Miami is 1-6 ATS as a 4-point fave or less but they were against @Memphis(-1), @Clippers(-1.5), @Indiana(-2), @Utah(-2.5), @Portland(-3.5) and @Boston(-3.5) with their only win against against Oklahoma City (-2.5) on Christmas Day. What these teams have in common (before they play Miami) was that they hold a good winning percentage when playing at home while catching the Heat in the thick of a road trip.
They play Brooklyn as the second of a 4-game east swing that stretches to Indiana then Toronto with alternate days of rest in between. Brooklyn is set up to look really bad having lost 2 earlier play dates both in Miami with 103-73 (-10) and 102-89 (-8). Not much have changed between team rosters since then and so I really concerned as to why the Heat opened with such a short line.
Miami has dropped to 10-10 and 8-12 ATS on the road after losing to the Celtics. Brooklyn suffered back-to-back losses to Houston and Memphis before winning by 20 against the lowly Magic team. Brooklyn has yet to win against Miami in their last 10 head-to-heads and is only 1-5 ATS/0-6 SU since getting Deron Williams.
The Nets are 6-6 ATS/SU when going up against .500 or better teams.
Long time lurker here. I am not really going to start posting plays but betting angles instead. Here's one I found for tomorrow night.
When majority of the betting public cap games they usually go about like this: If Team A beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, therefore Team A will beat Team C.
A prime example is the Boston @ Philadelphia game. Minnesota came to Philadelphia 3 days ago and floored the home team 105 to 88. The next day we saw a 104-94 win by Boston over the Timberwolves that isn't really as close as the final score would be. Now, Philadelphia hosts Boston as a one point home dog and people would think that Boston is the right play here. 60% of the consensus are on them as I type this.With a looming home-and-home series, I think the both home team will win in their respective games.
Anyway, like I said, public perception of a current team's strenght is usually based on their most recent outing. When a lot of people cap games, they try to find a commonality on both sides; ones they do, they try and use that. Perception should be the Celtics will beat the 76ers and the almost pick em of a line is a gift. I think otherwise. If there's anything, the play is against the Celtics.