Back from Vegas and the MEGALOCKS staff and affiliates had some nice tickee tickee and won some cashola in the golf tournamentThe seats in the Bellagio Race and Sports Book were quite worn out by the time we left.
29-17 so far this yr (63%). One of our better years and not a ton of plays but analyzed everything hard core every week and let the jooocy ones bubble to the top. Next yr could suck but we feel our new and improved process will keep us on track.
Plan to analyze all the games this wk. As per usual - always include thoughts so you can follow or fade as you wish. Lines look pretty tight but hope to find 1-2 good ones. And probably 2-5 small plays for degen action
Louisville -3.5 Cincy
Should be a great one. We have the fair line at pick em or Louisville -1 at the most so a bit of perceived value on Cincy....Both teams very similar in our view - efficient offenses - very good Ds - L is #2 and Cincy #8....however cincy seems to be clicking on offense better right now and overall have been a better ATS play this yr - covering 4L5 while L has failed to cover 6L7....Also cincy has won the last 5 str vs L....cincy has outgained their last 2 opp on the road 619-357 and 573-278 while QB Kay has thrown for 6 td 2 int and almost 800Y....Meanwhile Teddy L3G at QB for L has 220 1-0 203 0-0 and 288 1-1 L3G....Cincy has done a mildly bit better against some common opponents - Rutgers Houston Memphis with all 3 being on the road while L played those 3 teams at home....cincy had a stinker loss to S Flo but no Def TD allowed....L lost a tough one to UCF.....Louisville adv - slight to QB protecting the ball - and overall do a better job protecting the ball....However - as tje case above suggests - we see a bit of value and will play Cincy for small degen cash - would want closer to 7 to play fullunit
small degen cash burning action
- cincy +3.5
What a week of fantastic finishes. Most exciting week of the year potentially. Auburn game. Michigan game ending. UCF game ending. Baylor fireworks. Ended with a fun USC/Stanford SNOT BUBBLER....A Saturday that always makes us remember why NCAA football is the best.
Sadly - the picks were 0-2 Here is a different take on the Auburn game from a guy who had Georgia. WHATEVER. I mean I lost a good chunk on that last play but I will ALWAYS remember that play and how incredible it was. The cash will come back. That was a fantastic play and why I NEVER shut the game off until the clock is 0:00. Auburn was the better team and to me over the course of the game. But it could have gone either way. Now we are not one of the Covers guys that says "oh we bought off our Georgia pick and took Auburn!!! sorry losers !" or "we got Georgia +5.5 on Sunday !! 109 units !!" We lost. And Hawaii over? Well sadly we recorded the game and watched it. NO WAY that game was going over so it was a bad pick. Yes - a Hawaii TD in OT would have made over 58 a winner - but there was essentially no red zone play until OT - a couple of broken play TDs - but any number over 55 was too much IMO. Lesson learned. Its always ok to admit when you SUCK. Last wk was not good and the leans were garbage as well. Its ok - just one week and we absolutely bet smart and didn't chase so now we move on to week 13. 28-17 YTD which is good for us.
OFF TO VEGAS this FRIDAY for DEGENERACY UNLIMITED and an attempt to avenge our decimal point loss for 1st place in the EPIC VEGAS GOLF tournament. We will bring our A game - and FOOT WEDGES to get out of tight spots.
Wont have time for a ton of write-ups - will do our best.
GL freaks ....MEGA
2-0 last wk overall total up to 28-15 on the yr hope to finish strong. Scary looking card - it looks like there are 6-7 huge "value" plays but last time we saw that we got buried but gonna continue to take our best plays and see what the hell happens.
hope you guys are enjoying the season - setting up to be an epic final month or so before bowl season....We don't think Bama gets enough credit for week in and week out no matter who they play just taking care of business. One of the most underrated 2-3 yr runs in our opinion but don't wanna turn this into a soap opera thread just think they are awesome (no homo).
As we said about a month ago - there is a very deep roster of very talented cappers on here Sadly - still a lot of misleading BS that makes us want to puke at times but over our decade here - we have noticed that the Covers Nation always smokes it out eventually.
Random thoughts on games for your reading pleasure or pain - and hopefully you can help smoke out some wins for us
BG 10 Ohio (49)
we have the line at 7....Sag at 8.5ish....line makes sense given ohio got blown out in a fix that would make W Kentucky and Hawaii blush.....Super strong under trends for both teams at play but line seems about right would get interested in the 50s....A bit of perceived value in BG but not gonna back Ohio given their D is much worse and they do not take care of the ball - 81 in t/o margin and BG #26...BG #2 in RZ D as well.....can see a 7 pt BG lead into the 4Q then a random play determining the cover.
no opinion as of now......slight lean to dog and under
Hope everyone is doing well. Back safe from trip to Chicago. Last 4 meals - still trying to digest........Deep dish pizza....old school Italian...Steakhouse....authentic Cajun..........3-0 in the picks last wk...26-15 for the yr. Let's get some analysis going - as usual will try and post thoughts on as many games as possible....goal is to give you info to make your own decisions - a couple of picks to tail if you feel lucky
MACtion Tuesday "Where the mafia is in the huddle on every play"
BG 23.5 Miami Oh (46)
Miami gonna start a new qb this wk with Boucher toast...Something named Kummer may get the start - no relation to the pizza boy in Lunch Wagon Women....we have the fair line closer to 17 - Sag at 23ish.....statistically M is bad 122O and 112D...having a lot of trouble scoring...They do take care of the ball and not many penalties...thats all we can say....also 9-4L13 ATS in the series....BG looks pretty good again this yr but the D not the brick wall of last yr...almost beat Miss St - lost by 1 which is a good effort....No glaring weakness but not sure their O is strong enough to just streamroll someone with no resistance....Wildcard is the new QB for Miami - NEVER underestimate what this can do for a team - look at S Flo vs houston - once Temple got the new QB going....obviously wont win but we can see a 17-30 pt game heading to 4Q...give BG at slightly more than 50-50 shot to cover - actually leaning slightly to dog - looking for 24 pts....all angles and stats point under but the total of 46 tooooo low for our health.
Ball 19.5 Chips (58)
total looks about right....Ball is very very explosive and on paper should win by 21+....8-2L10Conf games...They take care of the ball....We have fair line closer to 17...Sag at 19ish....Heres the thing....Ball has NIU on deck...CMich has had TWO weeks off and while they may be #extrashitty we think that could be a good thing for a potential SHOCK THE WORLD treatment for at least a half - maybe enough to get a cover....QB Rush has played ok - but 10 int...Word is Kater may get start? Need to read more but it wont matter - either look serviceable and they will rely on Lavvvallliiii at RB 758Y rushing and Ball run D suspect.....Chips 5-13L18 away ATS is barf....Small degen play on CM....They ran the table last yr late to get to and then win a bowl - expect a good effort - waiting for 20-21
On way back from Chicago. Love this place.
0-2 key plays last wk. 23-13 YTD. Leans 3-1 last wk.
As usual will post thoughts on as many games as possible. GL
Play 1. ULM +3.5
ULM got vet QB Browning back last wk and he was 21-30 4 TD and no picks. 11-53 rushing. They have won 2 str and can still win the conference. They are 9-3L12 away and 6-2L8 ats vs Troy. Their pass eff D ranked 27 matches up well vs Troy. Troy D is brutal. They are 1-6-2L9 conf ats. ULL on deck. Statistically both teams turn it over a ton but with Browning back this will change. ULM better in return game and on 4d D. Team peaking at right time.