148-105-6 (58%) (+122.2 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 39-25-1
4 unit: 59-37-3
5 unit: 47-36-2
>5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 2-1 (+2.5 units)
5 units: Los Angeles Clippers -3 @ Washington
I'm sure this will be a strong publicly backed play/trap game, but I'm still going to jump on it. This Clippers team has really fallen into a slump lately, looking real pedestrian. That being said even the pedestrian version of the Clippers can beat Washington. The Clippers should be hungry for a win in this one as they try to get back on track. Jamal Crawford is listed as probable for this one which is a big factor for the Clippers, while Bradley Beal and Trevor Booker are doubtful/expected to miss for Washington. I don't see anyone on the Washington roster who matches up well with Blake Griffen and I think defensively the Clippers match up well with Washington and should keep them down around low to mid 90s. That should be enough to get the W both SU and ATS
4 units: Sacramento @ Utah under 199.5
Total has gone under in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games
Total has gone under in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 road games
Total has gone under in 6 of Utah's last 8 home games vs. Sacramento
The injuries are really starting to pile up for Utah. No Hayward, Earl Watson, Raja Bell, or Mo Williams leaves Utah with a VERY thin backcourt. The only active Jazz guards left on the roster: Jamaal Tinsley, Kevin Murphy, Randy Foye, and Alec Burks. These injuries have seemed to effect Utah's scoring as they've dropped to averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last 5. Sacramento has obviously been a joke on the road this season, only averaging 91.2 ppg on the road (86.2ppg over their last 5). I see this game being a slower paced game with Utah winning a 93-99 type game.
146-104-6 (58%) (+119.7 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 39-25-1
4 unit: 57-37-3
5 unit: 47-35-2
>5 units: 1-1
First post in just over 3 weeks. Saturday the 19th represented a real shit storm for me. Got my ass handed to me, lost some $ and then late that night ended up getting t-boned by a drunk driver late that night. Fucked myself up pretty good. Spent just over 2 weeks in the hospital. Back home rehabbing now and back to covers and capping. Hope to get back into a routine. Hopefully my head wasn't rung too bad and I can get on track with some winners.
5 units: Miami @ Toronto +5.5
Mia are 8-18 ATS last 26 Meetings
Tor are 16-6 ATS last 22 Sunday Games
Tor are 13-6 ATS last 19 home games
I wasn't a huge fan of the Raptors trade for Gay initially, but you never know. They looked great against a sleep walking LAC team, but the one thing with Gay is that he potentially could make Toronto a much better defensive team. Gay is one of the few players in the NBA that can give Lebron some problems defensively due to his length. I think Ross and Derozan can cause problems for Dwade. Ultimately I see this game coming down to rebounding. Adding Gay and getting Val back from injury makes Toronto an even better rebounding team. Miami really struggles vs. good rebounding squads. I see them struggling in this one. Toronto and their crowd should really be up for this one. I can't see Miami outside of Chris Bosh really caring too much about this one. Toronto is the play for me.
BOL to everyone. Good to be back.
BONUS SUPERBOWL PLAY:
MAX UNITS: Baltimore +4
SF has struggled against physical teams this year. Baltimores D is really good vs teams that play underneath. SF really has nobody to stretch the Baltimore D. SF's D is weakest deep. Baltimore has the guys to take the top off. I like them to get a couple big pickups and for Jacoby Jones to make 1 or 2 big special teams plays. If this game is a close one (which many are predicting), I'd be worried about having David Akers kicking fgs, and with Baltimores #2 ranked redzone D, SF will have to kick a few.
Key stats:
SF is 1-4 ATS when they give up 4.0+ ypc and 1-4SU. That's all their losses
SF redzone D - 28th
BAL redzone D - 2nd
If Baltimore can score TDs while holding SF to FGs they win.
143-95-6 (60%) (+156.9 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 39-23-1
4 unit: 55-34-3
5 unit: 46-31-2
>5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 7-4 (+14.6 units)
Saturday Plays;
5 units: 1st Half Golden State @ New Orleans -2
3 units: Golden State @ New Orleans -4
This is a risky game to lock in so early with the potential status of Lee and Curry potentially up in the air. Lee i'm pretty sure will play against NO, he returned after rolling his ankle and seemed fine, but with flying you never know, sometimes injuries swell up and GS may play it safe. Curry Could also return, but I'm somewhat doubtful. Curry has shown this ankle injury of his is becoming more of a chronic issue.
Lee and Curry have been the two best players for GS so far this year. If neither of them can go that's really going to hurt them against a truly surging New Orleans team. Eric Gordon returning finally gives NO someone who can score the basketball, and they've turned that into success, winning 6 of their last 7 games, with quality wins over Bos, Hou, SA, and Dal included in that stretch of games.
I like them to get off to a great start early in this one and continue that momentum into another win. I feel odd laying points with a fairly unproven team vs a real scrappy warriors squad, but this is the 3rd game in 4 days for GS. You have to imagine playing Mia and SA will tax a team. Hornets is the play for me.
4 units: Sacramento @ Charlotte over 204.5
Two teams that really push the tempo and have zero concept of what to do on the defensive end of the floor. Last 5 games SAC is giving up an incredible 114ppg. Both teams give up over 103ppg on the season. I see both teams wanting to come out with a good performance in this one. Both teams are playing the 2nd night of a B2B which I believe hurts defence not scoring. Over is the play for me.
Leans:
SAC -1
POR -4
BOL everyone!
136-91-6 (60%) (+142.3 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 38-21-1
4 unit: 52-32-3
5 unit: 43-31-2
>5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 10-3 (+26.7 units)
Friday Plays:
5 units: Golden State +12 @ San Antonio
GS's struggles in SA have been well documented, 27 straight losses, and the loss of Steph Curry really threw GS off against Miami, and will most likely continue to hurt them going forward. I don't buy GS as this large of a dog though. Jarrett Jack is still a serviceable backup, one of the best backup PGs in the league, and GS is still a very scrappy team that matches up very well with this SA team. The last teams that have been greater then 11 point dogs in SA have been MIN, LAL, PHI, NO, and TOR. GS is better then all those teams and really don't deserve to be such a large dog, especially vs a SA team that has shown time and time again they're more then happy to 'just win' regardless of score. I don't see SA being all that motivated to blowout GS while GS should be looking for a bounceback performance from that stinker they threw up vs Miami. I'm expecting a great game, should be fun to watch.
4 units: OKlahoma City -4 @ Dallas
Dallas has played better lately getting 4 straight wins, but I see that streak coming to an end tonight. OKC is simply one of the best 2 teams in the NBA right now and actually have a better D away then they do at home (95.5ppg). Dallas often hangs close with them but I don't see them being able to stick around enough to cover this one. It's one thing to beat HOU, MIN, and MEM, it's a completely different thing to beat OKC.
3 units: Toronto +4 @ Philadelphia
Continue to like the way this Raptor team is playing. There just seems something off with the way Philly has been playing this year. Don't like their roster, don't like their heart, they just seem lost. I believe Toronto wins outright.
Leans:
CHR/ORL over 195.5
TOR/PHI over 190
IND -5 and under 195 - I think Indiana controls tempo. Hou's struggles are real.
Atlanta +6 - Too high a line for these 2 teams. BK may be the new ATL in the way they play.
Denver -10.5 - love the improvements washington has made but hard to go against DEN at home
OKC/DAL over 205.5 - simply a better team, should be high scoring
BOL to everyone!
126-88-6 (59.5%) (+115.6 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3
3 unit: 35-21-1
4 unit: 49-30-3
5 unit: 39-30-2
>5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 2-3 on game lines, 2-4 on halftime plays for 4-7 on the night.
Rough night last night. Got carried away with the halftime plays. Chased when I shouldn't have after the Chicago game went belly up. Going to bounce back today with a winning card. More discipled today and will stick to a smaller number of plays.
5 units: Miami Heat +3 @ Los Angeles Lakers
Miami are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings
The line here seems like a major overreaction to 2 straight Lakers wins vs average to below average opponents. If this game happens with the Lakers on a losing streak instead of a small 2 game winning streak, this line is probably Heat -4 or -5. Heat have struggled recently but you know they'll get up for this game. Was worried about the B2B angle, but with them gutting GS they were able to rest their starters almost the entire second half. Dwight Howard may be in line for a big game in this one vs the small Miami lineup but I don't think it'll be enough. Lakers biggest issue all year has been transition defence. I don't believe 2 wins has solved that problem. Kobe trying to matchup vs the other teams best defender worked well against Milwaukee but seems long term like it will only burn out Kobe. Even in his prime doing what the lakers are asking him to do at both ends of the court would be exhausting. It will be interesting to see how the Kobe as lead perimeter defender does against either Wade or Lebron. It's one thing to lock down a smaller player in Jennings then it is to matchup with a much more physical Wade or Lebron. Getting points with the Heat is a very rare thing. I'm going to take it.
4 units: Milwaukee @ Phoenix -1
Milwaukee has undoubtedly been the better team as of late but I'm taking this game for really 1 reason. Milwaukee has lost 24 straight games in Phoenix. The second longest streak of any team on the road vs any opponent (only beat by GS's losing streak in SA). Laying -1 as a home team is a very small line. I'll take histories side and look for a Phoenix team that's very desperate for a win, to extend Milwaukee's struggles at the US Airways Centre in Phoenix.
BOL to everyone!