Miami Dolphins: 7

An extensive over hall to both the roster and coaching staffs after a 1-15 season in 2007 was supposed to lay the ground work for improvements in 2008 and beyond. A quick 0-2 start to the 2008 season, and a 2-4 record by the end of Week Seven, had doubled the previous year’s win total already, yet none the less was hardly an inspiring start. The Dolphins had found something though in Week Three, when they unveiled the “Wildcat” on the Patriots in a 38-13 thumping of New England. Miami would go on to win nine of their remaining 10 games, including a five game winning streak to end the season, and stun NFL pundits everywhere by claiming supremacy in the AFC East.

For as impressive as Miami was with such a quick turnaround from a one win season a year earlier, a closer look may prove that the Dolphins took advantage of a rather soft schedule. Miami’s ’08 opponents only combined for 118 wins, coming in as the sixth fewest in the league. Of the Dolphin’s 11 wins last year, only two came against teams with an above .500 record. One came in Week Three when they shocked the Pats with the “Wildcat” and the other in Week 17 vs. a burnt out Brett Favre and the Jets. When they made it into the Wildcard round of the playoffs, they turned the ball over five times, en route to a 27-9 thrashing by another 11-5 team, the Ravens.

Success is success though, and Miami got a full-team effort all around last year. Quite possibly their best statistic was their league-leading plus 17 turnover differential which helped put them in a position to win many games. They were strong overall offensively and solid vs. the run, but will need to improve upon their 25^th ranking against the pass. The team will hope re-acquiring Jason Taylor will provide depth on the d-line, that CFL star Cameron Wake can make a name for himself in the NFL, that Joey Porter continues to be a disruptive force and that free agent FS Gibril Wilson will help solidify the secondary.

On offense C Jake Grove should be an upgrade over Samson Satele, but if Ted Ginn Jr. continues to not live up to expectations and Greg Camarillo isn’t fully recovered from knee surgery, the Dolphins already thin WR corps could really pose a problem. The majority of the offense would look to have to come from Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, to a lesser extent Patrick Cobbs and the steadying presence that is Chad Pennington once again this season.

This could be an extremely tough task with opponents having a full year to dissect the “Wildcat” and also with the fact that Miami will face the league’s toughest schedule in 2009. Their opponents will come in boasting a shade below a .600 winning percentage from a year ago, meaning Miami has taken a big step up in class from the competition they faced in 2008. Whereas in 2008 they caught many struggling teams or teams on a downswing, they’ll only see three teams (Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville) who came in under the .500 mark a year ago. They’ll have a chance to host two prime-time Monday nighters by the end of Week Five, and will play three home games in a row sandwiched around a bye early on, however from Weeks Eight-Twelve they’ll face a tough stretch of playing four of five on the road.

This is hard team to call as they definitely over achieved last year and many people are high on them to continue improving. Oddsmakers aren’t as high on the Fins though, only giving them seven wins for a season win total. In my opinion it’s hard to imagine Miami having the same kind of success again in 2009, but a five win drop off to go under the total seems steep. That being said this squad probably has the talent level somewhere in between the 1-15 team of 2007 and the 11-5 team of 2008, which would make seven wins possibly a fair number. I already expect this team to take a step back, couple that with the league’s toughest schedule and the under may be the play.

Prediction: A slight lean to under 7 wins.

Buffalo: 7.5

Buffalo got off to a blistering start in 2008 with a quick 5-1 start to the year, giving Bills fans everywhere hope that this squad had finally turned the corner. Instead, for whatever reason, the Bills went completely in the tank for the remainder of the year, only winning two more games and finished with only seven wins for the third consecutive season.

What’s even more concerning with the Bills, is when you look at their opponents from a year ago, the opportunity was there for them to make a serious run towards the playoffs. Having played a schedule which ended up being the second easiest in the league, Buffalo still struggled despite only playing the Cardinals, Patriots, Dolphins and Jets who had winning records. In fact the best teams Buffalo did manage wins against were the 8-8 Chargers and Broncos, who both weren’t at their best when the Bills faced them.

An 0-6 record against their divisional opponents last year and the league’s sixth toughest schedule coming into 2009, doesn’t bode well for a team desperately trying to revive the franchise and keep it in Buffalo long-term. If Buffalo can’t pull off at least a couple wins within their division this year, it’s hard to imagine them seeing any improvement at all in the standings. However if the Bills were to look forward at their schedule and try to pencil in some wins they may find it challenging. The only teams they face entering the year with losing records will be the Bucs, Browns, Jags and Chiefs.

By now everyone knows of the Bill’s huge free agent signing of Terrell Owens, who together with Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Roscoe Parrish form potentially one of the most dangerous groups of pass catching threats in the league. The problem though is that they may have a hard time getting the ball in their hands. Offensive Coordinator Turk Schonert had implemented the no huddle offense this preseason, but the combination of QB Trent Edwards poor ability to manage it and the complete lack of cohesion on the offensive line with all five starters being new or playing in new positions, has had disastrous results so far. Apparently this new style of offense has been failing so badly that it’s cost Schonert his job just days before the regular season is to begin. QB coach Alex Van Pelt will now take over the play calling on offense.

The secondary should again be a team strength, but their rush defence ranked 22^nd last year, and outside of drafting DE Aaron Maybin, little was done to address this issue in the offseason. Their play in the trenches on both sides of the ball is very suspect, as they ranked 26^th in sacks for and 24^th in sacks allowed in 2008.

The bottom line in my opinion is that simply adding T.O. to one of the dullest offences in the league, just doesn’t look to be enough to warrant serious consideration of expecting big things from Buffalo in 2009. Marshawn Lynch will miss some time due to suspension, Trent Edwards has yet to prove he is the long-term solution at QB, the offensive line is a mess and while the defence had some bright lights, overall they’re undersized and don’t strike fear into their opponents.

Prediction: Under 7.5

New England: 11.5

If the 2009 playoffs felt like they had something missing to them, it could’ve been that perennial invitees and Super Bowl challengers the New England Patriots were absent from them. Losing Tom Brady in the first week of the season, could very well be the main reason behind the Pat’s down year, but Matt Cassell emerged from his long time spot behind the clipboard and produced admirably given that he hadn’t started a game since high school. In fact you could argue he played so well that the offense barely missed a beat in scoring the second most points in the AFC. Unfortunately his solid play, the team’s four straight wins to end the year and an 11-5 record weren’t enough to get New England back to the playoffs.

With Tom Brady apparently fully recovered from knee surgery, Cassell was originally signed as the team’s franchise player, but then was quickly shipped off to become the starter in Kansas City. Bill Belichek must have been completely sold on Brady being fit to return, because not only was Cassell traded, but backups Kevin O’Connell, Matt Gutierrez and free agent Andrew Walter have also been let go. That currently only leaves undrafted free agent pick up Brian Hoyer from Michigan St. behind Brady, and with Brady potentially still feeling the effects of a crushing blow to his throwing shoulder from Albert Haynesworth this preseason, panic could sweep Foxborough should Brady have to miss any more significant time.

The Pats did add a few weapons on offence, with WR Joey Galloway, RB Fred Taylor and TEs Alex Smith and Chris Baker. None of these players are going to strike fear into opponents, but Taylor should still have enough in the tank to help the run game and Galloway still boasts impressive speed. The offensive line has been solid over the years, but took a step back in 2008, ranking 26^th in sacks allowed, and made no major additions this offseason. RG Stephen Neal is also already on the PUP list.

On the defensive side of the ball, the roster has past and present stars scattered throughout. New England was still a strong 15^th vs. the rush and 11^th vs. the pass last year, but has already seen several key players go down to injury in the early stages of this 2009 year. On the defensive line, Richard Seymour was traded to Oakland, Ty Warren and rookie Darryl Richard have fallen onto the PUP list, as well as Junrior Seau and Shawn Crable in the linebacking core. Rookie OLB Tyrone McKenzie will definitely be lost for the year as he has been placed on the IR with a knee injury. Mike Vrable left via free agency, and Teddy Bruschi retired, leaving the promising Pierre Woods and Gary Guyton to take their places.

The secondary will also have some new faces in the starting line up with Rodney Harrison retired and Ellis Hobbs leaving in free agency. CBs Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs were brought in to fight for starting spots, but Bodden has since been released and Springs is on the PUP list. This leaves the potential for a very young secondary with CB Terrence Wheatley, rookie CB Darius Butler, FS James Sanders and SS Brandon Meriweather all 25 or younger and looking like the frontrunners to start.

New England currently still sits at 11.5 for the season, however the lines have been taken off the board, most likely while the team sorts out how serious Brady’s shoulder injury is. Assuming this number stays put, I think the Patriots may struggle to improve on last years 11 wins and to cover this number. Upon further examination of the Pat’s victories last year, you’ll see that of their eleven, only three came against teams with winning records (the Jets, Miami and Arizona), one vs. a team at .500 (Denver) and their remaining seven wins came against some of the bottom feeders of the league. When it was all said and done they played only the 22^nd toughest schedule, which will be stark contrast to the 3^rd toughest they line up to face this year. To begin the year at least, the script is somewhat flipped, as instead of only playing three teams with winning records, they will play just three squads which came in under the .500 mark last year (Buffalo, Tampa and Jacksonville).

Prediction: With not a soul behind Brady, mounting injuries and several question marks, I’ll have to bet this one Under 11.5 wins.

New York Jets: 7

Brett Favre was supposed to come into New York and bring the J-E-T-S to the next level as Super Bowl contenders in 2008. A shaky 3-3 start was quickly forgotten when the team reeled off five straight wins to put themselves into serious consideration for the division crown. Week 13 was the beginning of the end for gang green though, as one win in the final five games, dropped them to a 9-7 record and out of the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Favre’s arm proved to have trouble holding up for an entire season at his age and he once again retired after the 2008 season, only to recently change his mind once again and sign with the Vikings, presumably his desired location all along.

New York will look to take a different approach this year, by anointing rookie Mark Sanchez as the team’s starting QB, and developing him into the face and future of the franchise. Sanchez will battle Kellen Clemons for starting duties, but it seems inevitable he should have a firm grasp on the job.

Perhaps just as big an acquisition as the drafting of Sanchez, was the hiring of ex-Raven’s Defensive Coodinator Rex Ryan as Head Coach to replace the mercurial Eric Mangini. Seen as a defensive genius for his years of orchestrating elite defences in Baltimore, Ryan brings instant credibility with him to the Jet’s sidelines. In the Jets, Ryan inherits a team very similar to the one he left behind in Baltimore, partly because he raided the cupboards as he left and brought over LB Bart Scott and S Jim Leonhard with him. Leonard, along with free agent CBs Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland, will hope to improve upon New York’s 29^th ranking against the pass last season.

Besides the familiar faces, the Jets are set up to run his favorite style of D, the 3-4 with massive Kris Jenkins entrenched at NT. The rest of the D is very solid in all positions with several burgeoning stars capable of playing up to the level of many of Ryan’s ex-Ravens. On offense, the running game should be a strength with first-time Pro Bowler Thomas Jones, speedy Leon Washington and rookie Shonn Greene and easing Sanchez into NFL action should be nothing new for Rex Ryan after doing the same with Joe Flacco last year.

Unfortunately a negative similarity would have to be in the passing game, where Jericho Cotchery is the Jet’s only proven weapon after Laveraneus Coles was granted his release. Someone else will need to emerge opposite Cotchery or the Jets could face the same fate that befell the Ravens of ’08. They proved in the playoffs that being completely bereft of quality pass catching targets can only get you so far.

New York faces a similar challenge as do the Patriots, in that their schedule should be much tougher this year. The Jets played teams with a combined .470 winning percentage last season, good enough for the seventh easiest, while 2009 will pit them against the exact opposite with league’s seventh toughest.

That being said, with two games vs. each of Buffalo and Miami, and games against Oakland, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Cincy to name a few, the opportunities are there to at least put together a decent season.

I know Mark Sanchez is a rookie with limited starting experience, but this whole scenario in New York just looks all too similar to what happened in Baltimore last year. This defence should be nothing short of solid and as long as Sanchez or Clemons doesn’t self destruct under centre I see no reason the Jets can’t be in line for at least .500 season or better.

Prediction: Over 7 wins

Best Bet to Win Division: The bottom line is a team like the Jets are very much worth taking a look at here. After a 1-15 season the Dolphins claimed this division last year, Tom Brady’s shoulder could be in question, the Bills are improved with T.O but still a mess overall and the Pats are completely over priced anyways. In my opinion this division is not wide open, but the gap is narrowing between the Pats and everyone else. At +850 the J-E-T-S are definitely worth a flyer and that’s where my money is going.

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Kansas City: 6

2008 turned out to be a complete disaster all around for the Chiefs as they bottomed out with a 2-14 record. They tied with the Rams for the league’s second worst record and allowed the fourth most points league wide with 440. It’s hard to find a single positive stat line on KC from last season, as their offense was average at best, they were 30^th defending the run, 28^th defending the pass and set an NFL record for fewest sacks in a season with only 10, not surprisingly finishing a rock bottom 32^nd in that category.

Results like that can only mean changes need to be made, and they certainly were. A new GM, coach and defensive coordinator highlighted the management changes. Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey had survived the initial round of pink slips from his new bosses, but hasn’t been able to get along with new coach Todd Haley and has recently been relieved of his duties. Gailey will be taking a front office position, while Haley will have his hands full as a first-time head coach by taking over the play calling duties on offense as well.

A host of changes were made all over the roster, none the least being the addition of Matt Cassell through a trade with the Patriots. Free agent WR pick up Bobby Engram may be the biggest addition on offence, and he will have to try and replace some of the offense the Chiefs have lost by trading TE Tony Gonzalez. The line backing corps added some pieces with the additions of Monty Beisel and Mike Vrabel, to name a few. However they’ll both be on the north side of 30 so can’t be seen as long term solutions.

Questions abound on the right side of the offensive line, where free agent Mike Goff could be a new starter at RG, while RT is anyone’s guess as Damion McIntosh has just been released.

Being saddled with the fourth toughest schedule last year certainly didn’t help matters for Kansas City and only playing three teams (Cincinnati, Oakland and Buffalo) with losing records would be a tough chore for any team. The schedule should lighten a bit this season only coming in as the 17^th toughest.

That being said most of KC’s “easier games” look to come near the end of the year when potentially they could already be long out of contention. Playing Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincy, and Denver twice in their last five games, may be a small consolation for having to play the likes of Baltimore, the entire NFC East, Pittsburgh and two games vs. San Diego twice all by Week Twelve. While Weeks Thirteen to Fifteen may be all home games, all three of those opponents will have had a few days extra rest as they played their game the week before on a Thursday.

The Chiefs have certain pieces in place which should be strong building blocks for the future. Their secondary is very young, yet very promising, especially with the likes of sophomore CBs Brandon Carr and Brandon Flowers. The defensive line will need to really step up with a rotation that is also very young, where most of the key pieces are all 25 or younger.

Originally I wanted to say the Chiefs had a legitimate shot to go over their projected win total. They have made some nice additions and the tail end of their schedule has the potential for KC to string together a few wins and end the year on a positive note. Unfortunately so far they have looked terrible in pre-season play and the firing of their offensive coordinator roughly a week before the season is to begin can only mean the team is acknowledging things are a mess up front. Quite honestly looking at their schedule they could quite conceivably only have 2-3 wins after Week 12. That would mean they would most likely need to win four or five of their final five games and I just don’t think this team is talented enough to put together that kind of streak.

Prediction: Under 6 wins

Denver:  6.5

After Week Five, the Broncos were sitting pretty at 4-1 and looking like the favorites to take the AFC West crown. They hit some rough patches over the next several weeks but still were in position to win the division at 8-5 after Week 14. One win in either of their next two games would’ve solidified their spot in the playoffs and a top the division, however two straight losses set up a showdown in Week 17 vs. San Diego. Having personally bet the Broncos to win the AFC West early in 2008, witnessing their slow collapse and eventual demise in San Diego was quite tough to watch.

A season which began with so much promise, quickly went in the opposite direction and the ramifications were significant. 14 year head coach Mike Shanahan was fired, leaving the door open for 32 year-old Josh McDaniels to leave his spot as Offensive Coordinator in New England, for his first head coaching gig in Denver. Mass changes were made on both sides of the ball, along with the biggest move in Jay Cutler forcing his way out of town and ending up in a Bears uniform. It would seem that WR Brandon Marshall is attempting to engineer his own move out of Denver, but for now he has just been suspended for the remainder of the preseason by the team for “conduct detrimental to the team.”

Denver’s 2008 offensive statistics were very respectable, however those will essentially need to be thrown out the window considering some combination of most likely Kyle Orton and Chris Simms will now be behind centre and both are battling injuries as of this writing. An offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league will return fully intact and will now be clearing paths for rookie Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter out of the backfield.

Despite several changes along all lines of defence, the Broncos still have miles to go in improving upon a D which ranked 27^th against the run and 26^th against the pass. This unit also ranked 24^th in sacks, had the league’s worst turnover differential at minus 17 and were second worst only to the Lions in points allowed with 448.

Denver won’t have the luxury of playing the 3^rd easiest schedule again this year, but their schedule does only come in middle of the pack at 19^th. That being said from Weeks Four to Twelve the Broncos could conceivably go winless as they play almost all of the potentially “top” teams in the league. This stretch includes games vs. Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego again and then the Giants. That doesn’t include games on the road vs. Indy in Week 14 and vs. Philly in Week 16.

The bottom line is that there’s no way this team is even close to the 8-8 team that finished the 2008 season. No team which has gone through as much controversy in the offseason and as many public disputes with its star players can truly expect to succeed. Kyle Orton may have been serviceable in Chicago, but he had some semblance of a defence behind him. In Denver he has been throwing INTs left, right, and centre in the preseason and will be exposed for the average QB he is. How much worse this edition of the Broncos will be compared to the 2008 squad is yet to be seen, but at least two wins worse by no means seems like a stretch. This may be actually be one of the worst teams in the league in 2009, and I even think the Lions could have a better year.

Prediction: Under 6.5 wins

San Diego:  9.5

A slow start to the season and a 4-8 record after Week 13 in 2008, had the Chargers looking like one of the biggest disappointments of the year. Regardless of the fact that their games in Denver and Pittsburgh were both decided with questionable calls that weren’t in their favour, this squad just couldn’t find a way to get things together. Then in Week 14, when they looked left for dead, a light went on and San Diego steam rolled past the Raiders in a 34-7 victory. The win sparked the Chargers to close out the year on a four-game winning streak, including their season finale vs. Denver which they won 52-21 to steal the division crown right from under the Broncos noses. The Chargers kept this momentum going into the playoffs by eliminating the Colts, but eventually flamed out in the Divisional round to the eventual Super Bowl champ Steelers.

For the last few years, this team has been touted as one of the league’s finest, and that window of opportunity could be closing with at least five key players entering into their contract years this season. Add to that LT turning 30 years old and NT Jamal Williams being well into his thirties at 33, and this roster could see some changes in the coming year or two. To avoid being forced to string together several wins at the end of the year just to squeak into the playoffs in what is arguably one of the league’s weakest divisions, San Diego will need to be all business right from the get go this year. It would appear head coach Norv Turner feels the same way as he has been playing several of his stars such as Tomlinson this preseason, something which he has rarely done in the past.

San Diego made some of the fewest changes to their roster this offseason, with the addition of LB Kevin Burnett being the only notable signing. GM A.J. Smith obviously is happy with the group he has and needed to save some cash for his own soon-to-be free agents. The return of Shawn Merriman from injury is almost like a trade or signing though, as his absence last season most likely contributed to San Diego’s 28^th ranking in sacks.

Ryon Bingham will replace Igor Olshansky at DE and the releases of both Mike Goff and Kynan Forney leave a bit of a question mark at RG where rookie Luis Vasquez may be forced to start.

A 31^st ranked secondary is very concerning, but if Antonio Cromartie is fully healed from the fractured hip injury he played through last year, the unit should improve. As well, the Chargers could be in luck as their schedule doesn’t include many teams with potent vertical offenses. With Jay Cutler no longer in the division that’s two less games where they will face an elite QB. That leaves Rothlisberger, Eli Manning, McNabb, Romo and Palmer as the only “star” QBs the Charger secondary will have to deal with. Of that group Pittsburgh, New York and Dallas all focus more on the run where San Diego was 11^th last year, and Palmer is already battling injuries and potentially could be hobbled and out of contention by the time they face him in Week 15.

The Chargers are once again favored to do big things in 2009. They are overwhelming favorites to win their division at -450, and to bet the over on their win total you’ll have to lay -220, which has been bet way up from -150 earlier in the summer. They are also right behind New England to win the AFC and rank as one of the top choices to win the Super Bowl at only +850.

While the value may not be there to win the division or to go over 9.5 wins, betting this team to win the AFC and/or Super Bowl can’t be seen as a poor decision. They have a strong defense and a prolific offense which was 7^th in passing a year ago, a core of players desperate to prove themselves in contract years and barring Miami-type turnaround seasons by their division rivals, virtually a red carpet laid out for them to the AFC West championship. San Diego could very easily go 6-0 within the West, setting them up for double digit wins and a potential bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. They already proved they can beat Indy in the playoffs and this could be the year they go all the way.

Prediction: Over 9.5 wins

Oakland:  5.5

The Raiders followed up a combined 15 wins from 2004-07 with yet another embarrassing season of five wins to finish at 5-11, ironically their highest win total since 2004. While the Raider’s deep backfield kept the chains moving at times ranking 10^th, the passing attack led by JaMarcus Russell was abysmal, plummeting to the bottom of the league at 32^nd. Overall only the Browns, Bengals and Rams managed fewer total offensive points on the year.

Oakland’s schedule ranks 19^th in terms of opponent’s winning percents from last year, coming in slightly easier than what 2008’s ended up at, ninth. Notable additions are rookie WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Samson Satele at C and DE Richard Seymour who was recently acquired from New England. Jeff Garcia had been signed to back up Russell, however he was released during the final days of roster cut downs this past weekend. This leaves the weight of the offense squarely on Russell’s shoulders, something he has yet to prove he is capable of handling.

The secondary was a strong point last year ranking 10^th, and CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson are solid, but safeties Hiram Eugene and Micahel Huff leave much to be desired. They will be hard pressed to replace the efforts of Gibril Wilson who the Raiders weren’t able to afford to retain. Oakland was 31^st vs. the run, so how much teams simply just avoided throwing on them is tough to distinguish. Take preseason for what it’s worth, but Oakland was 1-3 and their D continued to show many holes during their four preseason games, allowing the second most at 107. Even the Titans and Bills who played one extra game finished with less points allowed.

Predicting the Raiders season win total seems almost impossible to call. Four of the last five years they’ve had four or five wins, which would probably make 5.5 about dead on for 2009. Oakland did show a bit of a spark ending 2008 on a two game winning streak but this team has been so bad for so long it’s hard to expect much out of them. Playing to their favor is that they may very well be the second best team within their division. Compared with Denver and KC, they experienced the least controversy and roster change over. They do have three instances this season where they travel out East and then return home across the country the very next week which could get tiring over a long season. I believe they should be able to pull out a few wins within the AFC West against the Broncos and Chiefs, meaning a few more wins here and there could get them over the total.

If they do go over it will be tooth and nail all year and will hinge greatly on the hope that many of their young players take the next stage in their development and improve this team from within.

Prediction: Over 5.5 wins but by the smallest of margins and it’s not considered a strong play.

Best Bet to Win Division:  Almost by default and for all the reasons mentioned earlier in this article, the San Diego Chargers at -450. However I see little point in laying such a large price.

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Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published.

Pittsburgh: 10.5

The Steelers opponents in 2008 combined to win 133 games, good enough for Pittsburgh to end up playing the seventh toughest schedule. This obviously was no hurdle for them as they were consistently strong all year, never losing back-to-back games, ended the regular season at 12-4, and marched their way to a come-from-behind Super Bowl victory.

The Steel Curtain defence Pittsburgh is famous for, was again the team’s strong point, ranking second vs the run, first vs the pass and second in sacks, while also allowing the fewest points against with only 223. The offence was never flashy, posting middling results both on the ground and in the air, however they were always able to do just enough to get the job done. Their biggest concern was the fact that Big Ben continued to see some of the most grass of any QB in the league, as the Steelers allowed the fourth most sacks in the league.

The top teams in the league, much less the Super Bowl champions, often see a tougher schedule the following season. However the schedule makers were very kind and rewarded Pittsburgh with only the league’s 29^th toughest schedule. Their schedule looks to set up nicely as well with them only leaving the East or Central time zone once for a game in Denver, not having to play any teams off a bye week and having their bye week at a decent time in Week Eight, nearly in the middle of the year.

With Santonio Homes looking like he is emerging as a future star, and Rashard Mendenhall returning from injury to join Willie Parker in the backfield, it would look as if Pittsburgh has some parts in order to improve on offense in 2009. Roethlisberger will always keep the team in any game but his protection will have to tighten up if he is to have a long career. The problem I see is that outside of a few rookies, nothing was done to upgrade this offensive line in the offseason, and the WR corps lost serviceable Nate Washington to free agency.

Pittsburgh’s defence should remain elite, especially with the softer schedule they are set up to face. Their linebackers are arguably the best in the league, CB Bryant McFadden departed in free agency as well, and every starter on the defensive line will be in their 30s this year.

The Steelers will play some of last year’s worst teams in the Bengals, Browns, Packers, Lions, Raiders and Chiefs. They also only play four teams (Titans, Vikings, Ravens and Dolphins) who made it to double digit victories last year. With a win total at 10.5 there would look to be more than enough spots for the Steelers to get to or go over that number. When I looked down their schedule I found their number to be set very accurately. Obviously some of these teams that struggled last year will improve and it’s unlikely the Bengals and Browns will combine for only eight wins again.

Prediction:  Over 10.5 wins. But this is only a very slight lean to the over and only because of their very soft schedule. If Pittsburgh does make it to 11 wins, I think it will come down to the very end of the year and could very easily stay under the number with a couple of upset losses. Precede with caution.

Baltimore:  8.5

The Ravens got off to a mediocre start last season, opening up 2-0 and then dropping their next three straight games. However they then proceeded to win nine of their final 11 games, behind a surprisingly effective offense and stout D. They entered the playoffs as a Wildcard team really only by name, and proved they belonged as they steamrolled past Miami and outlasted the Titans in the Divisional round. The one team the Ravens struggled with most all season had been the Steelers, losing both their regular season games to them, and that trend continued in the AFC Championship game. With four turnovers and being worn out from their game with the Titans, Pittsburgh proved to be too much for the Ravens for a third time that year.

The Ravens mirrored the Steelers in many ways last year, mostly in defensive numbers, ranking third vs. the rush and second vs. the pass. They were one of the best teams running the ball with the combination of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le’Ron McClain ranking fourth in the league. While Joe Flacco was extremely effective moving the chains as a rookie, the Ravens still ranked 28^th in passing and their inability to throw in the playoffs was a big part of their undoing. Overall the Ravens actually had the best combination of offence and defence in the league as they tied with Tennessee in Net Points with +141.

What I wrote about Pittsburgh’s strength of schedules both last year and this, can be almost repeated for the Ravens. While their opponents had the eighth most wins last year, (one spot behind Pittsburgh’s) the Ravens have also been rewarded in 2009, by getting the fifth easiest schedule.

This offseason Baltimore did very little to improve on their areas of weakness from 2008. TE L.J Smith was signed, but he likely won’t be a major difference maker. The Ravens actually didn’t even draft a WR and that decision may come back to haunt them down the road. The cupboard is not exactly overflowing with a dearth of pass catching threats, Mark Clayton and Demetrius Williams often struggle and Derrick Mason isn’t getting any younger at 35. Obviously this was after the draft, but Mason’s brief retirement almost put Baltimore in serious trouble before he changed his mind. As Flacco’s top target, it’s key to have him back in the line up, but you have to wonder if his focus is beginning to wane at all.

Their talent at RB should continue to excel, however the offensive line will be going through changes. At C Matt Birk will replace Jason Brown and rookie Michael Oher will most likely replace the retired Willie Anderson at RT. Some injury concerns are already beginning to pile up though on the offense as Mason and Clayton are nursing injuries, as well as OT Marshall Yanda, and T Adam Terry is already out for the year with a knee injury.

The Ravens defence still has more than enough parts to remain elite, and being able to resign Ray Lewis was the Raven’s biggest offseason move.  However key performers like LB Bart Scott, CB Chris McAllister and S Jim Leonard were not retained.

From a records standpoint, Baltimore’s schedule does shape up nicely. A closer look though does reveal some troubling areas. Firstly they will make an early cross country trip, as they start the year off at home, then go to San Diego in Week Two and then return back to the east at home in Week Three. Then from Weeks Eight to 10 they play three games against teams coming off a bye, followed by a game Week 11 vs. Indy and Week 12 vs. Pittsburgh. In Week 13 they will then travel to Green Bay who will have had a few extra days of rest after having played on Thursday the week before.

When I first began handicapping the Ravens, I was envisioning them taking another step forward from last year and having a chance to go deep into the playoffs again. Opponents will have had a full offseason to game plan for Joe Flacco though this year, and with the limited amount of pass catching options, teams should be well prepared for a healthy does of Rice, McGahee and McClain. With the losses their roster has suffered and the few injuries which are already popping up I feel the Ravens will be hard pressed to be as successful as they were in 2008.

Prediction:  Under 8.5

Cincinnati: 6.5

Last season the Bengals weren’t able to catch any breaks. Carson Palmer was limited in the four games he played in due to an elbow injury and was eventually shut down for the year. Already playing at a major disadvantage without their star signal caller, it didn’t help matters that Cincinnati caught many opponents who were in the midst of having productive years. Cincy’s ’08 opponents racked up the third most wins in the league with 141 and a .552 winning percentage. To make matters worse, Ochocinco had one of his worst seasons and star-in-the-making Keith Rivers was lost for most of the year with a broken jaw.

A long story short, the Bengals struggled immensely, scoring the fewest points in the league with 204, and posting the worst point differential in the AFC at -160. They were especially bad on the road as they tied with Kansas City and St. Louis for the second worst road records at 1-7, ranking only better than the 0-8 Lions.

There is really very little positive on to comment about the Bengal’s ’08 year, as they ranked near the bottom of the league in most major statistical categories.  With their poor offensive output, it’s no surprise they ranked 29^th in rushing and 30^th in passing offense. Their play in trenches also left much to be desired, as they were 30^th in sacks allowed and 31^st in producing their own. Overall Cincy got off to an 0-8 start, before finishing respectably by their standards on a 4-3-1 run to finish 4-11-1.  A closer look at these wins though will show that none of them came against a team with a winning record, and the four teams that they beat only combined for 19 wins on the year between themselves.

There is obviously not many places to go for the 2009 edition of the Bengals besides up. With Carson Palmer back in the line up, Ochocinco apparently rejuvenated and only facing the league’s 22^nd toughest schedule, the pieces would seem to be in place for an improvement.

If Palmer remains healthy this offense should revert back to its high flying ways. Even with the departure of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, the combination of Ochocinco, Chris Henry, FA Laveranues Coles and RB Cedric Benson should provide enough firepower on offense. But Palmer is already nursing an ankle injury this preseason, and while minor, there is next to nothing behind him on the depth chart should he miss any time at all.

This is a team I find myself rooting for after their many years of ineptitude and their gradual improvement over the last few years. Unfortunately I don’t know if getting Palmer back behind center is going to be enough to vault this team up the standings. There are still many holes throughout the line up in my opinion and far too many young players being forced into starting roles. In fact the offensive line could possibly have two rookie starters in Andre Smith and Jonathon Luigs.

The bottom line is that Cincinnati didn’t even come close to competing against either of Pittsburgh or Baltimore last year and those two teams are still solid and will still make up four of the Bengals games this year. While Cincy’s schedule isn’t lined up to be the toughest, I believe some of their opponents like Green Bay, Houston, Chicago, Oakland, Detroit, San Diego, KC and the Jets all will be better teams this year or at least have a strong potential for improvement. If the Bengals avoid any injuries to key players, Ochocinco and Coles produce at a high level and the defence takes a step forward this team may have the potential for 7-8 wins, but I feel there are too many “ifs” here to make a strong case for the over.

Prediction:  Under 6.5 wins

Cleveland: 7

2008 was supposed to be a year in which the Browns proved that there 10 wins in 2007 were no fluke, and that they were here to stay as a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. Instead all they did was make 2007 look more like an anomaly, amongst their recent history of disappointing seasons. The four wins they recorded fell much more in line with the four, six and four wins they posted from 2004-2006.

Though Cleveland did finish with a better record than three other teams in the league, they quite possibly had one of the worst second halves of a season the NFL has ever seen. The Browns struggled right from the onset of the season starting 0-3, but were 3-4 after Week Eight and 4-6 after Week Eleven. Week Twelve turned out to be the start of a truly awful 0-6 stretch to end the season, as the Browns scored only 31 points during that time, didn’t score an offensive touchdown in over 24 quarters and were shutout in their final two games.

With these kinds of results and both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn injured, its no surprise that Cleveland ranked poorly in many major statistical categories.  With both QBs healthy and ready to compete for the starting role this year, improvement on the team’s 26^th rushing and 31^st passing attacks should be doable. The Browns got run over on defence last year ranking 28^th vs. run, but were a respectable 14^th against the pass. With emerging talents at CB in Eric Wright and Brandon McDonald and the addition of SS Abram Elam, the secondary could again be a strength in Cleveland this year.

Some of the Brown’s misfortunes last season could be attributed to the fact that they ended up playing the league’s toughest schedule, playing opponents with a .573 winning percentage. In fact they only played three teams, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Jacksonville all year who had a below .500 record.

This year the schedule hopes to be softer on the Browns coming in as only the 25^th toughest. It won’t all be easy because major changes were made to the organization this offseason. The Brown’s entire leadership structure has changed with a new GM, Coach, Offensive and Defensive Coordinators. Ex-Jet Eric Mangini takes over the coaching reigns for his third try at leading a team, and he will have to do without the services of Kellen Winslow Jr. who was dealt to Tampa. Rookie WRs Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi will look to replace Donte Stallworth as adequate targets opposite Braylon Edwards, with Stallworth being suspended indefinitely for his manslaughter DUI charges. The offensive line struggled to open up running lanes in 2008, but was decent defending the pass ranking ninth. This unit also is undergoing mass changes, with the potential of having to break in three new starters in rookie C Alex Mack, and FA pickups G Floyd Womack and T John St. Clair.

As touched on earlier, the Browns have only won four games in three of their past five seasons and now oddsmakers are expecting them to reach seven this year? In my opinion there are just too many changes, too little talent, and too few soft spots in their schedule for this to occur.

Prediction:  Under 7 wins

Best Bet to Win Division:  Baltimore Ravens at +300. Sure the Steelers are a decent bet as well, but I’m looking for a quality team at a decent price in this section. At -225, if you have the bankroll to back the Steelers and tie up your money for four to five months then more power to you, however the Ravens would look to offer the better value here.

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Over the next few weeks I will preview each NFL division from an Over/Under season win total perspective.  All totals and odds to win division courtesy of Bowmans.com as current as the date the article is published. 

Indianapolis: 10

With Peyton Manning getting virtually no practice time last offseason due to his bursa sac injury, Manning entered Week One rusty and the Colts lost easily to the Bears 29-13.  The rocky start continued through Week Eight when Indy sat at an unimpressive 3-4.  However the Colts flipped the switch starting the next week with a home win over New England, and then proceeded to follow up with eight more straight wins, to finish the season with a nine game winning streak and a 12-4 record.  That magical streak came to an abrupt halt in the postseason though, as they fell in overtime to the Chargers.

Indy hasn’t had less than 12 wins in any of the past five seasons, and haven’t had as few as 10 wins since 2002; however that number, 10, is exactly what bookmakers have lined them at for this coming season.  In the eyes of some, that number may actually be too high.  About a month ago, making a bet on Over 10 wins was the more popular choice, at -135, with the Under coming in at a plus price, at +105.  Since then, money has been coming in on the Under, with the Under now sitting at -120, and Over at -110.

Going into 2009, Indy returns basically the identical cast of 08 to the field.  However gone are RB Dominic Rhodes and future hall-of-famer Marvin Harrison. While Harrison has been Manning’s favourite target since 96, his production and health have slipped, and contract was going to be too much this year.  Even with Harrison only receiving 636 years last year, the Colts passing attack still ranked fifth in the league, in part due to the ample amount of options Manning still has in Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark and Gijon Robinson to name a few.  The other part being the solid job his offensive line did in protection, ranking third in sacks allowed.

A rushing attack ranked a measly 31^st last year, will surely miss Rhodes, however Indy will be hoping rookie Donald Brown will be an adequate replacement and someone who can push starter Joseph Addai for playing time. Defensively the Colts will have to tighten up their play vs. the run, as they were a dismal 24^th, however they were very strong vs. the pass ranking sixth.  If Bob Sanders, who only played in six regular season games last year, can remain healthy, his presence will help elevate the whole defence.

Of course while the roster looks much the same as the 08 version, the coaching staff has undertaken a complete makeover. Tony Dungy has decided to pursue other interests at this stage of his life and both coordinators have also been replaced.  Ron Meeks left for Carolina, and Tom Moore was forced into a consultant position to avoid losing his pension. The whole confusing situation saw the often reserved Manning, speak out about his displeasure of the lack of communication with the new coaching staff this offseason.  New coach Jim Caldwell and Offensive Coordinator Clyde Christensen have been promoted from within, which should provide some stability, however if the whole staff can’t come together collectively, Indy could be in for a frustrating year.

While this season’s schedule ranks slightly tougher at 13^th, than what Indy ended up with at the end of 08, if you take a closer look it’s certainly not daunting.  Getting off to a decent start will be important as Indy plays two of their first three games on the road, and four of the first seven. However after a road game in St. Louis in Week Seven, Indy returns home for three straight weeks, then hits the road for games in Baltimore and Houston, however each of those teams will be coming off short weeks having played on the Monday prior.  The Colts then play two more straight home games, and finish the year alternating road and home dates, finishing with a season finale in Buffalo, which if this year is anything like recent years, may be a rather meaningless game for both teams, just for different reasons.  One final point of the schedule is that they will have a very light travel schedule, only having to make one trip out of the Eastern or Central time zones, and that is in Week Three when they visit the Cardinals.

In my opinion, the Colts are still a very strong and dominant team.  However some of their lustre has slowly been wearing off over the last couple years and some players have been wearing down with injuries. Stopping the run has been a consistent problem lately in Indianapolis, and a completely new coaching staff can only be a hurdle and not a blessing when you consider who their predecessors were. The conference and division are no longer Indy’s for the taking, with lots of competition from perennial powerhouses, as well as improved play from several other teams.  Even within their own division, the Titans and even the Texans, can now go punch for punch with the mighty Colts.  While I don’t see Indy running away with anything and a repeat of last year’s 12 wins may be a tough sell, it’s hard to imagine a Peyton Manning lead Colts team failing to reach at least the 10 win mark.

Prediction:  Over 10 wins

Tennessee: 9

After bottoming out in the middle of this decade in 2005 with four wins, the Titans have been on a steady ascent towards becoming one of the league's elite teams.  Tennessee has improved their win totals to eight, ten and finally 13 during the last three seasons respectively.

All the pieces came together during the regular season in 2008, as the Titans roared out of the gates going 10-0 and laid claim to the league's best record, behind a strong run game, a phenomenal defense which allowed the second fewest points in the league and efficient, yet unspectacular play from QB Kerry Collins.

2008 saw the Titans rank in the top 10 of many major statistical categories on both sides of the ball, while also producing a +14 turnover differential, ranking only second behind the +17 of the Steelers.  With Vince Young being either injured, depressed or uninterested to begin the year, Collins stepped in admirably, however producing offense through the air was never the Titans strength, as evidenced by their 27th ranking in passing offense. While Tennessee was able to get by with their other strengths during the regular season, the lack of a passing game proved to be their undoing in the playoffs.  Despite thoroughly outplaying the Ravens in the AFC Divisional round, they could only manage 10 points in falling 13-10.

While they did face many quality opponents in the Steelers, Ravens, and Colts twice, to name a few, overall their opponents in 2008 only combined to win the fourth fewest games.  This season however, they are lined up to face a slightly tougher schedule, as theirs ranks 14th in difficulty.

Looking down their schedule, it would appear the Titans will need to be in top form early on, in order to remain near the top of the AFC standings.  They will begin the year playing three of four on the road and the only time they face a team with a losing record from last year before Week Nine, will be the two times they face the Jaguars in Weeks four and eight.  Three times this year they will also play teams coming off a bye and once, in Week 11, they will play on a short week on a Monday night in Houston with the Texans coming off their bye. It would be worth noting that while they kept it close in losing 13-12, Tennessee was completely outplayed in Week 15 last year in Houston. Things do get a bit better in the last month of the year as they play three in a row at home before closing out the year in Seattle.

Duplicating last year's results may be tough, as Tennessee will be without standout DT Albert Haynesworth who signed a lucrative contract in Washington and Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz who took the head coaching job in Detroit.  Some key additions will be DT Jovan Haye who'll look to fill Haynesworth's spot, and WR Nate Washington who'll look stretch the field the same way he did in Pittsburgh, to try and spark the passing attack.  He could be helped by first round pick WR Kenny Britt who has the potential to start right away.

The Titans aren't going to sneak up on anybody in 2009, as they finally unseated the Colts as the top team in the AFC South. Losing Haynesworth and Schwartz are big losses, and in my opinion they've done little to improve the passing game.  That being said the Titans are still loaded with talent, and even with a slight drop off from last year, they should still be in line to cover the number.

Prediction:  Over 9 wins

Houston:  8

2008 was very much a season of ups and downs for the Houston Texans. Houston finally finished with .500 record in 2007 and were hoping to improve and take the next step forward last season.  However you could argue that the Texans were doomed from the get-go as they had to deal with Hurricane Ike. Players had their families and homes on their mind, and the team was evicted from Reliant Stadium for a home game in Week Two as the stadium was damaged and needed repairs.  This meant that Houston was forced to take their bye week in Week Two and play 15 games in a row thereafter.  It also meant that Houston wouldn't play their first home game until Week Five, which at that point they were already 0-3.

After losing that home game vs. Indy, the Texans went on a three game home winning streak, before dropping their next three, and then finishing strong winning four of five. That strong finish brought the Texans even at 8-8, however of their eight wins, only three of them came against teams with winning records.

This year their schedule comes in at the middle of the pack ranking 15th in degree of difficulty.  The Texans will have a good opportunity to get off to a good start as three of their opening four games will be on their home turf.  If Houston can't put a couple wins together during that stretch, they may fall out of contention early on as four of their next five games will be on the road, where Houston's 2-6 road mark from last year, was in stark contrast to their 6-2 record at home.

Looking at which divisions they are lined up to face this year, they obviously play in an ultra-competitive AFC South, but they will also have to face all the teams from one of the most successful divisions last year, the AFC East.  On the plus side, when they play out of conference, they will take on one of the softer NFC divisions; the West.  Finally after having one of the earliest bye weeks ever last year for reasons mentioned previously, a bye week during Week 10 may come at the perfect time in order for Houston to rest up before entering the second half of the season.

Offensively Houston has become one of the more potent units in the league, ranking 13th in rushing and fourth in passing. Lead by QB Matt Schaub, standout WR Andre Johnson and rookie sensation Steve Slaton, the Texans should have the cornerstones of the offense in place.  Unfortunately Schaub has found it difficult to stay healthy and should he miss any significant amount of time the team could be in trouble. While in 2008, they had a turnover prone, yet highly effective Sage Rosenfels at backup, he was not retained in free agency and has been replaced by Dan Orlovsky. Orlovsky couldn't cut it with the Lions and can be best remembered for forgetting how big the end zone was and running out of bounds last year.

Houston's crutch continued to be their problems with turnovers, finishing with a -10 differential, as well their overall play on the defensive side of the ball.  The secondary ranked a marginal 17^th yet cut ties with several players this offseason, however the team was 23rd vs. the rush and also 23rd in producing sacks.

They will look to improve things on this side of the ball with the several new additions to the front seven including Shaun Cody, Buster Davis and Cato June.  Their prized free agent addition was DE Antonio Smith, who was lured away from the Super Bowl runner-up Cardinals, to provide more pressure opposite Mario Williams on the defensive line.

Last year the Texans split their divisional games with Tennessee and Jacksonville, but lost both to Indy, yet kept both games close.  If they can look to improve to at least splitting these six games or potentially sweeping a team like Jacksonville who could struggle, they could already be half way to equaling their projected win total. Even after dealing with Ike, no home games for a month and an awful start, Houston still rebounded to have a respectable year. The playoffs may still elude this squad in 2009 as unless you were the Broncos as winners of the AFC West with an 8-8 record, it took 11 wins just to qualify for the Wild Card last year. However this year's schedule looks manageable in my opinion and I think we may see some improvement here.

Prediction:  Over 8 wins

Jacksonville: 8

Entering last season the Jaguars were full of confidence and supposed to contend among the top teams in the AFC and challenge for the Super Bowl. Instead the Jaguars took a huge step backwards by having their worst season since 2003.  After winning three games and sitting at 3-3 going into their bye week, the Jags went completely in the tank by only winning two of their remaining 10 games to finish at a dismal 5-11.

Much of this could be attributed to widespread injuries, especially on the offensive line. The offense ranked fairly middle of the road both on the ground and through the air, however they suffered in turnover differential at -7 and got scorched through the air when defending the pass, by ranking 24th.

Many changes have been made this offseason with the team cutting ties with several players on both sides of the ball. The Jags have suffered without any big play receivers and the team finally showed the door to underachievers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones.  Dennis Northcutt has also been traded to the Lions, which leaves you to wonder if the best this unit can hope for is addition by subtraction.  WR Tory Holt was signed and will immediately become QB David Garrard's number one target, but he will be 33 and has been battling knee injuries at this stage of his career.

Mel Tucker comes over from Cleveland to become the Jags third Defensive Coordinator in as many years, and he may incorporate some of the 3-4 defense into a unit which struggled under Greg Williams 4-3 last year.  S Sean Considine has also been signed to help in the secondary.

After seeing how much the offensive line struggled when injuries hit last year, new GM Gene Smith has tried to provide depth by signing OT Tra Thomas and drafting two O-linemen in the first two rounds of the draft in Eugene Monroe who could start at LT and Eben Britton.

Another reason Jacksonville may have struggled in 08 could be that their opponents had the fourth most wins in the league.  Despite the Jags poor results in 08, 09 still sees them playing the 11th toughest schedule with their opponents posting a .516 winning percentage. The Jags will need to be geared up and ready to go as soon as the season starts, as in their first four games they will play all three of their divisional rivals, in addition to hosting the Cardinals in Week Two.  Other points of interest are three straight games vs. teams coming off bye weeks starting in Week Seven, and then three straight home games from Weeks 13-15.

Running back Maurice Jones-Drew will now be the main man running the ball in Jacksonville after Fred Taylor wasn't resigned and he may be the only star on this team right now.  The Jags probably aren't too far removed from their 11 win campaign in 2007 and should bounce back a bit from last season barring another onslaught of injuries.  However there is little behind MJD in the backfield, they most likely will be starting a rookie at LT, its anyone's guess who’ll emerge as the top receiving target and the defense will be breaking in a new coordinator. The Jags should improve from last year but to think they are going to improve by at least three to four wins seems far fetched.

Prediction:  Under 8 wins

Best bet to win division:  This is a tough call in my opinion. The Colts and Titans should battle it out all year, but both have lost some key parts to their teams.  Indy doesn’t offer much value at +162 and I think it’s kind of a toss up between these two.  However at +300 I will go out on a limb and call out the Texans as the best “value” bet to win the AFC South. Personally I’d proceed with caution and I think there’s better divisions to bet the winner of though.

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New Orleans: 9

2008 saw another year go by where the Saint’s potent aerial attack lead by Drew Brees went unrewarded.  New Orleans owned the most productive offense in the league as they racked up 463 points for, mostly coming through the air from a near record-breaking year by Brees.

Their Achilles heel though was again their play on the defensive side of the ball.  All their offensive production was not enough to keep the ball out of their own end zone as only six teams in the league managed to allow more than the 393 points the Saints defence allowed.  A defence ranked seventeenth vs. the rush, twenty-third vs. the pass and twenty-second in sacks proved to be New Orleans undoing as they went along the 2008 year mostly alternating wins and losses on their way to an 8-8 finish.

New Orleans’s opponents finished ’08 with a combined 127-129 record, but 2009 is set up to have them face the league’s eighth toughest schedule.  In fact the only teams they face this year with a sub-500 record from last year will be the Lions, Bills and Rams.  Of the Saint’s eight wins in 2008, only two of them came against teams with a winning record.  Those were games vs. the Bucs and Falcons, however overall New Orleans struggled within their division going 2-4.  They also struggled on the road, where their 2-6 record was a stark contrast to their 6-2 home mark. 

Changes were made this offseason in an attempt to improve things on the defensive side of the ball.  To start with, Gregg Williams was brought in as Defensive Coordinator.  He’s a veteran Coordinator who’ll be looking to get more out of this group of defenders than he got from his group in Jacksonville last year, as the Jags allowed the fifth most points in the AFC.

On the d-line, Paul Spicer and Anthony Hargrove have been signed to replace the releases of Hollis Thomas and Brian Young, and to provide depth and extra insurance in the almost certain suspensions of Will Smith and Charles Grant from the StarCaps incident.  The line-backing core will also welcome the newly unretired Dan Morgan to the mix.  The secondary has the potential to see a slew of new starters as the team cut S Kevin Kaesviharn and CB Mike McKenzie and lost SS Josh Bullocks in free agency.  In are Safeties Pierson Prioleau and Darren Sharper, along with CBs Jabari Greer and 14^th overall draft selection Malcolm Jenkins who was seen by many as the top CB prospect in this year’s draft.

Outside of signing ex-Patriot FB Heath Evans to replace Mike Karney and parting ways with Deuce McAllister and David Patten, the Saint’s offence remain mostly intact.  So far GM Mickey Loomis hasn’t made any additions to their twenty-eighth ranked rushing attack from last year, however word is he’s be scouring the market to find a veteran bruising back.  Obviously having Reggie Bush sidelined a good portion of the year contributed to the running game's troubles, however there is little doubt the team lacks a proven back that can run inside the tackles.

Success in 2009 will most likely again come down to how far Drew Brees’s arm can carry the team, as he is the unquestioned key cog in New Orleans.  There’s no reason to think Brees won’t have another stellar season, especially with the return of Jeremy Shockey from injury.  However will the improvements on defence be enough, and how will the most likely suspensions of Smith and Grant hurt them?  It’s hard to imagine Brees being able to put up as gaudy of numbers as he did in 2008 and with a seriously competitive schedule facing the Saint’s this year I predict improvement, but not by much.

Prediction:  I agree with the total of 9.  A 9-7 season seems reasonable, so I would either wait to see if the number comes down and take the over, or consider the under.

Atlanta: 8.5

Like the Saints, Atlanta also thrived off their offense last year.  After going through a huge transition from the Michael Vick era, an offense lead by rookie Matt Ryan and newly acquired RB Michael Turner, ranked second in rushing and a respectable fourteenth in passing yards, behind an offensive line that was sixth in sacks allowed.

Finishing 2008 with an 11-5 record and making an unexpected trip to the playoffs was more success than even the most optimistic of Falcons fans could’ve expected.  Atlanta was hot most of the year, playing against teams with a combined .458 win percent, but really finished the season strong going 5-1 in their last six games before bowing out to the Cardinals in the Wildcard round of the playoffs.

In 2009 the bar has been raised and anything short of a season similar to that of ’08, will most likely be deemed a failure.  As potent as the offense was a year ago, Atlanta has added another weapon for Matt Ryan to utilize by prying away TE Tony Gonzalez from the Chiefs for only a second round pick this offseason.  The offense should continue to have time to get set behind the same set of o-line starters as last year, if they can find a competent replacement at LT where Todd Wiener retired.

Where the Falcons fell short last year was on defence as they ranked near the bottom third of the league in both defending the rush and pass, and failed to put much pressure on opposing QBs by producing sacks either.

Several rookies were drafted on the defensive side of the ball, including first round pick DT Peria Jerry, who could help with the pass rush, however outside of UFA MLB Mike Peterson, GM Thomas Dimitroff has so far not done much to improve this unit during the offseason.  In fact the unit will actually have several holes to fill for 2009 as they were purged of several key players in free agency with the losses or decisions to not resign Lawyer Milloy, Keith Brooking, Michael Boley, Domonique Foxworth, Kindal Moorehead and Grady Jackson, to name a few.  In my opinion it’s highly unlikely the team has enough quality pieces left to replace all those players.

The Falcons have the talent on offense to stay competitive with most teams and have the potential to possibly be an eight to nine win team in 2009.  However they will face one of the most daunting schedules this season as they line up to play the league’s fourth toughest.  On top of that, there is a stretch of games from Weeks Five to Eleven which could be of major concern.  Atlanta will have their Bye Week early, as it comes in Week Four, and following that they will make their lone trip out west to play at San Fran.  In Week Six they’ll return home to play Chicago who is coming off their Bye Week, followed by a game in Dallas where the Cowboys will also be coming off a Bye.  In Week Eight Atlanta plays a Monday nighter at division rival New Orleans, only to return home in Week Ten to again play a rested Redskins team coming off their Bye Week.  The fun doesn’t stop there as Weeks Eleven and Twelve see the Falcons play the NFC’s top two teams from last year on the road, where Atlanta was only 4-4, last year, compared to their impressive 7-1 mark at home.  The Falcons play at Carolina in Week Ten, and then finish up this brutal stretch facing a Giants team who, you guessed it, will also be coming off their Bye Week.

So if you’re counting, that seven weeks will see Atlanta make one trip out west, play four teams off a Bye week, play one Monday night contest in a division rival’s stadium, play 5/7 games on the road, play only one team with a sub-500 record from ’08 and face star QBs in Cutler, Romo and Brees, to name a few.  Their games before and after this stretch aren’t much easier, but these games in particular stand out as being truly troublesome.

For a team that has now fully washed its hands of Michael Vick and can put that whole past behind them, I wish them nothing but success in building upon what they started in 2008.  When you think they had eleven wins last year and see the over/under set at 8.5, my first inclination would be to bet the over.  However with what should be a very suspect defence and a potentially overwhelming schedule I think the Falcons will struggle.

Prediction:  Under 8.5 wins

Carolina: 8.5

The Panthers superb season from a year ago has rewarded them in an unkind fashion.  While their ’08 opponents played slightly under the .500 mark at a .488 winning percentage, 2009 will see Carolina tackle at least based on last year’s results, the second toughest schedule.  Their 2009 opponents posted a .592 winning percentage and 151-104-1 record last season.

The Panthers played their way to the top of NFC Standings behind their strong rushing attack, third ranked, and an undefeated mark on their home field, going 8-0.  Unfortunately this hard work, didn’t equate to much playoff success, as despite having a first round bye and home filed advantage, they were thoroughly outplayed and embarrassed in losing to Arizona behind an epically bad performance from QB Jake Delhomme and his six turnovers.

It would appear twenty-one of the last year’s twenty-two starters will be returning to this year’s roster.  This is both a positive and possibly a negative.  While returning the better part of a 12-4 roster can never be seen as a bad thing, the Panthers certainly have places they need to improve.  While their run game was one of the league’s best behind DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart, the passing game only ranked nineteenth in the league.  WRs Mark Jones and D.J. Hackett were lost either through free agency or by being released, and while they may not have been huge contributors, no one has been brought in to replace them or battle for playing time.  The offensive line has also lost some depth with Geoff Hangartner and Frank Omiyale leaving via free agency and the team parting ways with Jeremy Bridges.

On the defensive side, new Defensive Coordinator Ron Meeks will inherit a unit which ranked twentieth vs the run and sixteenth vs the pass.  The secondary was strong in ’08, however loses CB Ken Lucas as a cost-cutting casualty.  Re-signing their own players was key for the Panthers this offseason, which handcuffed them to making any major improvement to the front seven.  If Julius Peppers does get his wish to leave Carolina before or during the season, or if he holds out for any extended period of time, that would obviously seriously impede any progress this unit could make.

While Carolina faces a tough schedule this year, it by no means looks unbearable.  There are also no extended road trips, few short weeks or any major stretches of concerning games.  Delhomme will surely be out to prove his playoff blunder was just a brief blip on an otherwise solid career, and not the sign of QB starting to show his age, as he turns 34 this year.  For a team which has failed to add many new pieces outside of the draft and has lost a few decent depth players this offseason, having their Bye week early in Week Four could cause the team to wear down as the season progresses.  A couple lengthy injuries on either side of the ball would be very costly to this team and I think they will take a step back in 2009.  However they still have most of the same pieces from last year’s team in place for 2009.

Prediction:  Over 8.5 wins

Tampa Bay: 6.5

The Buccaneers were competitive in an ultra competitive NFC South division which saw no team finish worse than 8-8 in 2008.  Unfortunately, after rolling along to a 9-3 record after Week 13, they proceeded to drop all of their final four games, including a home season finale to the Raiders, which left them out of the playoffs and with an identical 9-7 record from the 2007 season.

In 2009, instead of being a team on the cusp of taking the next step and making the playoffs, Tampa will be a team undertaking a complete culture change.  To begin with, last year’s starting QB Jeff Garcia was not retained in free agency and will now be fighting for playing time behind JaMarcus Russell in Oakland.  Someone from Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich or rookie Josh Freeman will have to emerge as a competent starter to take his place.

The coaching staff has gone through a complete over hall as the Bucs will have a new coach, offensive and defensive coordinators, and even a new GM.  Raheem Morris moves up from Secondary Coach to become the new coach, former Boston College head coach Jeff Jagodzinski will run the offense, and Jim Bates will be running things on the defence and implementing a new style of defence, much different from the long-used Tampa-2 of Monte Kiffin.

While some potential stars were brought in with RB Derrick Ward and TE Kellen Winslow, the Bucs lost CB Phillip Buchanon and DT Jovan Haye to free agency and cut all of LB Derrick Brooks, RB Warrick Dunn, WR Ike Hilliard, LB Cato June and WR Joey Galloway.

Ward and Ernest Graham should provide a solid rushing attack, but once again the team should not expect the services of Cadillac Williams, who after coming back from a torn right PCL injury, went down again near the end of last season with a torn left PCL injury.  LG Arron Sears also may not be ready for the start of the season as he is still battling some concussion symptoms.

Like everyone in their division this year, the Bucs are also lined up to face a tough schedule.  (All four NFC South teams rank in the top eight on difficulty of schedule).  Tampa Bay will face the fifth toughest road to the playoffs and actually will only play three teams who had a below .500 record last year:  Those being the Bills, Packers and Seahawks, two of which, Buffalo and Seattle, have made improvements either through free agency and/or players returning from injury. 

This team has added some potential star power and still has enough pieces to be a competitive squad.  However with a completely new coaching staff and philosophy, the departure of many key veterans, their tough schedule and division, at least a three win drop-off from ’08 seems quite possible.

Prediction:  Under 6.5 wins

Best bet to win division:  Carolina Panthers at +240

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