU similar to Utah vs Col St IMO. BYU near the bottom of FBS in sacks/game allowed - almost 3. BYU QB can sling it - not mobile tho - and that is gonna make it easier for memphis to dial him in. See some big plays from BYU but more than a few 3/outs - #110 in time of possession.
3. Memphis is also hot; Won 6 straight - QB has thrown 0 int in those wins; Now they were against creampuffs that is for sure - but never bad to reel off a bunch of wins. And they did play a good game vs UCLA, drilled cincy on the road (QB hurt) and held their own at Ole Miss all things considered. So while BYU has played consistently tougher competition - Memphis does show pedigree to handle a team like BYU who is not as healthy as they would like.
4. Memphis #10 in pass eff D