Posted Tuesday, June 18, 2013 05:08 AM
Posted Tuesday, June 11, 2013 02:08 PM
This thread wasn't started to endorse a play on the Miami Heat -7 tonight (that's your call), but since we're all having so much fun either following the trend or trying to fade it (d'oh), let's take a closer look at it.
Six of the Heat's bounceback blowout double-digit wins happened during the final three months of the regular season while the other six have obviously happened during the playoffs. We already know that the Heat covered all 12 games. What isn't widely known is that the Heat went just 7-5 ATS in the 1st halves while going a perfect 12-0 ATS in the 2nd halves. In half of the games, the Heat built a large halftime lead of at least 14 points:
66-44 at Sacramento
52-38 at Golden State
60-43 at New Orleans
55-41 vs. Chicago
70-56 at Indiana
52-37 vs. Indiana
In the other six games, the Heat were either losing, tied, or leading by no more than 5 points at the half:
49-49 at Brooklyn
losing 50-44 at Toronto
48-45 at Charlotte
losing 44-40 vs. Indiana
50-45 vs. San Antonio
49-49 at San Antonio
In the 6 games in which the Heat built halftime leads of 14+ points, these were the margins by which they covered the 2nd half lines:
8.5 at Sacramento (getting +1.5 and winning 62-55)
5 at Golden State (getting +2 and winning 40-37)
2.5 at New Orleans (getting a half point and winning 48-46)
19.5 vs. Chicago (laying -3.5 and winning 60-37)
8 at Indiana (getting +4 and winning 44-40)
8 vs. Indiana (getting +1 and winning 47-39)
That's not bad at all, right? In fact, it's pretty good considering they could have taken it easy having already established a huge lead by halftime. Now check out what the Heat have done in the games in which things were still very much undecided at halftime. Here are the margins by which the Heat covered the 2nd half lines of those 6 games:
18 at Brooklyn (laying -2 and winning 56-36)
16 at Toronto (laying -5 and winning 56-35)
8 at Charlotte (laying -1 and winning 41-34.....LeBron, Wade, and Allen all sat out this entire game)
8 vs. Indiana (laying -7 and winning 50-35)
11.5 vs. San Antonio (laying -2.5 and winning 53-39)
14.5 at San Antonio (laying 1.5 and winning 60-44)
Now this is really impressive. Throwing out the meaningless April 5th game at Charlotte in which the Big Two didn't play, the Heat won each of these five 2nd halves by at least 14 points! That means in all 11 bounceback games since January 12th in which LeBron played, the Heat won one half or the other by at least 14 points.
What I'm getting at here is that if the Heat find themselves in a tight one tonight in the 1st half, you should know what to do at halftime - UNLOAD. Or, another excellent idea is to lay the 4 points with the Heat in the 1st half. If you win, great. You can thank me later. If you don't, even if you push, then come over the top at halftime with a bet that is at least twice as large. The trend tells us that you won't get screwed on both bets. In fact, it tells us that if you lose or push the 1st half bet, you will not only win the 2nd half bet, but you will win it with ease.
Posted Tuesday, August 21, 2012 03:21 PM
The Spurs went 18-5 following a loss in the regular season. If you throw out the four games they played with no rest, they went 18-1 following a loss. If you throw out the final game of the regular season (a home game Pop threw to the T-Wolves by pulling his starters in the 3rd quarter so the likes of Aron Baynes could get 13 minutes on the floor), they went 18-0. The Spurs have played two games in the playoffs following a loss. Both were easy wins against the Warriors, 102-92 and 109-91. So that's essentially a perfect 20-0 record for the Spurs this season when playing with rest off a loss.
Those 20 wins resulted in a 13-7 ATS record, which is pretty good, but let's take a closer look at that. Up until mid-March, the Spurs punished almost any opponent who had the misfortune of being on their schedule following any game the Spurs had just lost. Thirteen of these 18 regular season bounceback games were played between the start of the season and March 11th. The Spurs won all 13 while posting a 10-3 ATS record. All ten covers were double-digit blowouts. The 3 non-covers were a 4-point home win over the Grizzlies, a 5-point home win over the Hornets, and a 3-point home win over the Lakers. The average margin of victory in the 13 wins was an intimidating 14.8 points per game.
Beginning around mid-March, Popovich began spreading minutes around to preserve his starters' legs for the playoff run. The Spurs kept winning in this "rested off a loss" situation, but the margins became a lot slimmer. In the last month of the season, they had home wins of 1 point (twice), 2 points, and 7 points (against the pathetic Kings).
So it could be argued that if you threw out the last month of the regular season, a stretch in which the team was downshifted somewhat, the Spurs this season have gone 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS when playing off a loss as a rested team.
Five of those 15 wins occurred following double-digit losses. Here's what the Spurs did as a rested team up until mid-March and in the playoffs in that situation:
On November 7th, the Spurs lost to the Clippers in L.A., 106-84. On November 9th, laying 6 at Sacramento, they won 97-86.
On January 3rd, the Spurs lost to the Knicks in New York, 100-83. On January 5th, laying 13.5 at home to the Sixers, they won 109-86.
On February 8th, the Spurs lost to the Pistons in Detroit, 119-109. On February 10th, laying 2.5 to the Nets in Brooklyn, they won 111-86.
On March 8th, the Spurs lost at home to the Blazers, 136-106. On March 11th, laying 2 at home to the Thunder, they won 105-93.
On May 12th, the Spurs lost to the Warriors in Oakland, 97-87. On May 14th, laying 6.5 at home to the Warriors, the Spurs won, 109-91.
So excluding the last month of the regular season, that's 5 wins by a combined 90 points for the Spurs as a rested team following a double-digit loss. That's an average of exactly 18 points per game. And here they are tonight, the Spurs playing again as a rested team off a double-digit loss, and they don't have to win by 18. Three will be enough.
Posted Sunday, July 03, 2011 06:43 AM
The Tampa Bay Rays enter tonight's game en fuego, having scored a whopping 42 runs during their current 5-game winning streak. By now everyone is familiar with the heartwarming story of how this resilient team picked themselves up after being humiliated in Seattle last Wednesday and then made their way to Anaheim to spend the weekend kicking the crap out of the crappy Angels. Everyone is also very familiar with the Rays' best pitcher, David Price, who enters tonight's home game with a glittering won loss record of 16-4. He currently leads the majors in wins. The man has pitched at least 7 innings in each of his last 11 starts, and allowed a scant 15 earned runs during that time. Pretty awesome, right? And it is, but everybody knows about it, and of course the oddsmakers do, too. So, for the privilege of betting on this red-hot team and its robot named Price, bettors so inclined must lay -260 and up on the Rays to win tonight's game, or, if they want to "avoid that juice", still must lay a bloated -1.5 -130 and up on the runline. Okay, so the price tag on the Rays is steep, but as we all know, you only pay juice if you lose.
Please raise your hand if you detected any sarcasm at all in that paragraph.
Oh, come on! I need to see more than hands that! Yikes! Oh, well. I'll keep going anyways.
Tonight's supposd punching bag for the Rays is the Kansas City Royals, who at 54-67 on the season, are right around where they seem to be every season, buried somewhere in the AL Central with no postseason hopes to help them get out of bed in the morning. Tonight's starting pitcher is a man very few bettors have any respect for, Luke Hochevar. A cursory look at his stats explains why. A 7-11 record and 5.24 ERA in 2012 is nothing for any Rays bettor to be scared of. But that's why I'm here. I'm here to shine a light on why the Royals with Hochevar are a FAR stronger bet tonight than probably anyone imagines.
Here's the bottom line - Luke Hochevar and the Royals are a legitimately dangerous opponent any time he starts after the Royals have lost his last two starts. So far, this situation has come up five times this season, and tonight will be the sixth. Following back-to-back losses in games started by Hochevar, here's what the Royals have done in 2012:
April 25th - beat the Indians in Cleveland 8-2 as a +130 dog (Hochevar 6.1 IP, 2 ER)
May 12th - beat the White Sox in Chicago 5-0 as a +150 dog (Hochevar 7 IP, 0 ER)
May 27th - beat the Orioles in Baltimore 4-2 as a +130 dog (Hochevar 4.2, 1 ER, pulled after 100 pitches)
June 14th - beat the Brewers at home 4-3 as a +105 dog (Hochevar 7.1 IP, 3 ER)
July 31st - beat the Orioles at home 8-3 as a -120 favorite (Hochevar 6 IP, 3 ER)
That's a nice 5-0 for a team that has won only 6 of Hochevar's 19 other starts! This little trend is nice, but it gets even better because this is nothing new for Hochevar and the Royals. Over the last three seasons, Hochevar has started 16 times after the Royals lost his last two starts. The Royals have gone 13-3 in those 16 games. Pretty impressive for a club that's 13 games under .500 this year, finished 20 games under last year, and 28 games under in 2010! In 11 of those 16 games, the Royals were underdogs (the average price was +142). They won 9 of them.
Now rumor has it that a lot of guys think they're stealin' tonight with Rays runline, but before they take that plunge, they might want to know that in those 16 games mentioned above, the Royals went an incredible 15-1 covering the +1.5 runs. Think about this. Over the last three seasons of baseball, people laying the runline against Kansas City when they're in danger of losing a third consecutive Hochevar start have been ROASTED nearly every time! Fifteen out of sixteen! And tonight, Kansas City is again in danger of losing a third consecutive Hochevar start.
Posted Tuesday, February 15, 2011 12:41 PM
After betting against Cliff Lee twice in the month of June, I finally smartened up last week and sent it on the Phillies -1.5 +175 the night Lee shutout the Red Sox, 5-0. With that latest masterpiece, Cliff Lee completed one of the greatest months any starting pitcher has ever submitted. Check it out:
21 hits allowed in 42 innings pitched
28 strikeouts/7 walks
0.21 ERA (he gave up one lonely run for the whole month!)
5 wins 0 losses
32 consecutive shutout innings
3 straight shutouts
That's not human. Who in their right mind would dare bet against this man right now? Well, maybe me. I had the Jays yesterday +160 and +1.5 -105, and it wasn't exactly a confidence-inspiring performance, but I think the time may be ripe for Lee to go out and have himself a terrible outing.
Prior to his June 22nd start in St. Louis, I noticed something about Lee's pitch counts this season. From April 25th to May 6th, Lee threw a total of 332 pitches in three starts. In his next start, going on 4 days rest, Lee was so-so, lasting just 6 innings and 82 pitches while giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs to the Marlins. In his next three starts after that, Lee threw a ridiculous total of 356 pitches! That seemed to catch up to him in his next start, which took place on May 31st in Washington. Again going on 4 days rest, Lee got shelled by the Nationals, allowing 7 hits, 3 walks, and 6 earned runs before getting knocked out in the 6th inning of a 10-2 loss.
Then came the month of June. The first three victims were the Dodgers, Cubs, and Marlins. Lee threw 347 pitches in beating them all. That's where I decided to try and fade him off of three straight taxing starts. Lee was scheduled to pitch June 22nd in St. Louis, and was a -150 favorite against the Pujols-less Cardinals. The one thing I didn't like about the situation, though, was that Lee was going on 5 days rest instead of 4. I decided to plow ahead with my Lee fade anyway, taking the Cards +145. Big mistake. Instead of sputtering, Lee used the extra day of rest to his advantage and went 9 innings in shutting out the Deadbirds on a whopping 126 pitches. I felt shame.
So, I looked ahead to Lee's next turn in the rotation to see if I might try fading him off of 4 starts in which he'd thrown a staggering 473 pitches. But I saw that his next start, which was last Wednesday against the Red Sox, would again have him enjoying 5 days of rest. So instead of betting against him, I went with him, and Lee was The Man once again, pitching another shutout, this time throwing 112 pitches. I felt pride.
But now I'm again contemplating an unthinkable fade of Cliff Lee. This time around, he's taking the ball in Toronto after throwing 585 pitches in his last 5 brilliant starts, except this time, he's going on 4 days of rest. In his five June starts, Lee enjoyed pitching on 5 days rest three times, including the last two. Now, though, I think he's going to show up with much less than his best stuff. In fact, this time he's not even getting a full 4 days. Lee is getting shorted six hours with the 1 ET start instead of the usual night game starting time. Most everyone is expecting another string of zeroes across the scoreboard, but I'll be very surprised if he enjoys another great start.
I just took the sorry Nets +8.5 -110 and ML +365. For those of you who don't know, I frequently get roped into taking big numbers against the mighty Spurs and I never win. No, seriously, never. Check out San Antonio's last 10 games:
January 24th at Golden State - I unloaded on the Warriors +5.5 and ML +200. The Spurs won by 11.
January 26th at Utah - I stupidly took the bitch Jazz +4.5 -108. The Spurs won by 7.
January 29th at home ve. Houston - I unloaded on the Rockets +8.5 and +370. The Spurs won by 13.
February 1st at Portland - I didn't bet anything on this day. The Spurs lost by 13.
February 3rd at the Lakers - I was going to bet the Lakers -3, but didn't. But then at halftime, with the game tied, I took the Lakers -2. The Spurs won by 1.
February 4th at Sacramento - I placed a small bet on the Kings in the first half before realizing I was going to lose again, so I didn't take it any further. The Spurs killed them.
February 8th at Detroit - I fell for the Pistons +7.5. Close game for most of the way, but the Spurs outclassed them in the end by 11.
February 9th at Toronto - Even as I was placing my foolish bets on the Raptors +8 and +305, I knew I was going to lose. And I did. The Spurs entered the 4th quarter down by 3 and won by 11.
February 11th at Philadelphia - I liked the Sixers +3.5 in this game but I was at my threshold of pain when it came to the Spurs. Even knowing the Sixers were a quality home dog, I nevertheless stayed away. It felt weird, like deep down I just didn't want to win. The Spurs lost by 6.
February 12th at Washington - Even I wasn't silly enough to take the Wizards in this matchup. The Spurs won by a lot.
So why did I side tonight with another miserable team against the methodical, merciless Spurs? I'm not sure, but maybe I'm trying to lose on purpose. It's the only explanation that makes sense to me. Bookmaker is doing me no favors either by inviting me to take super juicy moneyline prices against San Antonio. All day long I was tempted into grabbing their +355 and then they got me when they upped the ante to +365 a few minutes before I started typing this.
My bets aren't small tonight, so if you're smart, you know what to do here!