Hope everyone's new yr off to a great start
Some wild bowl games starting jan 1 - definitely made this bowl season well worth it....Bittersweet tonight - only 3rd time in about 10 yrs wont be at the game.....Great matchup too.
struggling around the .500 mark for the bowls.....tread lightly
ohio st -2.5
Plenty of good analysis on the game out there.....We are not fading Clemson per say - just going with the Buckeyes....Better HC.>>>Lost one game in 2 yrs and Urban Legend is great in bowl games think he has only lost 1......Now the argument can be made about who played who - but statistically - ohio st runs the ball better and stops the run better - will have a big rushing edge tonight IMO and Miller makes more plays with his feet tonight to drive them nuts.
GL to all - MEGA
Once again - HAPPY NEW YR - and best wishes from our seriously disturbed staff to you and yours
Still trying to claw our way over .500. 1-2 yesterday......should have 3-4 picks today.
UNLV Team Total under 23.5
North Texas has given up 7 13 14 16 7 21 10 last 7 games ....D ranked 26....run D 19....Scoring D 8.....Red Zone D #1 in NCAA allowing TDs less than half the time in red zone....Also think they can win time of possession big time in this one - UNLV run D ranked 109 giving up over 5/carry. Think UNLV finds it tough sledding here.....Statistically they have faced only 2 top 50 Ds....NT is the 2nd best they have faced.
The last game loss to Penn St gives us value IMO....Before that only losses - close one at Az St in fix of the decade - and 7 another close one to Ohio St.....Funny thing - did not come to play mentally in penn st game but still had 27-13 FD edge.....Before that game had given up only 1 play the entire yr over 51 yds....8th ranked rushing team with a bunch of beasts and great OL....D is 5 in RZ 5 vs Run 6 in pass eff D 3 in RZ D and 6 overall....Off 3 Rose Bowl losses think that this breath of fresh air will be great for Badgers.....SC no slouch - just gonna go with running team and better D although no doubt you could say SC D might be better on paper...SC lost 3 str BG before winning last 2.....They have struggled against good Ds this yr - crap for 3Q vs Mizz....scored less than 20 vs Florida....No doubt Ball Coach will manufacture a trick play or 7 - but gonna go with our man crush on Badgers
So far not horrible.
- buff TT over (L)
- Utah St under (W)
Small cash degen action bets
- EC TT over (L)
- Fresno TT under (W)
- Col St TT over (W)
- Pitt over (W)
- Oregon St (W)
Decent reads on some games - bad on others. Let's try and do better this wk
First of all - Best wishes for the holiday season to all forum sickos - regardless of how you / if you celebrate it Been a lot of fun this yr. Hoping the bowl season treats us to some good ones.
Instead of a different thread for each bowl game - or one huge ridiculous thread for all games - gonna try it this way. Say 6-10 games at a time. Hopefully easier for people to navigate.
GL to all mega
Back from Vegas and the MEGALOCKS staff and affiliates had some nice tickee tickee and won some cashola in the golf tournamentThe seats in the Bellagio Race and Sports Book were quite worn out by the time we left.
29-17 so far this yr (63%). One of our better years and not a ton of plays but analyzed everything hard core every week and let the jooocy ones bubble to the top. Next yr could suck but we feel our new and improved process will keep us on track.
Plan to analyze all the games this wk. As per usual - always include thoughts so you can follow or fade as you wish. Lines look pretty tight but hope to find 1-2 good ones. And probably 2-5 small plays for degen action
Louisville -3.5 Cincy
Should be a great one. We have the fair line at pick em or Louisville -1 at the most so a bit of perceived value on Cincy....Both teams very similar in our view - efficient offenses - very good Ds - L is #2 and Cincy #8....however cincy seems to be clicking on offense better right now and overall have been a better ATS play this yr - covering 4L5 while L has failed to cover 6L7....Also cincy has won the last 5 str vs L....cincy has outgained their last 2 opp on the road 619-357 and 573-278 while QB Kay has thrown for 6 td 2 int and almost 800Y....Meanwhile Teddy L3G at QB for L has 220 1-0 203 0-0 and 288 1-1 L3G....Cincy has done a mildly bit better against some common opponents - Rutgers Houston Memphis with all 3 being on the road while L played those 3 teams at home....cincy had a stinker loss to S Flo but no Def TD allowed....L lost a tough one to UCF.....Louisville adv - slight to QB protecting the ball - and overall do a better job protecting the ball....However - as tje case above suggests - we see a bit of value and will play Cincy for small degen cash - would want closer to 7 to play fullunit
small degen cash burning action
- cincy +3.5