Posted Thursday, January 06, 2011 10:03 AMThe 2011 PGA Tour season tees off on Thursday last afternoon from the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, Hawaii for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. It is called the Tournament of Champions because it is an invite for 2010 PGA Tour winners only and even the $1.12 million winner’s check is not strong enough to lure everyone to paradise. Only 34 players are in the field this week with notable names Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy not part of it.
The new season is an early start right after the holidays so a lot of players extend their offseason instead of coming right out of the gates. Only one of the four Majors winners are teeing up this week as U.S. Open Champion Graeme McDowell is here. As for other European players who are not full time PGA Tour members, a lot of them prefer to play elsewhere and not use their limited visits here. Nonetheless, it is a strong field with a lot of big names for the 2011 opener.
The Plantation Course will play as a par-73, 7,411-yard test that uses elevation changes, doglegs and the ever-present winds. It is a very difficult test for the season’s first event because it is safe to say that most players are not at their best right now with a lot of rust needing to be shed. We have no current performances to go from so playing the hot players is not an option. Past performances on this course is the best bet if basing plays on any sort of successful history.
Two-time defending champion Geoff Ogilvy (+800) is in the field but will be a last minute scratch. He withdrew from Wednesday’s pro-am after he hurt his right index finger that required 12 stitches. He will hit his opening tee shot and then withdraw in order to collect $70,000.
Recommended Tournament Win Three Pack at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions (all for one unit)
Ernie Els (+1000) had a solid 2010 season and he is coming off a recent victory at the South African Open the week before Christmas, his fifth victory in that event. He won the Tournament of Champions in 2003 and he has placed in the top six five times.
We can expect a big year out of Adam Scott (+1000). He finally turned his game around last season and he is a recent winner at the European Tour’s Barclays Singapore Open in November. He has played here four times and finished in the top ten three times.
As for the longshot, we go with Charlie Hoffman (+4000). He has had a relatively long layoff it is unlikely any player will be at the top of his game. Hoffman finished T20 here in 2008, his only appearance at the Plantation Course so he has some positive experience.
Matt Fargo is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.
The holiday season is upon us and that mean it is time to put chestnuts on an open fire and sing songs that are supposed to make us feel warm and fuzzy.
Well, chestnuts are disgusting (try one) and I don’t sing. Hey I like Christmas as much as the next guy but when I went to Home Depot in mid-October and saw their tree displays already up, I almost lost it.
Instead let’s wish everyone a “Happy Festivus” just as Morty Seinfeld would have wanted it.
Take a seat next to the aluminum pole and listen to my airing of grievances.
Miami Heat
Is it me or does everyone else that watches ESPN find it overly annoying that every time there is a score change in a Miami Heat game, they need to update it on the ticker? Or every third time the NBA Scores come around they show just the Heat score and no others?
Memo to ESPN: Not everyone gives a shit about Miami and whether they win or lose.
The positive is that with all of this publicity, it gives us numerous opportunities to bet against the Heat as the public is buying into this nonsense.
Brett Favre
This has been on the grievance list for a couple years now and it has gotten to the point of comical. Favre is a below average quarterback that has overstayed his welcome and cost Brad Childress a job.
From a betting standpoint, the Vikings were a tough team to read but my sense is they will finish strong as they will play hard with Childress gone.
U.S. Soccer
When are people going to realize that nobody in this country cares about soccer? Big names were lobbying for the 2022 World Cup to be played in the United States and we were considered one of the favorites.
FIFA decided to give the 2022 World Cup to Qatar because they would rather have a country that enjoys soccer host it no matter if it means playing games in 120 degree heat.
That means soccer bettors will be rotating their schedules to catch the action in the middle of the night on TV. All five of them.
BCS
Here we go again with yet another year that we could be enjoying an absolutely incredible playoff for the national championship but instead we will witness a bunch of teams unfairly let out.
I’m not against Oregon or Auburn at all but I would not mind seeing one of them lose to get TCU in the BCS Championship because the Horned Frogs are the best team in the country.
If there was a BCS playoff, the March Madness office pools would play second fiddle to a BCS office pool. Companies would no doubt go under.
When the Miami Heat, Brett Favre, U.S. Soccer and the BCS all go away, we can say “It’s a Festivus miracle!”
Matt Fargo is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.
We are down to the last quarter of the NFL season which is hard to believe in itself. Once again, it is absolutely wide open on which teams are heading to the playoffs and which teams have the best chances to win the Super Bowl.
At the start of the preseason in my 7/29 blog I recommended a futures play on Atlanta (+2000) to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons are currently +600 so playing it early was a huge value play and at this point would be a great win. I still do not know if Atlanta has what it takes.
I also recommended the Bengals (+5000). Do they still have a shot?
Let’s take a look at a couple betting scenarios as we wind down the season.
To Win the AFC South:
Jacksonville -195
Indianapolis +120
Even though the Colts are a game back, I think they still have the best chance to win the division. They need to win tonight against the Titans obviously and their two remaining divisional games are both at home against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The other game is at Oakland, another very winnable contest.
As for the Jaguars, they have to play in Indianapolis after facing Oakland this week, host Washington and then travel to Houston. This is a much tougher slate.
If the Colts win out and Jacksonville goes 3-1, both will be tied at 10-6. The head-to-head meetings would be split meaning the next tiebreaker is divisional record and that would also be tied at 4-2. The next tiebreaker is record in common games and the Colts would win that tiebreaker 7-5 to 6-6.
Indianapolis going 4-0 in its last four games won’t be easy with the recent rut it has been in but it is more than possible.
Indianapolis +120 to win the AFC South
To Win the AFC North
Pittsburgh -430
Baltimore +235
The Steelers win over the Ravens Sunday night was a huge one for obvious reasons. They evened the season series which is the first tiebreaker and with the remaining schedule, Pittsburgh is in excellent shape not to give up its one-game lead.
The Steelers next three games are at home as they face Cincinnati, the Jets and Carolina and then close the season at Cleveland. They will be favored in all four games and I really do not see them losing any of those with the Jets game being the lone possible upset.
The Ravens have a tough game at Houston this week and then host New Orleans. Both are must wins but neither is going to be easy. Baltimore closes the season against the Bengals and Browns. It needs to go 4-0 and hope the Steelers slip up not once, but twice.
If Baltimore goes 4-0 and the Steelers finish 3-1 with the loss not coming against Cleveland or Cincinnati, it will not matter that both teams are 12-4 as the Steelers own the second tiebreaker with a 5-1 division record.
It is a juicy bet but one that is very solid.
Pittsburgh -430 to win the AFC North
Matt Fargo, who has a 60.6% winning percentage in the NFL this season, is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.
With only a few weeks left in the college football regular season, some teams are on the bowl game bubble needing to win one or more of their remaining games to become bowl eligible. This can provide us with some added motivation for these teams and in the right spots, we can cash some tickets.
A quick look at some teams for this week that can become bowl eligible with a win:
Syracuse Orange (3-2, 6-3)
Syracuse has the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility but two of those came against FCS competition and teams are allowed to use only one win against the lower division. The Orange have three chances starting this week at Rutgers where they are a road favorite. This is the first time they have been a road chalk against a BCS team since 2003 when they were favored by six points at, you guessed it, Rutgers. They lost 24-7.
Iowa St. Cyclones (3-3, 5-3)
Not many expected Iowa St. to make it to a bowl game last season after a 2-10 season in 2008 but the Cyclones did just that and won over Minnesota. They have a chance for back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2004-2005 as they play at Colorado as a road chalk before finishing at home against Missouri next week. The home team has won six straight in this series and with Dan Hawkins gone, what Buffaloes team shows up?
Houston Cougars (4-2, 5-4)
Once Case Keenum went down, the Cougars season was thought to be cooked but Houston rallied, went on to win two straight road games before falling at home last Friday against UCF. They control their own destiny as a win this week against Tulsa could get them into the C-USA Championship. With two tough road games remaining, this one is a must but the defense has to show up to win and cover the -2.5point number.
Kentucky Wildcats (1-5, 5-5)
Despite a 1-5 SEC record, the Wildcats can lock down their fifth straight bowl game with a win at home against Vanderbilt, also 1-5 in the conference. Three of Kentucky’s SEC losses have been by a touchdown or less. The Commodores have been outgained by an average of 353.5 ypg over their last four games while scoring just 35 points. Kentucky is at Tennessee in two weeks so this is a near must win but can it cover the 15 points?
Matt Fargo is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.
Well, we are just about halfway through the NFL season and it is anyone’s guess who will be Super Bowl bound and even playoff bound for that matter. When you think the league can’t have any more parity, what happens? We get more parity.
It is a great thing for the NFL and its fans. Unlike baseball where basically the same teams compete for the playoffs every year, we have new teams on an annual basis making a run. A lockout is looming for next season and it will be devastating for fans (and us handicappers) and we can only hope it gets ironed out.
Here are some of the bigger 2010 NFL surprises:
1. Dallas Cowboys
This team has (had) arguably the most talent and here they are sitting at 1-6 (1-6 ATS). The most amazing thing is that the Cowboys have been outgained only once and that was the game Tony Romo went down. His absence was devastating for a bounceback bid and this team is officially done.
How do we go about handicapping this team going forward? Very carefully. It was pretty obvious that they threw in the towel against Jacksonville despite being a touchdown favorite. The linesmakers have finally caught up and the Cowboys now have a line swing of over two touchdowns going into this week. This is actually the first time this season we may have line value on Dallas but it may not matter. Which Dallas team shows up?
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not many people outside of the Florida Gulf would have tabbed the Buccaneers to be in first place at this point of the season. Kudos to head coach Raheem Morris and what he has done to Tampa Bay following a 3-13 season last year. But is Tampa Bay really as good as its record indicates?
The Buccaneers five wins have come against teams a combined 12-24 with the Rams being the best of the bunch. The Rams? They lost to Pittsburgh and New Orleans by a combined score of 69-19 and on the season they have been outgained by four of seven opponents. In the three games they have won the yardage battle, it has been by a combined 72 yards. This week in Atlanta should confirm: contender or pretender.
3. All 32 head coaches still have jobs
There are a handful of teams that we can feasibly say are out of the playoff picture based on records and upcoming schedule. Carolina has gone from playoff contender, to middle of the pack spoiler, to bottom of the barrel in three short years. John Fox should feel pretty fortunate he has not been shown the door yet. Fade this team going forward.
Going back to Dallas, how does Wade Phillips still have a job? He must have something on Jerry Jones or maybe he and Jones may be coming out of the closet soon. This guy is laughable. He has lost his players this year and in his four years in Dallas, he has produced the biggest underachieving team in football. As a longtime Cowboys hater, even I feel bad for this sorry bunch of sadsacks. Maybe next year, well, probably not.
Matt Fargo is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.