Bellator 82 Tale of the Tape: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) vs. Tony Hervey (+325)

Event: Bellator 82
Matchup: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) vs. Tony Hervey (+325)
Location: Soaring Eagle Casino and Resort in Mt. Pleasant, Michigan; Time: 8 p.m. (ET)
How to watch: Spike.com, MTV2

TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE

Name: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525)
MMA Record: 20-1
Bellator Record: 0-1
Age: 23
Nationality: Russian
W – Len Bentley (SUB), W – Sergio Cortez (SUB), W – Thomas Deak (UD)
Notable Career Wins: Doug Evans (SUB)
Notable Career Losses: Rich Clementi (SD)
Notable Career Achievements: None
Keys to Victory: Take the fight to the ground, go for submissions, avoid Hervey’s power shots

TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG

Name: Tony Hervey (+325)
MMA Record: 15-12
Bellator Record: 0-1
Age: 26
Nationality: American
BET

Fight Breakdown: Alexander Sarnavskiy was the No. 1 lightweight prospect in the world, and Bellator had high hopes of him winning their latest 155-pound tournament. But after being outgrappled and losing a split decision to Rich Clementi – the first loss of his young career – Sarnavskiy needs to get back on track and prove why he’s so highly thought of. Despite the loss, the youngster is still a dangerous fighter, as he has vicious striking as well as submissions for days, backed up by his 17 stoppage victories. He’s a talented guy and has an opportunity to get back on the proverbial horse by taking out a relatively tough guy in Tony Hervey.

Hervey is a decent fighter who possesses solid power in his strikers (11 of his 15 wins have come via TKO/KO) and submission ability (his other four wins have come via tapout for a 100 percent finishing ratio), but his biggest problem is he’s very beatable. With a 15-12 record, Hervey is clearly an inconsistent fighter, and the fact five of those losses came via sub and six by decision is especially worrisome against Sarnavskiy. One thing that Hervey does have going for him is that he’s faced much higher-level opponents than Sarnavskiy, but for the most part he’s suffered losses against them. Against Sarnavskiy, his best chance of winning will definitely be the knockout, but considering the Russian has never been knocked out before, that’s a tall task.

Fight Prediction: Tony Hervey will try and throw the thunder at Alexander Sarnavskiy, but the Russian will be able to get a takedown at some point and finish off the American by submission. This isn’t a gimme by any means, but Bellator definitely wants to get Sarnavskiy on a winning streak, and Hervey is a decent name to add to his resume in what should be a bounce-back victory for him after the Rich Clementi debacle.

Adam’s Pick: Alexander Sarnavskiy (-525) but make sure to check the latest MMA odds.

Adam’s Recommended Play: After Sarnavskiy’s loss to Clementi, you shouldn’t bet him at -525. Pass on this fight.

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UFC on FOX 6 Opening Odds: Light Heavyweights Glover Teixeira (-245) vs. Quinton Jackson (+185)

UFC on FOX 6:  January 26, 2013 Chicago, Illinois

UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Glover Teixeira (-245)Profile: When people talk about the next big thing at light heavyweight in the UFC, the names Alexander Gustafsson and Glover Teixeira (19-2) come up every time. The 33-year-old monster trains out of the famed Pit, where such notable fighters as Tim Kennedy, Bobby Southworth, Tito Ortiz and Chuck Liddell have learned their craft over the years. With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and fists that have delivered him 11 knockouts in his 18 wins, Teixeira is the real deal and can bring the fight anywhere. He is currently on a 17-fight winning streak and garnering increased attention as a true contender in the suddenly-murky UFC light heavyweight division following dominant wins over Kyle Kingsbury (arm-triangle choke submission) and Fabio Maldonado (TKO) in his first two fights within the organization.

UFC Light Heavyweight Contender Quinton Jackson (+185)Profile: Former light heavyweight champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson (32-10) is nearing the end of his career with what he has said will be his last fight in the UFC on deck, but there is still some fight in the brawler. Jackson has not seen the win column since May of 2011 when he earned a unanimous decision against Matt Hamill, and although 34-year-old looked as good as he has in years in his title fight against light heavyweight champoin Jon Jones, he was still defeated handily. Couple that with Jackson demanding a fight in Japan at UFC 144, and then missing weight for it and being handled by Ryan Bader, and it looks like he will have only his heavy hands to rely on for a victory moving forward.

Opening UFC on FOX 6 Odds Analysis: MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas made Teixeira a solid -245 favorite (bet $245 to win $100) while Jackson opened as a +185 underdog (bet $100 to win $185) according to the MMA odds. This matchup was originally scheduled for UFC 153 in Brazil, but Jackson pulled out due to injury. That would have certainly given Teixeira a home country edge, and instead he pummeled fellow Brazilian Maldonado. Teixeira’s 17-fight winning streak is somewhat impressive, but he has yet to fight someone of Jackson’s caliber even if he is on the downside of his career. This should be a good test for him to prove he belongs among the elite light heavyweights in the UFC. Despite his two-fight skid, Jackson is still ranked in the Top 10 among 205-pounders in the MMAOB MMA Fighter Rankings while Teixeira is just outside. Of course that could change if Teixeira wins as expected, but Jackson does have a puncher’s chance because of his ability to KO opponents. Jackson’s last KO came against Wanderlei Silva nearly four years ago at UFC 92, so he may go all out in what could be his last fight inside the Octagon with his contract due to expire.

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MMA Betting Preview: Cage Warriors 49 Odds Breakdown 

Date: Saturday, October 28
Location: Cadiff, Wales, U.K.
How to Watch: Preliminary card streams on Facebook.com at 2:30 p.m. (ET),
main card streams on MMAjunkie.com at 4 p.m.

The U.K.’s premier MMA organization stages its 49th event on Saturday as Cage Warriors is back for what should be another entertaining show. In the main event of the evening, Brazilian welterweight Bruno Carvalho squares off against Ireland’s Cathal Pendred. Carvalho opened as a -240 favorite (bet $240 to win $100) while Pendred is a +180 underdog (bet $100 to win $180) according to the MMA odds. The 30-year old Carvalho enters the contest with a 14-5 record and holds a notable submission win over TUF vet Kyacey Uscola. He has been on a roll, winning nine of his last 10 fights, save a KO loss to Marius Zaromskis (via summersault kick). He is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and has five submission wins to his name, and he’s also a black belt in judo, so Pendred is going to have his hands full. The 25-year-old Irishman enters with a 10-2-1 record, including five wins via knockout. He’s also on a roll, having gone undefeated in his last five outings, including a notable decision win over UFC vet David Bielkheden. There’s no doubt Pendred is going to be looking to keep this fight standing and knock out Carvalho, but the question is if he can stop Carvalho’s takedown attempts, not to mention Carvalho has underrated striking, as demonstrated by his five TKO/KO wins. This is one of the better fights in MMA this weekend.

In the co-main event, lightweight Greg Loughran squares off with Tim Newman. Newman opened as a -165 favorite while the comeback on Loughran is +135. Newman carries an 8-3 record into the bout with two wins via TKO/KO and three via submission, including a sub of TUF alum Aaron Wilkinson. However, the 29-year-old Newman has been inactive for quite a while, having not fought since a loss to former UFC fighter Curt Warburton last December, and cage rust may play a factor here. Loughran enters the bout at 22-18, including seven wins by knockout and 13 by submission, and holds notable victories over Jonathan Brookins, Norman Parke, and Andre Winner. The 29-year-old’s biggest problem though is inconsistency, as before he was on his current four-fight winning streak, he was on a six-fight losing streak. He’s also been submitted 10 times in his career and has been knocked out three times, although one of those sub losses was to Eddie Alvarez at Bellator 1, so Loughran clearly has the experience factor going in his favor. My gut feeling tells me someone is getting submitted in this fight.

Next up is a middleweight contest between Faycal Hucin and John Michael Shiel. Shiel enters as a -280 favourite, while Hucin is a +210 underdog. Shiel is undefeated at 8-0 with six of those victories coming by way of knockout and two by submission, and holds a notable victory over TUF veteran Ross Pointon. The 24-year-old Hucin comes in at 7-3, including one win via T/KO and three via submission. Hucin was knocked out by a punch in his very first MMA bout, so keep that in mind as he matches up with the heavy-handed Shiel.

Merv Mulholland and Daniel Thomas then tango in a lightweight affair. The line opened as a pick ‘em, with both fighters -120. Mulholland is 9-4 in his career, with all via by finish (three knockouts, six submissions). However, in his losses he has been submitted once and knocked out twice, including a notable TKO loss to the aforementioned Pendred, and keep in mind he hasn’t competed since September 2011. Thomas, on the other hand, enters the bout at 19-8-1, and he has five wins by knockout and 14 via submission, including a notable sub win over the aforementioned Wilkinson. He has also been finished six times, four times via TKO/KO and twice via submission, and in his last four fights is only 1-2-1 with both losses coming via knockout. There’s a reason this fight is a toss-up because it could go either way.

Next is a lightweight contest between Lew Long (-350) and Paul Redmond, who opened as a +250 underdog. Long is 6-1 in his career including three wins by submission and one by knockout, and he’s riding a four-fight winning streak. Meanwhile, Redmond comes in at 3-3, and although all three of his wins are by knockout, he’s also been knocked out once and submitted twice in his young career. It’s likely Long will look to get this fight to the ground and go for subs while Redmond will try and keep it standing and look for the knockout.

And finally, the opening bout is a bantamweight contest between Kris Edwards (-170) and Alan Philpott (+140). Edwards is 8-3 in his career with five submission wins and two knockouts to his credit, so he definitely has a solid ground game. It should be noted he was cutting to fight at flyweight until a late opponent switch meant that Philpott got the call on very short notice, as he actually competed just last week, winning 54 seconds into the first round over Rich Edgeworth. Philpott is 6-2 in his MMA career, and all six of his wins have come via submission, so it’s obvious he likes to drag the fight to the floor. This fight should end up on the mat, and it’s possible someone gets submitted to open Cage Warriors 49.

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MMA Betting Preview: MFC 35 Odds Breakdown MFC 35: Explosive Encounter takes place October 26 at Mayfield Trade Centre in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada and airs live in the U.S. on AXS TV at 10 p.m. (ET) and on tape delay in Canada on TSN 2. The main card features five bouts that have the potential to produce exciting finishes, including a title-fight headliner, and as always MMAOddsBreaker.com has you covered with the opening MMA odds.

In the main event of the evening, the MFC will crown a middleweight champion as the vacant title is on the line in a matchup between Joseph “Leonidas” Henle (8-0) and Elvis “The King” Mutapcic (11-2). MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has installed Henle as a -160 favorite (bet $160 to win $100) while Mutapcic comes in as the underdog at +130 (bet $100 to win $130). Henle was on Season 11 of The Ultimate Fighter and submitted Costas Philippou to get into the house but then lost a decision to Seth Baczynski in the first round. But that was an exhbition bout so he is still undefeated in his pro career, where he has four wins by submission and two via knockout, including a TKO of Luke Harris in his MFC debut to get this title shot. He trains out of Reign Training Center in California alongside Jake Ellenberger and Mark Munoz and seems to be improving every fight. At 29 years old, the gritty fighter nicknamed “Leonidas” is in the prime of his career. His opponent, Mutapcic, grew up in war-torn Bosnia before relocating to rough-and-tumble Des Moines, Iowa, so you know Mutapcic is tough as nails. The 26-year-old has six career wins via submission and four via knockout, including a notable KO of TUF winner Cezar Mutante Ferreira and a TKO of Jacen Flynn to earn his MFC title shot. The powerful Mutapcic is also known for his vicious leg kicks, and seems to really be hitting his stride. This fight, which is set for five rounds, will likely end in a finish.

The co-main event of the evening is a featherweight bout between Shane Nelson (15-6) and Graham Spencer (8-1). Kalikas has tabbed Nelson as a -210 favorite with Spencer a +160 underdog. Nelson is a veteran of the UFC and went 2-2 there including a decision over George Roop and a controversial TKO win over Aaron Riley. The 27-year-old also appeared on TUF 8, but he was eliminated with an opening round loss to eventual winner Efrain Escudero. He trains of out of B.J. Penn’s gym in Hawaii and really exemplifies the fighting spirit of the island, as he’s hard to stop, having only been finished in his last outing, a submission setback in Shooto. His opponent Spencer is the No. 1 featherweight prospect in Canada. He is a grinder who holds four wins via submission and four via decision, but none via knockout. The 27-year-old British Columbian – who will enjoy homefield advantage in this fight – also holds a notable victory over MFC lightweight contender Mukai Mamoro.

Up next is a middleweight bout between Sabah Fadai (6-2) and Cody Krahn (11-5). Fadai opened as a -205 favorite and Krahn a +155 underdog. Fadai is a very exciting fighter and boasts four wins via knockout, as well as two more by way of submission. However, since coming to the MFC, he is just 0-1 with one No-Contest, and the B.C. resident needs to prove on Friday that he can win when he steps up in competition. His opponent Krahn has 11 wins, of which the Edmonton native has eight submissions and three knockouts, including a notable TKO victory over Shannon Ritch. Like Fadai, Krahn hasn’t fared well in the MFC, going only 1-2 in the promotion, so with both men badly needing a win, this fight should end with someone getting either knocked out or submitted.

Following that matchup is a heavyweight contest that will see Ryan Fortin (6-3) square off against Smealinho Rama (4-0). Rama opened at -165 compared to Fortin at +135. The 20-year-old Rama only began competing in pro MMA this year, and he has already picked up two submissions and two knockouts, including a notable TKO victory over Lee Mein (father of Jordan Mein) at the last MFC event. It’s obvious the 260-pounder from Calgary has a ton of potential, and he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on. Like Rama, Fortin is a finisher with two wins via submission and four via knockout, including a notable TKO over UFC Hall of Famer Dan Severn. The 27-year-old Fortin, who also hails from Alberta, will hold a seven-inch height advantage over Rama (Fortin is 6-foot-6). Make no doubt about it, these big boys are going to bang, and someone is getting finished in this fight.

And finally, the first fight on the main card is a light heavyweight matchup of Paul Grandbois (4-4) vs. Jason Kuchera (5-5). Kuchera opened as a -230 favorite with Grandbois a +170 underdog. All of Kuchera’s five wins have come via TKO/KO, but he has been knocked out or submitted in all five of his losses, so he’s the kind of guy that lives by the sword, dies by the sword. The Edmonton native will also be dealing with cage rust in this fight, as he hasn’t competed since a 2010 TKO loss to former UFC fighter David Heath. Like Kuchera, Alberta’s Grandbois either finishes or gets finished, and he has four knockout victories to his credit, but has also been knocked out twice and submitted twice in his losses. Perhaps Grandbois’ biggest advantage will be that he’s fought six times since Kuchera last competed in MMA. Expect someone to get knocked out in this MFC 35 main card opener.

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Bellator 78 Tale of the Tape: Lyman Good (-500) vs. Michail Tsarev (+350) Oct 24, 2012

TALE OF THE TAPE: THE FAVORITE

Name: Lyman “Cyborg” Good (-500)
MMA Record: 13-2
Bellator FC Record: 6-2
Age: 27
Nationality: American
Height: 6-0
Weight: 170 pounds
Style: Karate/Ground and Pound
Camp: Team Tiger Schulman

Strengths: Championship Experience in Bellator, Size, Toughness, Knockout Power, Good At Fighting Off His Back
Weaknesses: Takedown Defence, Injuries
Last 5 Fights: W – Jim Wallhead (UD), W – LeVon Maynard (KO), L – Rick Hawn (SD), W – Chris Lozano (UD), L – Ben Askren (UD)
Notable Career Wins: Jim Wallhead (UD), Chris Lozano (UD)
Notable Career Losses: Ben Askren (UD), Rick Hawn (SD)
Notable Career Achievements: First-ever Bellator Welterweight Champion (zero successful title defences)
Keys to Victory: Stop the takedown, use size to control the fight, use the cage

TALE OF THE TAPE: THE UNDERDOG

Name: Michael “The Lonely Wolf” Tsarev (+350)
MMA Record: 24-2
Bellator Record: 1-0
Age: 26
Nationality: Russian
Height: 5-11
Weight: 170 pounds
Style: Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
Camp: RusFighters Sport Club

Strengths: Offensive BJJ (19 wins via submission), Improving Striking (two of three career T/KOs coming in last five bouts)
Weaknesses: Submission Defence (both career losses via submission)
Last 5 Fights: W – Tim Welch (SUB), W – Kyacey Uscola (SUB), W – Rasul Magamedov (SUB), W – Deyan Topakski (KO), W – Abdulsupyan Alikhanov (TKO)
Notable Career Wins: Kyacey Uscola (SUB)
Notable Career Losses: None
Notable Career Achievements: None
Keys to Victory: Get The takedown ASAP, don’t let Good bully him, be wild

FIGHT BREAKDOWN, PREDICTION, PICK & BET

Fight Breakdown: This Bellator Season 7 Welterweight Tournament semifinal fight between Lyman Good and Michail Tsarev will see the winner get the chance to compete for the Bellator Season 7 Welterweight Tournament title and a cheque for $100,000 against the winner of Marius Zaromkis vs. Andrey Koreshkov. Good decisioned Jim Wallhead to get this far in the tournament, while Tsarev submitted Tim Welch.

Good is the former Bellator World Welterweight Champion, so he knows what it takes to get his hand raised three times in three months and win a Bellator tournament. However, successfully running the gauntlet of Bellator has taken its toll on him, as he was out for a period of time last year with a hamstring injury, and has competed only five times in the last three years. He is under a lot of pressure to win not only this fight, but this tournament, as the Bellator welterweight division is becoming stacked, and he could get lost in the shuffle with another early semifinal exit.

Tsarev, on the other hand, is a hungry young fighter who really has nothing to lose in this fight, which makes him extremely dangerous. He has also been very active (seven fights in the last two years) in his seven-year career (he actually started his MMA career a few weeks before the “veteran” Good), so it will be interesting to see if activity and cage time will have any effect on this bout’s outcome.

Good is a very big 170-pounder and needs to use his size to bully the smaller Tsarev around the cage. He needs to make his presence as a Bellator staple known right off the bat, and make sure that Tsarev knows he’s in Good’s cage, not the other way around. If he can keep the fight standing, he has a good chance to throw his power shots at Tsarev, and while Good likely has an advantage on the feet, especially because of his knockout power, don’t sleep on Tsarev, who, while wild, looks to be improving in the striking department with two of his three career knockouts coming in his last five bouts. He also likes to finish fights quick, as 19 of his fights (17 of wins and two of his losses) have ended in the first round.

If this fight hits the ground, then Tsarev will be at a huge advantage, as 19 of his 23 wins have come via submission. Good, on the other hand, lost his Bellator world championship to Ben Askren because he was smothered on the ground. Against Tsarev, a guy who is constantly looking to pass guard or go for the back, that can only mean trouble, which is why Good needs to do everything he can to keep this fight standing, just like he did against judoka Jim Wallhead in his last outing.

Fight Prediction: The fight will be decided by the takedown. If Michail Tsarev is able to get Lyman Good to the mat, then he’ll have a good chance to submit him. However, it must be remembered that Good has only been taken down by Rick Hawn and Ben Askren, who are both very high-level grapplers. If this fight stays standing, expect Good to try and look for Tsarev’s chin, and if that’s not working, make it a dirty brawl by pushing him up against the cage. Also look for him to look to drag this fight into deep waters, as he’s proven he has the cardio to go the distance time and time again while Tsarev hasn’t. Good needs to make sure he doesn’t find himself in a grappling contest with Tsarev, as that can only end up badly for him, although it must be noted Good is by far the most talented opponent Tsarev’s ever fought.

Adam’s Pick: Lyman Good (-500) via unanimous decision

Adam’s Recommended Play: While I do favor Good due to his size, toughness and Bellator cage experience, I am not 100 percent confident he can stop the takedown and -500 is way too hefty of a price tag for him. Instead, strongly consider taking a look at Tsarev, who opened at +350, especially if he moves into the +400 range, as there may be some value in that line when you think about how well Russian prospects have been performing in the Bellator cage this season. In this particular instance, my recommended play is DOG OR PASS.

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